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Three Queens on a dangerous board Three Queens on a dangerous board

05-29-2014 , 04:33 PM
Been playing at this table for around 2 hours.

V1: W/M 40-50, seems to be a straight forward decent player. Has good cards at showdown, has around $600

V2: W/M late 30s early 40s, limps a lot. He is pretty much a calling station, However, he usually does not go to the river unless he has something. Has about $500.

Hero: W/M late 50s. If anyone is paying attention, they probably think tight/passive. Stack is $400.

Hero on button:QQ

Couple of folds
V1: calls
fold
V2 calls
call
call
Hero: raises to $25
SB: folds
BB: folds
V1: calls
V2: calls
two folds

Pot: $86

Flop: TJQ

V1: Bets $50
V2: calls
Hero: raises $150
V1: calls
V2 calls

Pot: $536

Turn: A
V1: Bets $175
V2: Calls
Hero????????

My original thought process was to raise the flop, and get it all in on the turn. However, when the ace came and both players still seemed interested, I have to admit I became a bit lost on this hand.

Please advise.
Three Queens on a dangerous board Quote
05-29-2014 , 04:53 PM
Turn: GII. You still likely have the best hand, as I wouldn't put any of these vills on pocket aces, so the ace likely is meaningless since anyone with AK already had you beat. There's still a possible flush draw that hasn't come in yet, so you want to punish that as much as possible. If there's a straight out, you still have one redraw to a Full.

Here, with that hand, these vills, and the action pre, I'd ship the flop and take my chances that one of these vills didn't choke pre with a Big Slick. With three vills taking the flop, the NFD is definitely out. I'd expect V-1 to show down A, T. As for V-2, he's a station, so maybe a sub-nut FD, under set? Who knows?

Last edited by Kyuubimon; 05-29-2014 at 05:12 PM.
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05-29-2014 , 04:55 PM
Assuming your read on V1 as a pretty straight forward player is correct, I think you have to fold. He led out on the flop after your big raise with that board and then after your raise, he leads out again on the turn. Gotta put him on having a K in there. As played, he's most likely putting you on a set or AA after the flop, so when the A hits the turn, he's thinking it's a good enough card that you'll have to call his bet.

That's not even counting V2, who at worst probably has a flush draw if he's calling down the big flop and turn bets.

I don't see how you have BOTH of them beat at this point.
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05-29-2014 , 05:06 PM
V1 looks like a k.

V2 looks like a flush draw.

Youre already getting good odds to chase a boat, which you will likely get paid off for by at least one of them.
You probably have zero fold equity if you shove and it seems unlikely neither have a k. V1 is probably kj or jQ. Usually when ive put this much of my stack in already im happy to GII but I dont see much point on this hand. Id probably call, jam all rivers that give us a boat.
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05-29-2014 , 05:24 PM
Is this $2/$5NL?

If so, should you raise bigger pre? That's a perfectly-sized PFR for online play but from what I've seen people raise bigger pre in live games, especially against a station.

V1 doesn't seem like a very decent player to me. Why would he donk a good hand into the PFR?

Does V1 have a limping range and a raising range that you'd observed in 2 hours?
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05-29-2014 , 05:27 PM
Even if you know one of them has AK or KQ,you're need a little over 3:1 odds to call. You basically committed yourself when you raised the flop. The correct play is to ship and hope for the boat
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05-29-2014 , 05:28 PM
Easy Call and see what happens on the rvr
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05-29-2014 , 05:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by problemeliminator
V1 looks like a k.

V2 looks like a flush draw.

Youre already getting good odds to chase a boat, which you will likely get paid off for by at least one of them.
You probably have zero fold equity if you shove and it seems unlikely neither have a k. V1 is probably kj or jQ. Usually when ive put this much of my stack in already im happy to GII but I dont see much point on this hand. Id probably call, jam all rivers that give us a boat.
Are you saying you would potentially call the turn bet and then fold if you miss the boat. That would leave only $50 behind. The only 2 options are fold or push. The awkward raise preflop and on the flop puts him in a difficult position. I would still shove knowing we have 0 fold equity and are probably behind
Three Queens on a dangerous board Quote
05-29-2014 , 05:33 PM
Several of you are saying call the turn and evaluate the river. A call leaves us $50 behind and is not an option. Perhaps I'm missing something here
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05-29-2014 , 05:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred_1_15301
Several of you are saying call the turn and evaluate the river. A call leaves us $50 behind and is not an option. Perhaps I'm missing something here
I misread it and thought he was deeper. Sorry. Obv shove turn in that case.

Id raise more on the flop too.
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05-29-2014 , 06:21 PM
On the turn Pot is at least $525 (not sure if you raised to 150 on flop or to 200 total). $175.00 bet makes the pot $700.00. You are about 3.6:1 to hit a full house or quads. Not seeing what the issue is? Even if villain flips over pocket kings this is still an insta call. Only hand that would justify a fold would be if he flipped over pocket aces.

Last edited by wilson1560; 05-29-2014 at 06:32 PM.
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05-29-2014 , 08:02 PM
I saw two guys say shove ott. Shoving is so bad. Not only does nothing worse ever call but the leading V never shows up without a K. Never.

Since the second to act V didn't shove with Kx out of fear of diamonds getting there, I guess he has diamonds.

But you're getting direct odds to try to boat/quad up. You'll only have $50 left after the call and it looks stupid at the table to get 88% of your stack in there and fold if the river doesn't pair the board but it's the right move.

I did the math on this exact situation in post #24 in this thread http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...-turn-1445694/
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05-29-2014 , 08:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
I saw two guys say shove ott. Shoving is so bad. Not only does nothing worse ever call but the leading V never shows up without a K. Never.

Since the second to act V didn't shove with Kx out of fear of diamonds getting there, I guess he has diamonds.

But you're getting direct odds to try to boat/quad up. You'll only have $50 left after the call and it looks stupid at the table to get 88% of your stack in there and fold if the river doesn't pair the board but it's the right move.

I did the math on this exact situation in post #24 in this thread http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...-turn-1445694/
What about shoving flop to avoid these awkward positions? Already a decent pot and its possible we get calls with pair+draw, 2 pair, JJ, 1010, maybe even naked flush draw. If someome flopped a straight oh well, you've got a ton of outs to boat up.
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05-29-2014 , 08:26 PM
getting 5 to 1 with ~20% equity. no way you can fold

i probably just shove for shania / so neither V can fold when you bink
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05-29-2014 , 08:29 PM
Raise a tad more pre.

On turn we easily shipit. Its hardly much of a raise anyhow. All draws are calling it off and 2 pairs and all sorts of things. 98 nice hand.

Im never getting scared on this turn with these stacks as well as that betsize on turn.
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05-29-2014 , 08:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by problemeliminator
What about shoving flop to avoid these awkward positions? Already a decent pot and its possible we get calls with pair+draw, 2 pair, JJ, 1010, maybe even naked flush draw. If someome flopped a straight oh well, you've got a ton of outs to boat up.
Bet 50, call 50, Shove 375?

Just because there's $186 in there already doesn't mean shoving is a good move. What if the turn and rivers are complete bricks and we get paid off by a nfd and KQ the whole way? Betting/raising huge "to protect" is really just slang for "foregoing future value." In the long run the turn/river cards will either brick off or we'll hit our boat/quads most of the time. So we need to play the hand as if that'll be the run out. Shoving guarantees better calls and the only worse hands that call are nfd's and worse sets. Against the 3 different straights, the two worse sets, and all nfd's, my good friend EquiLab tells me QQ is ~45%. With enough dead money in there it's a breakeven spot, I'd rather play it to be a much much + EV spot, not a 0 EV spot.

Because we're not too deep, I would plan to raise the flop and price out draws on brick turns (which with our stack would be shoving). Once the turn isn't a brick though, I change modes to "do I have the right price to boat/quad" and the answer to that is yes. Shoving on this turn though is just lightly [small amounts of] money on fire.
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05-29-2014 , 08:39 PM
Anyone else like shipping the flop?
If we dont ship the flop, I think we should raise the flop a lot more.
After we call the flop bet there's $236 in the pot, and we only raised $100, giving everyone an attractive 3.3:1 odds to chase whatever draws they have. Far better odds than I'd like to give. I'd prefer to raise to something like $225 here.

Also if this is 2/5 the opening size it too small.
If it's 1/2, then it's likely fine. Maybe a bit big for a normal table, but you know the table, and it went 3 ways, so that's a pretty good result.
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05-29-2014 , 08:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
Bet 50, call 50, Shove 375?

Just because there's $186 in there already doesn't mean shoving is a good move. What if the turn and rivers are complete bricks and we get paid off by a nfd and KQ the whole way? Betting/raising huge "to protect" is really just slang for "foregoing future value." In the long run the turn/river cards will either brick off or we'll hit our boat/quads most of the time. So we need to play the hand as if that'll be the run out. Shoving guarantees better calls and the only worse hands that call are nfd's and worse sets. Against the 3 different straights, the two worse sets, and all nfd's, my good friend EquiLab tells me QQ is ~45%. With enough dead money in there it's a breakeven spot, I'd rather play it to be a much much + EV spot, not a 0 EV spot.

Because we're not too deep, I would plan to raise the flop and price out draws on brick turns (which with our stack would be shoving). Once the turn isn't a brick though, I change modes to "do I have the right price to boat/quad" and the answer to that is yes. Shoving on this turn though is just lightly [small amounts of] money on fire.
I disagree on the range of hands that would call a shove.

I said previously that OP should definitely have raised more OTF as he's giving like 3-1, its just a matter of how much. Making it 200-225 OTF and shoving/calling allin all turns seems fine.
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05-29-2014 , 08:59 PM
^ The only hands I didn't include were 2pair combos. It's true I have bet/3-bet huge on flops with sets where a lot of turn cards kill my action and 2-pair has called my ai. Here the betting isn't reopened for us though.

I think the huge raise and showing that you're committed otf folds out a lot of hands drawing nearly dead otf like AJ no diamonds looking to hit a gutterball that includes zero IO (unless we boat up).

I don't really get into pricing people out otf. My flop sizing is dictated by how much I think I can get of pure value and/or to set up playing for stacks by the river. Once I get to the turn I have more information and I know whether I can bet for pure value again against a hand drawing nearly dead or if I need to bet to price out a draw and give it zero IO. So giving these guys 3:1 otf isn't a big deal to me. Included in that 3:1 the Vs are thinking about is how often we boat/quad and their good flop odds to draw turn into good flop odds to hand us their stacks.
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05-29-2014 , 09:03 PM
I'm pretty sure I agree and understand what you are saying eldiesel but I think at the same time we can accomplish all the same goals, and still get more value on the flop.

I think that the vast majority of hands that we get value from on the flop for a raise to $150 we can get calls from at $200/$225/$250 so we can just own the on the flop, and jam it in on the turn.

IMO it's not so much about pricing them out, it's about getting them to commit maximum money when they are not winning.
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05-29-2014 , 09:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch
I think that the vast majority of hands that we get value from on the flop for a raise to $150 we can get calls from at $200/$225/$250 so we can just own the on the flop, and jam it in on the turn.

IMO it's not so much about pricing them out, it's about getting them to commit maximum money when they are not winning.
I agree with this.

I'm okay with the $150-$200 range. I do think $225+ is starting to get to where only straights and coolered sets call though.
Three Queens on a dangerous board Quote
05-29-2014 , 09:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by problemeliminator
V1 looks like a k.

V2 looks like a flush draw.

Youre already getting good odds to chase a boat, which you will likely get paid off for by at least one of them.
You probably have zero fold equity if you shove and it seems unlikely neither have a k. V1 is probably kj or jQ. Usually when ive put this much of my stack in already im happy to GII but I dont see much point on this hand. Id probably call, jam all rivers that give us a boat.
+1

This is a call. You're getting decent pot odds to boat up and you're most likely going to get stacks in when you do so you have some implied odds.

Ship all rivers that complete your hand and fold when you miss.

Edit: Saw that we only have $50 behind OTR.
:facepalm:

This is probably a fold without the implied odds to stack villains.

Last edited by owlberteinstein; 05-29-2014 at 09:36 PM.
Three Queens on a dangerous board Quote
05-29-2014 , 09:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by owlberteinstein
+1

This is a call. You're getting decent pot odds to boat up and you're most likely going to get stacks in when you do so you have some implied odds.

Ship all rivers that complete your hand and fold when you miss.

Edit: Saw that we only have $50 behind OTR.
:facepalm:

This is probably a fold without the implied odds to stack villains.
Direct odds

[ 175 / (536 + 175 + 175 + 175) ] = 16.5%
Percent to boat/quad = 20%

It's not difficult, do the math, don't guess. Or just read where I already said this.
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