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Old 03-22-2019, 07:57 AM   #26
kookiemonster
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

bet the flop
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Old 03-22-2019, 09:53 AM   #27
DannyAIC
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss View Post
So when is the part where OP comes back to the thread and brags about how he soul read UTG for 34s, snapped off a bluff, and we're all dumb for having folded this hand?

If you're going to bluff at this pot, maybe start by potting the flop and going from there.
Doug Polk did a whole video about how silly some of these hero folds, and calls are and this hand would be a perfect example of it.
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Old 03-22-2019, 02:13 PM   #28
Ab5olution
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

Quote:
Originally Posted by fightingillini View Post
I want to know why you thought that 3-betting to $300 on the turn would work.

The pot is $445 and it costs V $215 to call. You're giving him better than 2-1 pot odds. What is V's value that will raise to $85 and fold to $215 more? A loose player isn't going to fold a jack there. If you flopped a set, why are you checking when all the others checked? Your play is saying that you turned a set of 7s. But even then, an action player will raise 77 on the button a lot of the time. Your story doesn't make any sense.

Jack pairs on the river. He bets a little under half pot. What hands could he be bluffing with? There aren't many. A couple of straight draws. But mostly you will see a full house and V hopes that Hero made trip jacks. Fold the river.

Your biggest mistake is preflop. Why are you limping A3off on the button. That's terrible. Fold or raise to $50.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosines11 View Post
All other action aside, the river lead from V says he absolutely has it. Don't see how you can consider anything other than folding.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyAIC View Post
The edit doesn't change anyone's sentiment.

Pre is bad, but not as crazy as some make it out to be. It's not like you called a raise with it.

The turn: Why are you 4 betting with nothing but a gutshot when the only money you have invested is $5? Surely there are better spots.

As far as your edit goes, look at it again, and answer it. Does it make sense for him to bomb with just a jack? No, it doesn't. He probably has a boat himself and was ecstatic that you raised the turn.

There's no way he has ANY bluffs in this spot. Think about it, he's betting into you, after he saw you show an incredible amount of strength on the turn. So if he's bluffing with 64 here he's either incredibly stupid, or so smart that he knows you have exactly what you have.

Even if he's bombing with a jack.....you're beat. Even if he's bombing with 52....you're beat.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan View Post
This hand should cost you max 1bb - bad turn.

I get what you're thinking about, but 3k deep you have to think he also has some legit raise-call hands in range. Nether of you have a jack that isn't a boat, and there aren't many of those.

You called and he had 75 or 98 or 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by MogFish View Post
You rep literally nothing with turn cold 3 bet. You would even bet 77 on flop.
Thanks for the opinions everyone. I know the turn is questionable at best. I basically tried to squeeze in position against 2 players that are capable of making plays. I tried to rep atleast 2 pair, 57s and some sets. I also don't think 77 is an automatic bet on the flop and a turned set is possible. I don't think anyone on this table is capable of rebluffing me, thinking my range is capped. So I did make a spewy play.

As played on the river, I think the big factors into deciding whether to hero call or not is that:
1. Would he donk bet most of his jacks.
2. Would he turn a hand like 52 into a bluff.
3. Would he force a bluff with a missed draw knowing he has no showdown equity.

I don't think... as played, a fold on the river is as clear cut as you guys think.

1. I'm probably betting most of my Jacks, and always bluffing or folding my bluffs. So if he had a boat, why bet? Why not lure a bluff from me or get a Jack to bet and check raise all in? He could be trying to get value from weak jacks but I'm probably not limping with them anyways. Also maybe a hand like 52s,57s can hero call that would otherwise check. Maybe to get a hand like 86 to fold if he had a smaller straight draw.
I think in his position, donking out with most jacks is incredibly optimistic if he hopes to get called by weaker. He is opening himself for a shove and will be in a difficult spot.

2. Possible, but very unlikely. Most people at these stakes are not capable of making these boat blocker bluffs. Another factor to consider is his bet sizing. Is he ever going to make me fold a big hand with betting 600 into 700?

3. Board is J527J, possible open ended straight draws on the turn that are calling are: 43, 64 and 86. Mix in some gut shots and that weighs it even more towards a call. Player is loose and limpy so even offsuit hands are in his range. Awkward spot for villain indeed, missed draw, with no showdown equity and out of position. How likely is he to give up or fire. That is the question. I look super strong but my range is capped. Could argue that some villains would only shove or fold the turn with a draw.

According to my assumptions, I gave villain this range on the river. All the possible monsters plus missed straight draws:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,64s,43s,AJo,J7o,J5o,8 6o,64o,43o
A3o is 61.11% against that range.

Add in all those 2 pairs combos he could of had but turned his hand into a bluff:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,75s,72s,64s,52s,43s,A Jo,J7o,J5o,86o,75o,64o,52o,43o
A3o is 47.83%
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Old 03-22-2019, 02:22 PM   #29
snowman
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab5olution View Post
Thanks for the opinions everyone. I know the turn is questionable at best. I basically tried to squeeze in position against 2 players that are capable of making plays. I tried to rep atleast 2 pair, 57s and some sets. I also don't think 77 is an automatic bet on the flop and a turned set is possible. I don't think anyone on this table is capable of rebluffing me, thinking my range is capped. So I did make a spewy play.

As played on the river, I think the big factors into deciding whether to hero call or not is that:
1. Would he donk bet most of his jacks.
2. Would he turn a hand like 52 into a bluff.
3. Would he force a bluff with a missed draw knowing he has no showdown equity.

I don't think... as played, a fold on the river is as clear cut as you guys think.

1. I'm probably betting most of my Jacks, and always bluffing or folding my bluffs. So if he had a boat, why bet? Why not lure a bluff from me or get a Jack to bet and check raise all in? He could be trying to get value from weak jacks but I'm probably not limping with them anyways. Also maybe a hand like 52s,57s can hero call that would otherwise check. Maybe to get a hand like 86 to fold if he had a smaller straight draw.
I think in his position, donking out with most jacks is incredibly optimistic if he hopes to get called by weaker. He is opening himself for a shove and will be in a difficult spot.

2. Possible, but very unlikely. Most people at these stakes are not capable of making these boat blocker bluffs. Another factor to consider is his bet sizing. Is he ever going to make me fold a big hand with betting 600 into 700?

3. Board is J527J, possible open ended straight draws on the turn that are calling are: 43, 64 and 86. Mix in some gut shots and that weighs it even more towards a call. Player is loose and limpy so even offsuit hands are in his range. Awkward spot for villain indeed, missed draw, with no showdown equity and out of position. How likely is he to give up or fire. That is the question. I look super strong but my range is capped. Could argue that some villains would only shove or fold the turn with a draw.

According to my assumptions, I gave villain this range on the river. All the possible monsters plus missed straight draws:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,64s,43s,AJo,J7o,J5o,8 6o,64o,43o
A3o is 61.11% against that range.

Add in all those 2 pairs combos he could of had but turned his hand into a bluff:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,75s,72s,64s,52s,43s,A Jo,J7o,J5o,86o,75o,64o,52o,43o
A3o is 47.83%
OLD SAYING BUT A GOOD ONE

WINNERS FIND A REASON TO FOLD
FISH LOOK FOR A REASON TO CALL
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Old 03-22-2019, 02:35 PM   #30
XtraScratch8
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab5olution View Post

According to my assumptions, I gave villain this range on the river. All the possible monsters plus missed straight draws:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,64s,43s,AJo,J7o,J5o,8 6o,64o,43o
A3o is 61.11% against that range.

Add in all those 2 pairs combos he could of had but turned his hand into a bluff:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,75s,72s,64s,52s,43s,A Jo,J7o,J5o,86o,75o,64o,52o,43o
A3o is 47.83%
The best thing would be if you pulled out a pencil, paper and calculator and started doing this math out loud at the table. That would make you my favourite person ever.
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Old 03-22-2019, 02:56 PM   #31
hitchens97
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab5olution View Post
Thanks for the opinions everyone. I know the turn is questionable at best. I basically tried to squeeze in position against 2 players that are capable of making plays. I tried to rep atleast 2 pair, 57s and some sets. I also don't think 77 is an automatic bet on the flop and a turned set is possible. I don't think anyone on this table is capable of rebluffing me, thinking my range is capped. So I did make a spewy play.

As played on the river, I think the big factors into deciding whether to hero call or not is that:
1. Would he donk bet most of his jacks.
2. Would he turn a hand like 52 into a bluff.
3. Would he force a bluff with a missed draw knowing he has no showdown equity.

I don't think... as played, a fold on the river is as clear cut as you guys think.

1. I'm probably betting most of my Jacks, and always bluffing or folding my bluffs. So if he had a boat, why bet? Why not lure a bluff from me or get a Jack to bet and check raise all in? He could be trying to get value from weak jacks but I'm probably not limping with them anyways. Also maybe a hand like 52s,57s can hero call that would otherwise check. Maybe to get a hand like 86 to fold if he had a smaller straight draw.
I think in his position, donking out with most jacks is incredibly optimistic if he hopes to get called by weaker. He is opening himself for a shove and will be in a difficult spot.

2. Possible, but very unlikely. Most people at these stakes are not capable of making these boat blocker bluffs. Another factor to consider is his bet sizing. Is he ever going to make me fold a big hand with betting 600 into 700?

3. Board is J527J, possible open ended straight draws on the turn that are calling are: 43, 64 and 86. Mix in some gut shots and that weighs it even more towards a call. Player is loose and limpy so even offsuit hands are in his range. Awkward spot for villain indeed, missed draw, with no showdown equity and out of position. How likely is he to give up or fire. That is the question. I look super strong but my range is capped. Could argue that some villains would only shove or fold the turn with a draw.

According to my assumptions, I gave villain this range on the river. All the possible monsters plus missed straight draws:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,64s,43s,AJo,J7o,J5o,8 6o,64o,43o
A3o is 61.11% against that range.

Add in all those 2 pairs combos he could of had but turned his hand into a bluff:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,75s,72s,64s,52s,43s,A Jo,J7o,J5o,86o,75o,64o,52o,43o
A3o is 47.83%
Ok time for results...
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Old 03-22-2019, 03:07 PM   #32
DannyAIC
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab5olution View Post
Thanks for the opinions everyone. I know the turn is questionable at best. I basically tried to squeeze in position against 2 players that are capable of making plays. I tried to rep atleast 2 pair, 57s and some sets. I also don't think 77 is an automatic bet on the flop and a turned set is possible. I don't think anyone on this table is capable of rebluffing me, thinking my range is capped. So I did make a spewy play.

As played on the river, I think the big factors into deciding whether to hero call or not is that:
1. Would he donk bet most of his jacks.
2. Would he turn a hand like 52 into a bluff.
3. Would he force a bluff with a missed draw knowing he has no showdown equity.

I don't think... as played, a fold on the river is as clear cut as you guys think.

1. I'm probably betting most of my Jacks, and always bluffing or folding my bluffs. So if he had a boat, why bet? Why not lure a bluff from me or get a Jack to bet and check raise all in? He could be trying to get value from weak jacks but I'm probably not limping with them anyways. Also maybe a hand like 52s,57s can hero call that would otherwise check. Maybe to get a hand like 86 to fold if he had a smaller straight draw.
I think in his position, donking out with most jacks is incredibly optimistic if he hopes to get called by weaker. He is opening himself for a shove and will be in a difficult spot.

2. Possible, but very unlikely. Most people at these stakes are not capable of making these boat blocker bluffs. Another factor to consider is his bet sizing. Is he ever going to make me fold a big hand with betting 600 into 700?

3. Board is J527J, possible open ended straight draws on the turn that are calling are: 43, 64 and 86. Mix in some gut shots and that weighs it even more towards a call. Player is loose and limpy so even offsuit hands are in his range. Awkward spot for villain indeed, missed draw, with no showdown equity and out of position. How likely is he to give up or fire. That is the question. I look super strong but my range is capped. Could argue that some villains would only shove or fold the turn with a draw.

According to my assumptions, I gave villain this range on the river. All the possible monsters plus missed straight draws:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,64s,43s,AJo,J7o,J5o,8 6o,64o,43o
A3o is 61.11% against that range.

Add in all those 2 pairs combos he could of had but turned his hand into a bluff:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,75s,72s,64s,52s,43s,A Jo,J7o,J5o,86o,75o,64o,52o,43o
A3o is 47.83%
This is good analysis, and it seems like you've thought about it quite a bit. Ask yourself two questions though:

1. Be honest with yourself, if not with us. did you think about all this at the table?

2. Do you really believe you should have been put into this position in the first place?

That's all. You do you. to me this is an extremely high variance play that is too often wrong, that I would never make this call.
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Old 03-22-2019, 05:17 PM   #33
Amanaplan
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

You can flat the btn but do so knowing if it gets heads up you are prepared to call down 257JQKA, maybe a 3 and also calling a 4 if he bets big.
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Old 03-22-2019, 06:43 PM   #34
matzah_ball
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

The question is, why would villain ever be bluffing here? What’s he trying to fold? Unless you’re known to show up with airballs in huge pots all the time, I guess.
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Old 03-22-2019, 07:28 PM   #35
fightingillini
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab5olution View Post
Thanks for the opinions everyone. I know the turn is questionable at best. I basically tried to squeeze in position against 2 players that are capable of making plays. I tried to rep atleast 2 pair, 57s and some sets. I also don't think 77 is an automatic bet on the flop and a turned set is possible. I don't think anyone on this table is capable of rebluffing me, thinking my range is capped. So I did make a spewy play.

As played on the river, I think the big factors into deciding whether to hero call or not is that:
1. Would he donk bet most of his jacks.
2. Would he turn a hand like 52 into a bluff.
3. Would he force a bluff with a missed draw knowing he has no showdown equity.

I don't think... as played, a fold on the river is as clear cut as you guys think.

1. I'm probably betting most of my Jacks, and always bluffing or folding my bluffs. So if he had a boat, why bet? Why not lure a bluff from me or get a Jack to bet and check raise all in? He could be trying to get value from weak jacks but I'm probably not limping with them anyways. Also maybe a hand like 52s,57s can hero call that would otherwise check. Maybe to get a hand like 86 to fold if he had a smaller straight draw.
I think in his position, donking out with most jacks is incredibly optimistic if he hopes to get called by weaker. He is opening himself for a shove and will be in a difficult spot.

2. Possible, but very unlikely. Most people at these stakes are not capable of making these boat blocker bluffs. Another factor to consider is his bet sizing. Is he ever going to make me fold a big hand with betting 600 into 700?

3. Board is J527J, possible open ended straight draws on the turn that are calling are: 43, 64 and 86. Mix in some gut shots and that weighs it even more towards a call. Player is loose and limpy so even offsuit hands are in his range. Awkward spot for villain indeed, missed draw, with no showdown equity and out of position. How likely is he to give up or fire. That is the question. I look super strong but my range is capped. Could argue that some villains would only shove or fold the turn with a draw.

According to my assumptions, I gave villain this range on the river. All the possible monsters plus missed straight draws:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,64s,43s,AJo,J7o,J5o,8 6o,64o,43o
A3o is 61.11% against that range.

Add in all those 2 pairs combos he could of had but turned his hand into a bluff:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,75s,72s,64s,52s,43s,A Jo,J7o,J5o,86o,75o,64o,52o,43o
A3o is 47.83%
The problem with your analysis is that you're assuming that V will bluff ALL of his missed straight draws, plus V would have to call your 3-bet 100% of the time with them. Why would you assume that? That will never happen. You 3-bet him on the turn, and V called! Then he led the river when the jack paired. Your play is indicating that you have a set on the turn which will now be a full house. So bluffing with a missed straight draw is pretty much suicide.

You are getting just over 2-1 pot odds. Given the board and betting action and that you 3-bet the turn, V is bluffing less than 5% here, and I may be generous. You have to fold.
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Old 03-22-2019, 07:40 PM   #36
hitchens97
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

Quote:
Originally Posted by matzah_ball View Post
The question is, why would villain ever be bluffing here? What’s he trying to fold? Unless you’re known to show up with airballs in huge pots all the time, I guess.
And not just on the river, but on the turn.

He's raising with 7 people left to act on the turn...that strikes me as very unlikely to be a bluff or even a semi-bluff, and even if everyone has nothing, you know some dude is going to barrel off with some nonsense like A3o.
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Old 03-23-2019, 12:27 AM   #37
Ab5olution
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyAIC View Post
This is good analysis, and it seems like you've thought about it quite a bit. Ask yourself two questions though:

1. Be honest with yourself, if not with us. did you think about all this at the table?

2. Do you really believe you should have been put into this position in the first place?

That's all. You do you. to me this is an extremely high variance play that is too often wrong, that I would never make this call.
1. Basically, I thought about all this. Reason why I really considered calling.

2. No

Quote:
Originally Posted by matzah_ball View Post
The question is, why would villain ever be bluffing here? What’s he trying to fold? Unless you’re known to show up with airballs in huge pots all the time, I guess.
That's what I am wondering as well. I look super strong and a bluff from villain's end would be just as insane as me. Could be desperation bluff from a hand like a miss draw and trying to get a counter fitted 2 pair to fold. Maybe make other straight draws to fold.

Quote:
Originally Posted by fightingillini View Post
The problem with your analysis is that you're assuming that V will bluff ALL of his missed straight draws, plus V would have to call your 3-bet 100% of the time with them. Why would you assume that? That will never happen. You 3-bet him on the turn, and V called! Then he led the river when the jack paired. Your play is indicating that you have a set on the turn which will now be a full house. So bluffing with a missed straight draw is pretty much suicide.

You are getting just over 2-1 pot odds. Given the board and betting action and that you 3-bet the turn, V is bluffing less than 5% here, and I may be generous. You have to fold.
Can assume alot of things. But I don't think an open ended straight draw from V is out of realm of possibility. Keep in mind that this is loose and spewy player. If my play is indicating that I have a boat and a bluff would never happen from V, then what is he betting with? Limped JJ or J7? Another question is, why not check raise with those hands? If I'm bluffing, I'm betting most of the time. If I got a Jack, I'm betting. If I got a boat, I'm betting. Only thing that makes sense is that he is d-betting to get value from hands that can call but would check behind such as, counter fitted 2 pairs and maybe some weak jacks.
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Old 03-23-2019, 03:01 AM   #38
BackDoorFlush
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

This entire hand is epic spew. OP clearly suffers from imustwineveryhanditis.
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Old 03-23-2019, 10:34 AM   #39
overun
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab5olution View Post
1. Basically, I thought about all this. Reason why I really considered calling.



2. No







That's what I am wondering as well. I look super strong and a bluff from villain's end would be just as insane as me. Could be desperation bluff from a hand like a miss draw and trying to get a counter fitted 2 pair to fold. Maybe make other straight draws to fold.







Can assume alot of things. But I don't think an open ended straight draw from V is out of realm of possibility. Keep in mind that this is loose and spewy player. If my play is indicating that I have a boat and a bluff would never happen from V, then what is he betting with? Limped JJ or J7? Another question is, why not check raise with those hands? If I'm bluffing, I'm betting most of the time. If I got a Jack, I'm betting. If I got a boat, I'm betting. Only thing that makes sense is that he is d-betting to get value from hands that can call but would check behind such as, counter fitted 2 pairs and maybe some weak jacks.
I think you're assuming villain thinks about all this stuff. You just said he's loose and spewy, which don not seem like the hallmarks of a thinking player

So, yes he could be bluffing. But if he had a hand like Jx+, he's just going to bet it because he doesn't know any better. He's not going through the thought process of, "oh, I can check here and let him bluff with all his missed hands and value own himself with his good hands." And by Jx, you can give him ALL Jx because again, he's loose and spewy.

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Old 03-23-2019, 10:45 AM   #40
salom16
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Re: Time for a hero call at 2/5?

always hero call the lower pairs if you underbet the flop
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