Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader
Why is J9ss T9ss super reasonable. In general, I just don't understand why you can discount flushes just because he checked. I think leading is pretty bad for him because he absolutely can't have air on this river, so leading only makes sense if he turns hands into bluffs, and honestly there aren't that many hands that is likely to be turned into bluffs.
I feel like you've just tunnel visioned into your read that a flush is unlikely, when the other instances are probably even more unlikely.
This is the spot I really was interested in others' opinion on since it was the main reason that led me to shoving for value, so glad you brought it up.
My logic:
Villain has no history with me so should expect me to play ~similarly to the general population.
The general population is checking back a significant portion of their range in my spot (sets, 2p, possibly even straights), and even if villain doesn't think on that level, he should be able to realize the most likely river action if he checks on this board with the river scare card is check/check
Therefore, villain (and this is what I have seen as the standard at LLSNL in this spot, but also what I was curious to hear from other people what they have experienced) will lead most if not all of his flushes here on the river to prevent me from checking back my 2p/set/straight.
So, basically, under normal circumstances vs normal opponents he plays with regularly, it is much more likely for villain to bet and get called by worse than it is for him to check and me to bet worse, so therefore I expect him to have very few flushes when he checks river.