Hi All,

1/2 NL. 3 to 4 hours into session. Hero has $800 or so after having an incredible run of cards. Image is that I am decently tight and know what I'm doing (almost all monsters I've shown down have been with strong pre-flop hands), but mostly probably just someone who can't miss that day.

Villain has $300/$350... my read is that he is extremely tight/weak. One of those people who raises huge with big hands because he hates getting "sucked out on".

In addition, there are some very fishy players at the table that hero would prefer to play against in general.

Villain is UTG + 3, someone makes standard raise in front (to $7 or so) and villain raises to $25. Folds to hero in SB with JJ. I fold. Is this ridiculous?

My rationale:
- I feel strongly that $25 from this guy is JJ+ and AK. MAYBE TT, MAYBE AQs.
- So if I call or raise, I'm going to be playing a very large pot out of position with JJ where I don't feel like it's likely that I even have the best starting hand.
- If an overcard comes, probably hard for me to continue. If JJ flops an overpair and he bets large, I'm going to have to decide if I want to play for stacks with JJ.
- Why bother with this when there's a guy at the other end of the table who calls everything and pays off every bet?

On the other hand, if my read is (exactly) right, then maybe he will let me know clearly enough on the flop if I'm beat and I can get away from the JJ against AA/KK/QQ, or AK that pairs, but he'll let me off the hook with AK on a low card board?

Thoughts?

No, if villain 3 betting is weak, tight, I'm folding JJ in disgust.

I don't think this is a necessary fold or even a good one. There are 16 combos of AK 4 combos of AQS 6 Combos of 1010 if we cut the 1010 combos to 1/2 assuming he might not three bet all the time. There are still 23 Combos that you beat on low flops. On the other hand there are 18 combos of hands that beat you. However, an important factor here is your opponents range is well defined yours might not seem to be (or at least as far as villain perceives it) . That is a huge advantage in your favor. Given that your opponent might play the hand straightforward post flop even OOP this might be an easy call.

Yes this is ridiculous. Price is right to call the $25, see a flop and play some poker. V won’t put you in any tough spots.

Your rationale seems backwards. A guy that pays off every bet is exactly why you want to play here. Flop a set, insert money into pot, stack chips.

We can't set mine for $25 here? If he has $350, we have a 14 to 1 ratio for his stack and can profitably set mine with JJ here.

I flat and set-mine. Could also play some poker post if he's that tight -- might even make him fold on scary turns, etc.

twicheroo, the player that pays off every bet was a different one (not in this hand). Just saying I had a mentality of why not just wait for other situations to play against a calling station as opposed to risk mixing it up with this tighter player in battle of big pocket pairs.

Sounds like raising at least is not the way to go. Set mining wasn't something I had been thinking about but makes a lot of sense given our depth I guess. So people would consider flatting here with 77+, etc, as well? Thanks for the responses.

I had already spiked a set of JJ once that day, as well as spiked a J and turned it into quads on another hand. So it was either very unlikely that I would do it again, or a complete lock, depending on how you think luck works ;-)

I think a lot of this depends on how he plays post-flop? Is he c-betting unimproved overs? Is his bet-sizing on the floor with unimproved overs different from the protect your hand over bets you've noticed from him?

If you won't get more info from his flop bet, I at least see the theory for folding, but agree that calling and set-mining is better given stack sizes.