Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
So you say you know her well enough to have her preflop range dialed into a VERY specific range, but don't know what she could have when she check/raises the flop? Although your preflop range doesn't make a lot of sense either. You say she limps KQ+? So does that mean she doesn't play any KJ or QJs? That range is just way too specific and not positional.
As for her hands, we can cross out QQ/JJ since she limped pre (only one combo of each anyways). We'll give her 3 combos of 44. How about the other QJ hands? Folding them when limped to in the CO seems tight, even for the nittiest nits. Lets give her most combos of that, so 3 left. So her 2pair + range is 3 combos of chops and 3 combos of you're crushed. Not great. So this really comes down to does she have any KQ? The flop x/r is weird for a hand like that, but something she could definitely be doing on a wet board where she thinks she has the best hand. Even if we just give her the suited comobs, we have the equity needed to call down.
I wouldn't 3-bet the flop. If it's *NEVER* a draw (a conclusion I would not come to easily, I'll trust your read though) then raising is the worst option. Nothing better than you is ever folding, and worse hands that might otherwise bet may decide to fold in the face of a 3-bet. Call down or fold are the only reasonable options. I'd say this hand is a fairly trivial call down.
The real question is the river. It's a safe bet her range is still 44/QJ/KQ. The real question is can we get a call from the KQ hands? I think I'd go small OTR. Maybe like $200 or something that is too good of a price for Qx to fold.
Maybe my range is overly specific but the point was she will happily limp/call strong broadways while open raising big pairs.
I doubt she ever raises KQ here. AQ is the bottom of her raising range OTF.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AAJTo
She probably has AQ.
If she cant have a draw here I just bomb the river trying to get QJ to fold. Maybe she hero calls with a set, you should have a read on her if she turns into a calling station with big hands on flush boards.
She's definitely capable of folding but she also considers me a big bluffer. That being said, I could see this one getting through considering my hand looks quite a bit like a draw (since I would fold almost all my made hands to her flop raise).
Not sure I see much benefit in trying to bluff her off a chop though. Maybe it gets through, but it also just maximizes my losses against 44.
I honestly though about folding OTF but that's just ridiculously tight when we're chopping a good portion fo the time and she might occasionally do this with AQ.