$1/2
V ($450) BB - thinking player. He's a reg, I'm a reg but we don't have a lot of history running into each other. Surely he's a winning player and I believe he adjusts his style to best exploit the game he's in. I believe he views H as a solid winning player also always adjusting style to account for table / V's.

H ($325) CO - been playing sort of LAGgy tonight for what it's worth.

OTTH

Fold to H in LP w/ QcQd, I raise to $10 (on the smallish side of my open raise range but in LP w/ no limpers it's fairly standard.

Irrelevant calls the $10 from the BTN, SB folds, V calls from the BB.

Flops ($28)
Jd5s4s

V checks, H leads for $16, irrelevant folds, V calls.

Turn ($59)
7h

V leads for $95.

So V clearly know that both the flop and turn hit his range way harder than mine. V also knows that H knows this, and V also knows that H knows V knows this. V also know that I can fold 1 pair and never worry about it. V also knows I can hero call super light. Of course I may be wrong with any or all of that, but that's my belief.

My dilemma is that V could be nutted, could be merging a TP type hand or could be exploiting his range advantage and an understanding that I know that as well.

My thought process is if he was trying to exploit his range advantage he could have done it in a stronger, valuey way, like $65 or something. Same with a TP merged hand, $60-65 should do. To me the $95 looks like 2p+ trying to size such that he can play for stacks on the river.

Am I way over thinking this or does this make sense? I'm not saying V is Johnny Chan, but he's not a $1/2 fit either.

So, H?

Tell us about example hands that actually make you think he's playing the ways you describe he can be /might be.

IRT - this guy is a fuzzy spot in my memory. I don't have any good examples or noteworthy hands for him. I was trying to pinpoint his style / tendencies in the hand, after the hand and as I was driving home tonight I the best I can conclude is I can't pin him on one style because he adjusts.

The only hand before this hand in this session that was noteworthy was a hand where i hand 1010 in MP/LP, raised something, BTN called, V called from EP (or maybe BB). Flop was AK3hhh and V had 56hh and took a big pot off of BTN w/ 3 streets. H folded on flop, even holding the 10h. BTN looked like a big A and I assumed (correctly) that V was already there, killing 2 of my heart outs. Never saw if BTN had a higher heart to go with his A.

So 2pr+ isn't the entire range but how much of the range has you smoked?

There are very few hands you would gladly call with, and your LP open & 1/2 pot flop bet doesn't show a lot of strength either. So I'd tend to include more semi-bluffs in V's range, but you say this is a tricky player and you have some info we don't.

My calling range here might be exclusively sets, and with my opening range I maybe can only call w/ JJ. If V knows this then this leans way more heavily to a bluff. However, if he knows I know that it becomes a very good value bet again. This meta-game is kicking my ass right now.

Feels like you are going WAY to deep into meta for this or any live low stakes hand.

In the actual hand it's a disaster to fold imo. I would probably shove but I can see calling being optimal against some opponents.

I think this is a lot of 76s, sets, and a bit of air. I don't want to play for 200bb stacks with QQ on this board, so i'm folding turn with less than $30 invested and waiting for a better spot.

This is a case where stack sizes dictate the decision. If this guy had $150 total, I might be inclined to play for stacks, but in this spot, I just think there are better spots to go for it than donk off 200bb with an overpair.

Let him have it and pick a better spot, stacks too deep to jam, if he had less like 100bigs or 125 bigs then jam it in probably is okay

"My dilemma is that V could be nutted."

The remainder of your post and your replies are thoughtful.

But we ought not to list as our first concern that a Villain who bets could be nutted.

Any V could be nutted whether or not he bets.

One way to change the risk profile of a Villain being nutted when the board runs out low is to raise more, pre-flop, than $8 with premiums.

Yes, we would have to raise more than $8 with other hands too, but after a few times, the higher amount won't be quite as shocking to the rest of the table.

I think I would fold here. In my experience he made his hand on the turn or he has an open ended SFD that he wants to really get paid on if it hits on the river.

Is V an older guy by any chance? They love to donk bet when they make their hand.

MAWG, but I see no OMC about him at all.

I find that at SSLNL thinking players that make large bets like this are trying to capitalize on others' inability to fold overpair type hands way more than trying to take advantage by bluffing. This is a fold for me based on the player profile provided.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

I agree and for that reason I folded. I didn’t show and V claimed to have had 45 and also didn’t show.

I can see why this left you scratching your head. I also think you are definitely over-thinking how much this V knows you know he knows etc. He cannot know these things if you haven't played many hands together. He might guess them but he can't know them just like you are guessing things about his knowledge of the game and ability to hand read. I suggest:

1) V cannot possibly know enough about your game to be comfortable attempting to level you in some way.

Bearing in mind you open from CO, have been playing LAG and used a standard sizing preflop and then bet just over 1/2 pot into two players on the flop: V cannot reasonably think you are particularly strong here. So second part of the conundrum is:

2) why would he lead out 1.5X pot on this turn after x/c flop into a wide and largely weak range?

Well if he isn't leveling you but he does think you are a good player (so he won't expect you to spaz gii here with a FD or top-pair/overpair like some donkey recreational player) then he must be doing something generic that he thinks you are likely to understand well enough for it to have the desired effect. The generic plan for overbetting like this, as far as I understand it is that it allows the overbettor to add more bluffs and semibluffs to his range while remaining balanced.

Good players will do this across multiple streets. They'll put in an overbet on the flop or turn intending to follow up with a balanced shove or further overbet on the turn or river. Basically it enables the overbettor to apply maximum pressure in as safe a way as possible - he remains balanced and therefore confident what he's doing is +EV while his opponents are moved immediately outside their comfort zones where they can make some very big mistakes.

So if that's what he's actually doing then he's doing this with a range and he's got some idea of what kind of range you'll continue with now and on different rivers.

So the question is: why didn't V launch this plan on the flop? What I mean is he has a range of strong hands TPGK+ and strong draws on this flop and he's obviously facing a wide betting range from an aggressive IP opponent. He has no real idea what you have at this point so it doesn't make much sense to just let the flop go through for only $16 if he has one of the hands he'd be happy incorporating into a flop overbetting plan. What if he's got 2pair and a 3rd flush or straight card turns, he can't overbet then without risking betting into your straight or flush or you just folding hands that easily could have called a big raise on the flop. If he had a good draw on the flop and he just X/c and then overbets the turn he loses most of the effect he wanted because now it looks like he was drawing on flop and either hit turn or launched a bad bluff on the turn plus he's not properly balanced because he either raised flop with strong hands or slow played them and now maybe can't safely overbet them on the turn.

The answer surely has to be that V's hand only became a part of a possible overbetting range on the turn. For that to be the case it has to be a medium strength hand or weak draw that plays the flop best as an OOP float.

Therefore I'm thinking the strong combos are mostly 77 with maybe a few J7s or 75s if he can flat these preflop. The draws must be 66 and 65s and maybe some 7Xss.

So, V can overbet something like [77 66 65dd A7ss 75dd] and know that he can launch value shoves and bluff shoves on various different rivers and it is very hard for hero to know what to do.

In my opinion folding is the best option but if I were going to continue I think I would shove. Reason being is it puts everything in his range under huge pressure. Despite V's overbet it is actually Hero who can most easily have 86dd or 86ss or JJ. V actually probably can't have these hands because they should have launched a big play on the flop or folded on the flop or would have 3bet preflop.

V thinks he's really happy with his overbet with 77 when what he thinks hero will do is call with worse. V is happy with his overbet with 66 when he thinks hero will probably fold but if he calls V gets a shot to draw out and and a shot to buff on the river.

I don't think V is at all happy with any of these hands when hero shoves and I think he can make a surprising number of folds.

I'd still fold though!!!!

But I don't think V had 45...

Of course if V isn't actually as smart as you think or he doesn't rate your abilities then he just has 77 or 86s here and wants to get it all in before showdown! The other simple explanation is he had 76ss.

First thing, you should raise more preflop and bet more on the flop.

That said, you may have to put in your whole stack to find out if QQ is good. So V needs to be bluffing a lot of the time for this to be a profitable call. Against most players, it's not. Most likely V has two pair and is protecting against all the straight and flush draws.

You should just fold. You have only $26 invested.

It's a fold IMO.

If he checks the turn to do check it back or continue to barrel? Has he seen you Cbet then give up on the turn?

A lot of times Villains will check call flop then lead turn with 2 pair plus hands because they are afraid the turn will get checked.

1) bet more pre. if it was button, a $10 raise would be ok, but id make it at least 12-13 from CO
2) bet more OTF. I would probably full pot it for $30. Board is reasonably draw heavy, and not really many middling strength hands to call a smaller bet. Jx is calling $30, 5x/4x are rare, draws are calling $30.
3) Its rare that I see villans taking this line, so I dont KNOW what villan is doing, but I know when *I* would take this line as the V, which is with a reasonably strong made hand (QJ+ id say), or a low flush draw/combo draw (like 76, 78, 8s9s, maybe even just a normal low FD like QsTs, simply to try to get the NFD to fold and just generally to get some FE). I would Jam here, I think he is calling 100%, and I think he has a set/2p some of the time, but I think you are probably ahead of his range, or at minimum have pot odds, and you dont want to let him see the river card.

Against the following range: 44, 55, 75s, AsTs, AsQs, AJs, KJs, QJs, AJo, 55, 44, 76s, 65s, 8s7s, youre up 61.8 - 38.15

if i remove AJo, QJs (other than QsJs) and KJs (other than KsJs) youre still at 48.48%

Even removing AJs (other than AsJs), and removing AsTs, meaning im leaving ONLY combo draws, pair + OESD, and 2p+ youre still at 43%.

Unless he is doing this with nothing but the nuts (he isnt), its an EASY ship.

+1

My initial thought was his sizing on the turn was definitely so he can shove the river and give you ~ 2:1 to call. So if you call turn, you almost have to call all rivers.

I fold in this spot as well given your stack size and its mostly because of V's turn sizing...looks way too valuey to me.

Ragequit99 post #15 and shorn7 post #21 are right where my head is.

If I only had a choice of opening to $10 or opening to $15, I 100% choose $15. People playing 1/2 will call $15 with all kinds of garbage. Let them. $10 is too small no matter what position youre in.

In my experience, this kind of "surprise overbet" is often a hand that smashed the turn and V thinks you might have a good but worse holding you'll stack off with. I think "the bet doesn't make sense, that turn only improves a couple hands" then I call or shove and get stacked.

What is more likely: V is making a Level 4 merge overbet with something light to win a medium pot but risk losing a lot. Or.... V just binked the turn and knows as a "thinking player" you might level yourself into paying it off.

Not worth it without specific history or live read that V spews here.

Tomark, IMO you need to add 77, 68s, 45s, maybe even J7s to V's range. Those are all hands I might float for a small pot like this... well, i wouldn't call the J7s pre but yeah, you ignored several plausible hands that beat Hero.