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Is this too spewy? Is this too spewy?

06-08-2019 , 08:19 AM
For those questioning why I'm saying we're value heavy despite offering villain good enough direct odds to call, RIO allows us to bluff more aggressively here
Let 'b' be our turn/river bet size proportional to the pot
Let 'x' be our river bluffing frequency to make villain indifferent between calling/folding Tx.
x = b/(2*b+1)
b = x/(1-2*x)
y = 2x-x^2
y = 18/(18+24) = 3/7
x = 1-2/7*sqrt(7) ~= .244
b = .477

If we bet 15BB on the turn with our entire range and 29BB on the river with 75.6% of our range, then Tx is indifferent between calling/folding on the turn. We shouldn't bet bigger to minimize the damage against slow-plays. Villain should not have a raising range on flop or turn if he has something that can beat an overpair.

For a full solution we would have use much more complex equations to get exact turn/river bet sizes and bluffing frequencies to account for blockers and what happens on each individual river, but this should be pretty close.
Is this too spewy? Quote
06-08-2019 , 08:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
I actually find that people fold to cbets on paired boards almost always. I Cbet almost 100% on boards like this. I would Cbet a lower percentage when its 5 ways, but I still fire often and do so successfully.

How did that board never hit Heros range? He opened in EP. He can easily have an overpair or Tx. If he can have QJs he can have most suited big Tens and probably T9s as well.
I've heard a couple of other people disagree with me, about LLSNL Vs' stickiness on paired boards, but they've all come from fit-or-fold games. In looser post flop games, I find that it's pretty universal.

Having an overpair is not having the board hit you. I didn't say hero could never have value, I said that board didn't hit him. OK, maybe there is a bit of Tx in his perceived range, but very little aside from TT. QJs is near the bottom of EP opening range for most LLSNL Vs, who would limp anything playable below that. Because they tend to project, they are likely to think hero's range is bigger PPs and face cards.
Is this too spewy? Quote
06-08-2019 , 08:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
I've heard a couple of other people disagree with me, about LLSNL Vs' stickiness on paired boards, but they've all come from fit-or-fold games. In looser post flop games, I find that it's pretty universal.

Having an overpair is not having the board hit you. I didn't say hero could never have value, I said that board didn't hit him. OK, maybe there is a bit of Tx in his perceived range, but very little aside from TT. QJs is near the bottom of EP opening range for most LLSNL Vs, who would limp anything playable below that. Because they tend to project, they are likely to think hero's range is bigger PPs and face cards.
Exactly....and most player would never bet QJ on this T22 flop so they assume nobody else would either. So most players would assume Hero has a pp.
Is this too spewy? Quote
06-08-2019 , 08:35 AM
I was talking about board hitting, but yes most players seem to think that if you bet a paired board you have a PP. The thing is, at most games, that doesn't seem to make them fold. They think "no way you hit trips! I has a pair, it might be bigger than yours." Sometimes they even call with overs, because "if I hit my ace, imma get paid!"

In my experience, if you are 3+ ways on a paired flop, there is usually at least one V thinking that way. I get ridic value on paired boards, and bluff them basically never multi-way. HU is different, but V dependent.
Is this too spewy? Quote
06-08-2019 , 08:38 AM
yes too spewy
Is this too spewy? Quote
06-08-2019 , 09:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
I was talking about board hitting, but yes most players seem to think that if you bet a paired board you have a PP. The thing is, at most games, that doesn't seem to make them fold. They think "no way you hit trips! I has a pair, it might be bigger than yours." Sometimes they even call with overs, because "if I hit my ace, imma get paid!"

In my experience, if you are 3+ ways on a paired flop, there is usually at least one V thinking that way. I get ridic value on paired boards, and bluff them basically never multi-way. HU is different, but V dependent.
If that's the way your games play then clearly you cant play this hand the way OP did. Thats one of the dangers of posting hands on a forum like this. There are so many different types of games around the Country. Even by day or time of day.
Is this too spewy? Quote
06-08-2019 , 09:37 AM
Still interesting to get different points of view though.
Is this too spewy? Quote

      
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