Quote:
Originally Posted by fightingillini
I want to know why you thought that 3-betting to $300 on the turn would work.
The pot is $445 and it costs V $215 to call. You're giving him better than 2-1 pot odds. What is V's value that will raise to $85 and fold to $215 more? A loose player isn't going to fold a jack there. If you flopped a set, why are you checking when all the others checked? Your play is saying that you turned a set of 7s. But even then, an action player will raise 77 on the button a lot of the time. Your story doesn't make any sense.
Jack pairs on the river. He bets a little under half pot. What hands could he be bluffing with? There aren't many. A couple of straight draws. But mostly you will see a full house and V hopes that Hero made trip jacks. Fold the river.
Your biggest mistake is preflop. Why are you limping A3off on the button. That's terrible. Fold or raise to $50.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosines11
All other action aside, the river lead from V says he absolutely has it. Don't see how you can consider anything other than folding.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyAIC
The edit doesn't change anyone's sentiment.
Pre is bad, but not as crazy as some make it out to be. It's not like you called a raise with it.
The turn: Why are you 4 betting with nothing but a gutshot when the only money you have invested is $5? Surely there are better spots.
As far as your edit goes, look at it again, and answer it. Does it make sense for him to bomb with just a jack? No, it doesn't. He probably has a boat himself and was ecstatic that you raised the turn.
There's no way he has ANY bluffs in this spot. Think about it, he's betting into you, after he saw you show an incredible amount of strength on the turn. So if he's bluffing with 64 here he's either incredibly stupid, or so smart that he knows you have exactly what you have.
Even if he's bombing with a jack.....you're beat. Even if he's bombing with 52....you're beat.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
This hand should cost you max 1bb - bad turn.
I get what you're thinking about, but 3k deep you have to think he also has some legit raise-call hands in range. Nether of you have a jack that isn't a boat, and there aren't many of those.
You called and he had 75 or 98 or 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by MogFish
You rep literally nothing with turn cold 3 bet. You would even bet 77 on flop.
Thanks for the opinions everyone. I know the turn is questionable at best. I basically tried to squeeze in position against 2 players that are capable of making plays. I tried to rep atleast 2 pair, 57s and some sets. I also don't think 77 is an automatic bet on the flop and a turned set is possible. I don't think anyone on this table is capable of rebluffing me, thinking my range is capped. So I did make a spewy play.
As played on the river, I think the big factors into deciding whether to hero call or not is that:
1. Would he donk bet most of his jacks.
2. Would he turn a hand like 52 into a bluff.
3. Would he force a bluff with a missed draw knowing he has no showdown equity.
I don't think... as played, a fold on the river is as clear cut as you guys think.
1. I'm probably betting most of my Jacks, and always bluffing or folding my bluffs. So if he had a boat, why bet? Why not lure a bluff from me or get a Jack to bet and check raise all in? He could be trying to get value from weak jacks but I'm probably not limping with them anyways. Also maybe a hand like 52s,57s can hero call that would otherwise check. Maybe to get a hand like 86 to fold if he had a smaller straight draw.
I think in his position, donking out with most jacks is incredibly optimistic if he hopes to get called by weaker. He is opening himself for a shove and will be in a difficult spot.
2. Possible, but very unlikely. Most people at these stakes are not capable of making these boat blocker bluffs. Another factor to consider is his bet sizing. Is he ever going to make me fold a big hand with betting 600 into 700?
3. Board is J527J, possible open ended straight draws on the turn that are calling are: 43, 64 and 86. Mix in some gut shots and that weighs it even more towards a call. Player is loose and limpy so even offsuit hands are in his range. Awkward spot for villain indeed, missed draw, with no showdown equity and out of position. How likely is he to give up or fire. That is the question. I look super strong but my range is capped. Could argue that some villains would only shove or fold the turn with a draw.
According to my assumptions, I gave villain this range on the river. All the possible monsters plus missed straight draws:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,64s,43s,AJo,J7o,J5o,8 6o,64o,43o
A3o is 61.11% against that range.
Add in all those 2 pairs combos he could of had but turned his hand into a bluff:
77,55,22,AJs,J7s,J5s,J2s,86s,75s,72s,64s,52s,43s,A Jo,J7o,J5o,86o,75o,64o,52o,43o
A3o is 47.83%
