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Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL

05-22-2014 , 07:20 PM
1/3 NL 9 handed
Hero (BB ~300): Young 20s nerdy white guy. Down a buy-in for the session, TAG image.
V1 (UTG ~200): 60s Asian regular. Usually plays 2/5, but plays very straightforward. Usually open raises small w/ weakness (2-3 BB's) and large w/ strength (4+ BB's) pre.
V2 (Button ~250): 30s white guy, casual/recreational player. He rarely raises pre, and no one involved has been 3-betting at all over the past 2 hours.

The hand:
V1 (UTG) opens to 12, V2 (Button) 3bets to 25. Hero looks at JJ on BB, action?

Honestly, all options look pretty bad to me based on stacks and player tendencies. Thoughts??
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-22-2014 , 07:59 PM
Given the descriptions, this is an easy fold pf. Yeah, I know JJ is a good hand. However the vast majority of LLSNL players lose money with JJ unless they hit a set. You're not getting enough IO to set mine and I take it that a big hand for the V1 is QQ+, AK. You're doing pretty horribly against that range, let alone against V2's range.

Whatever you do, don't tell anyone you folded JJ. As far as they know, you could and probably did have 72o and wisely got out of the way.
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-22-2014 , 08:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Given the descriptions, this is an easy fold pf. Yeah, I know JJ is a good hand. However the vast majority of LLSNL players lose money with JJ unless they hit a set. You're not getting enough IO to set mine and I take it that a big hand for the V1 is QQ+, AK. You're doing pretty horribly against that range, let alone against V2's range.

Whatever you do, don't tell anyone you folded JJ. As far as they know, you could and probably did have 72o and wisely got out of the way.
How much IO do you think he needs to set mine?

I would call and if I hit a set, would fast play. If there is one over to the flop, I would call one street and fold to a double barrel. If we have the overpair, I would b/f.
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-22-2014 , 08:20 PM
This would be a thin but not terrible situation for set mining if hero was last to act. The stack sizes put hero in a good position to stack V2 if hero hits a set and V2 has the over pair. The problem is that V1 may still come over the top. His bet size says he has a big hand and stack sizes leave him little option but fold or shove now. This is a marginal situation for set mining at best, and the risk of V1 coming over the top makes folding the best option.
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-22-2014 , 11:08 PM
easy fold and folds you make all the time in no limit. get used to it.
you dont set mine for about 10% of stack sizes. and you dont call double raises in the middle where you can get shoved on.
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 08:34 AM
Sad but trivial fold. If no one has 3bet in 2 hours I think we can eliminate AK from the 3bettor's range. We also have to contend with the EP player who appears to be at or near the top of his range based on sizing tell.
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 10:03 AM
The only way I can see justifying a call is I am over 90% sure V1 is gonna flat and I think I have the implied odds to set mine. If I miss my set I almost always have to fold flop.
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 11:34 AM
jacks can be a good hand to make money on or a bad hand you will lose with. it depends on your opponents and what they seem to have. here we can see they have bigger hands so go out. what are you going to do if it comes all small. those that say they set mine will still play on and get to see a bigger pair.
your hand is only as good as your opponents hand is bad.
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 11:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaeR2DraH
1/3 NL 9 handed
Hero (BB ~300): Young 20s nerdy white guy. Down a buy-in for the session, TAG image.
V1 (UTG ~200): 60s Asian regular. Usually plays 2/5, but plays very straightforward. Usually open raises small w/ weakness (2-3 BB's) and large w/ strength (4+ BB's) pre.
V2 (Button ~250): 30s white guy, casual/recreational player. He rarely raises pre, and no one involved has been 3-betting at all over the past 2 hours.

The hand:
V1 (UTG) opens to 12, V2 (Button) 3bets to 25. Hero looks at JJ on BB, action?

Honestly, all options look pretty bad to me based on stacks and player tendencies. Thoughts??
Grunch:

Call and play poker post flop... We can't fold and raising seems bad.... We can set mine profitably and we don't have to go broke on a 10 high flop... Bet folding low flops seems fine as does ck folding or ck calling... If utg comes back over pre we just fold
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 11:53 AM
jacks are just a medium pair. two picture cards together make it look a lot stronger than it really is. It's a medium stregnth hand.

A guy who never 3bets and hardly raises to begin with (not to mention doing it over and UTG open raiser) is not gona show up with pocket tens.

It would also be an expensive set mine. If we hit the set one out of five, then yes set mine but it's almost double that.
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaeR2DraH
Honestly, all options look pretty bad to me based on stacks and player tendencies. Thoughts??


given descriptions folding looks terrific imo. anything else is pretty terrible
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 01:45 PM
We're getting about 12x implied odds to stack the 3better, which I kinda get the feeling we do most times a J flops (apart from perhaps like AJx flops when he has KK). Course we also aren't closing the action, but I think I'm willing to risk the $25 that opener is unlikely to 4bet a tight 3bet. It's definitely not a great spot, but I think a thin setmine is okish.

ETA: Actually, I guess it's closer to just 11x implied odds (assuming opener flats and doesn't give any more action). Putting in 10% really ain't great to setmine, although there is a good chance we go 3ways (and thus could get some collateral damage action from the opener), and the tighter the 3better the better chance we have at stacking him (i.e. much less chance of stacking a light 3better since he is often doing this with nothing rather than a big overpair). Might boil down to more what the chances of getting 4bet by opener are. It probably is closer to a fold than a call, although I'm guessing calling isn't horrendously bad.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 05-23-2014 at 01:51 PM.
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 02:21 PM
Easy fold.

I could maybe see an argument for cold-calling if V2 was CO and we were BU.

OOP though, it's going to be slightly harder to stack one of them when we do make a set, and much harder to pick up an occasional pot on wet boards when we don't.
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 02:53 PM
Hmmm ... really comes down to what UTG's 4x open means.

A raise from 1st position with a bet size tell signaling strength, from an middleaged+ player who normally "plays straightforward"?

If his range here (you are the only one who can tell) is as narrow as AK/TT+ you have an easy fold, not getting odds to set mine.

Even though button signals QQ+, you'll likely be folding to UTG's 4bet close to 30% of the time.
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 04:11 PM
The way you've described these two V's, I'd have to say it's a fold. If no one's been 3-betting, you probably don't have to worry about a 4-bet from V1, but you still have to think you're way, way behind looking for your miracle flop. Against these types of players, you're much better off trying to stack them in a draw situation where they have a big hand and you have plenty of odds to hit your hand.
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 05:53 PM
Thank you for the comments! In retrospect, I do like a fold here because I am basically crushed by both of their ranges, position sucks, and stacks are not terrific to set mine. V1 was only opening Ak, QQ+ to 4bb's (possibly JJ, but unlikely here since I had two of them), and I'm not even sure if V2 is ever 3 betting Ak here.
At the time, I decided to call because V1 is almost never going over the top, and I convinced myself I'd have decent odds to set mine 3 way (really I just got glued to my broadway pair. Grr). Instead, V1 calls behind and the flop comes 722, I check/fold to see V1 w/ KK and V2 w/ QQ. Crushed.
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 06:01 PM
Keep in mind that postflop position doesn't really matter all that much in low SPR pots if we're setmining. I mean, assuming the other guy just flats behind us (admittedly, an important assumption), the SPR is going to be ~3, so the only way they get away from an overpair is if an overcard flops / board runs out ******ed by the turn.

We also knew we were crushed, but that's fine, we were playing our JJ like 22 here knowing that at least one Villain is probably going to feel committed for stacks postflop with the hands that we are putting them on.

Gdon'tbeatyourselfupaboutthishand,it'snotthatbad,i moG
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 06:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaeR2DraH
Thank you for the comments! In retrospect, I do like a fold here because I am basically crushed by both of their ranges, position sucks, and stacks are not terrific to set mine. V1 was only opening Ak, QQ+ to 4bb's (possibly JJ, but unlikely here since I had two of them), and I'm not even sure if V2 is ever 3 betting Ak here.
At the time, I decided to call because V1 is almost never going over the top, and I convinced myself I'd have decent odds to set mine 3 way (really I just got glued to my broadway pair. Grr). Instead, V1 calls behind and the flop comes 722, I check/fold to see V1 w/ KK and V2 w/ QQ. Crushed.
Would have been interesting if the flop was A22 instead. I'm guessing it probably goes c/c/c then if something like a 9 rolls off the turn, maybe you have a chance to lead out and pull down the pot?
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 08:37 PM
Such a tough position in a live situation but I probably fold given the villain descriptions. I'm honestly considering folding QQ here. In reality, I probably call (even though I know I should be folding)
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote
05-23-2014 , 08:54 PM
calling means you are investing just under 10% stack size to set mine here, because that is effectively what you are doing, and against a stack size that is always C-betting, but you'll only hit a set 12.5% of the time (math right on that or worse?)...just like McMel said, no odds to set mine here.

However, based on your descriptions its a fold...definitely not a spot to be 4-bet spewing though either...seems basic, but I'd say a lot of LLSNL players have this leak (I have tons of leaks, just not this one...)
Time to fold JJ pre? 1/3NL Quote

      
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