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Old 07-23-2021, 08:43 AM   #26
Yeodan
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Re: Tighten up or embrace the variance?

Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadJ View Post
Once you are above 2 buyins and still have fish with even more you might not want to call possible bluffs larger then a buyin because it's better to keep your stack for chances at the really deep fish.
Quote:
Originally Posted by madrobin View Post
You should tighten up and refrain from speculative situations, even though those situations might still be +EV. If you just sit back and engage the cruise control, you'll get the money.
These two comments make a lot of sense to me.

Obviously we're taking every spot that is obviously and highly +EV.

But in spots where we're not sure, or the EV is close, if we consider our future EV, it might actually be much more profitable to fold a few times more often.

When a spot is close, if we're honest, we don't know if it's slightly +EV or slightly -EV.
Let's even say we're very confident the spot is just very slightly +EV.
We have a bluff catcher and our opponent bets big on the river polarizing themselves.
The spot end up us requiring 25% equity to call and we are pretty damn sure we have 27%.
Is calling good, yes, definitely.
Are we going to lose 73% of the time? Yes!

Let's say we're on our 2nd or 3rd buy-in and we're using a stop loss to prevent going on tilt.

If we take the spot, which is clearly +EV, we lose, we now have to quit playing for the night and have to say bye to the several huge fish at the table.

If we however dodge that spot, we sacrifice a tiny amount of EV, but we will more than likely easily win that back in another spot vs one of the fish, since we get to stay at the table.

I think this future EV we gain by not busting is something very important to think about.
At least it is for me. Since I do set a stop loss at 2 or 3 BI's to protect my roll and keep myself from tilting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by madrobin View Post
If you have an unlimited bankroll and nerves of steel, by all means, mix it up. But most of us don't have those resources.
I certainly don't have either of those and I believe I tilt far less quickly than most other players I've seen in my games.
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Old 07-23-2021, 09:46 PM   #27
Amanaplan
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Re: Tighten up or embrace the variance?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
These two comments make a lot of sense to me.

Obviously we're taking every spot that is obviously and highly +EV.

But in spots where we're not sure, or the EV is close, if we consider our future EV, it might actually be much more profitable to fold a few times more often.

When a spot is close, if we're honest, we don't know if it's slightly +EV or slightly -EV.
Let's even say we're very confident the spot is just very slightly +EV.
We have a bluff catcher and our opponent bets big on the river polarizing themselves.
The spot end up us requiring 25% equity to call and we are pretty damn sure we have 27%.
Is calling good, yes, definitely.
Are we going to lose 73% of the time? Yes!

Let's say we're on our 2nd or 3rd buy-in and we're using a stop loss to prevent going on tilt.

If we take the spot, which is clearly +EV, we lose, we now have to quit playing for the night and have to say bye to the several huge fish at the table.

If we however dodge that spot, we sacrifice a tiny amount of EV, but we will more than likely easily win that back in another spot vs one of the fish, since we get to stay at the table.

I think this future EV we gain by not busting is something very important to think about.
At least it is for me. Since I do set a stop loss at 2 or 3 BI's to protect my roll and keep myself from tilting.



I certainly don't have either of those and I believe I tilt far less quickly than most other players I've seen in my games.
Yeah yeah sure, until I sit down and stack everyone and then flip you a 5 chip as a thanks for sidelining whale games. Your good spots are coming, don't worry.

Big difference between taking small edges and trading 200bb of variance for 1bb of EV.
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Old 07-24-2021, 03:11 PM   #28
KT ART
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Re: Tighten up or embrace the variance?

this is a good question, on the one hand if you just wait for them to spew right into your lap, you are guaranteed a pay day, on the other hand, if you wait too long they will spew to the other players and you have to play against their monster stacks, and sometimes they'll just quit and take the money off the table
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