Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV?

05-12-2018 , 10:14 AM
1/2 deeeeep game (~2000 stacks for all 6 players)

All player are decent some very good

I buyin for the minimum 300, game was straddling and restraddling I figure I can get my money in pretty good most of the time because these players never fold to 3 bets (they take the correct move against their deep stacked vills and misapply it to my "short" stack).

I think the villain in this hand reads my short buy as scared money (when in fact it's quite the opposite, I'm looking for a 60/40 for the $100+EV spot) he's younginsh, getting a massage probably playing lower waiting for a bigger game

Evidence : Over the course of about 45 mins these two hands occur

I open KQ to 15 (4 straddle) he calls the SB I cbet 25 on a crappy board he floats check check turn he bets river could have been for value but the board wasn't super value heavy. I fold.

I open QJ in the cutoff to 15 he calls the button I cbet 25 on A25 two diamonds he calls turn is a 2 I bet 35 and he sigh folds like 'obviously you have the ace guess I can't steal this one'.

The Hand

I have about 350 he obviously covers

I open QJ on the button for 15
He calls from the SB
All others fold

Flop
Q 9 5
Check
I bet 25
He calls

Turn
Q
Check
I bet 35
He thinks and raises to 105

He's 100% capable of bluffing here and I'm confident most of his range is garbage. However there are probably a lot of flush draws and Jack Tens in there too.

I think a flat basically turns my hand face up with ~$200 of action to come. If the river is a spade or and 8 or K he can put me in a really gross spot on the river but a shove lets him get away from all his bluffs and lets him snap with KQ AQ or full houses.

I think flatting is the best EV move given my reads but how much EV is it worth sacrificing to not be playing against a very good player with my hand face up on a bunch of dirty rivers?
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 10:33 AM
If your hand is face up, do you really think hes gonna shove the river when he doesnt hit something that beats a Q? The answer to that question will determine if you should call or raise the turn.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 10:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
If your hand is face up, do you really think hes gonna shove the river when he doesnt hit something that beats a Q? The answer to that question will determine if you should call or raise the turn.
That's the thing, maybe I'm giving him too much credit but I think he'll open shove a balanced range of bluffs and value that will make me sad on a lot of rivers.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 10:36 AM
you have decided that using this hand to bluff catch is the highest EV against this V. stick with the plan if you think it is correct. thus, you have to call/raise all rivers.

so are you giving up EV? probably not. if you 3 bet the turn, given your image, he is only calling you with hands that beat you. So you best move is to just try to induce.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 10:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomdemaine
That's the thing, maybe I'm giving him too much credit but I think he'll open shove a balanced range of bluffs and value that will make me sad on a lot of rivers.
If you think that's true then call the turn, dont even look at the board and call his river shove.
If you think he will give up quite often if he doesnt improve, then shove the turn.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 11:30 AM
Why are we only betting 35 on the turn?
I’m not sure on the exact pot, but I’m guessing it’s 85?
I like a bet of ~70 here setting up a river jam.
As played I think u have to shove the turn. Too much potential to get outplayed if u just flat here imo


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 11:43 AM
Why are you opening to $15 on the BTN?
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 11:47 AM
Also i cant see how our hand is "faceup" at all as trip Q good kicker if we call his raise on the turn? Maybe i am a little bit slow, but i mean we can have alot of hands with the line raise pre, bet flop, bet turn and call a modest 3x raise with money behind in position. Actually i think our range is not visible at all here, and totally uncapped. It almost feels like youre just imagining yourself that your opponent can know what you have here.

As played i also think its too much potenial to be outplayed on the river,so i would rather ship the turn. If youre really confident in your read that the guy have river bluffs in his arsenal (and not just in theory as somebody that "is capable", but is actually firing these bluffs at the table), i am with Mike that you call the turn and station like 90 percent of rivers.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 11:49 AM
Agreed with betting too small on the turn. however, it does make you look weak, trying to see a cheap river, and this will induce him to bluff a large frequency of hands. This is a awkward spot. if you jam, your hand is face up and he would fold all his bluffs, pretty much all the draws as there is a board pair and you would get called by hands that beat you (apart from maybe Q10) If you call, it gives V chance to improve their semi bluffs to a hand that beats and there are quite a few perceived dangerous river cards for you. To avoid this spot I would have bet bigger on turn (be balanced in this spot by mixing in a FD and OESD).

As played I think a shove is the better option.
1. if V is bluffing or semi-bluffing, hard to imagine him to bluff again on the river once you call turn, it screams Q all day.
2. If you are beat, your stack is going in regardless on the river if the board bricks once you call turn since spr is a bit less than 1
3. By jamming, you deny equity from draws and V is not getting correct odds to call, if he does, thats more +ev for you

But this again depends on your perceived range of V, if you think he has a ton of complete airballs, then calling to bluff catch might be a better option. Otherwise, I would just get it in
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 11:58 AM
Ugh do not shove the turn! Call and snapcall all rivers. There are no tough spots if his range is mostly garbage. If he has 6d7d and misses, I find it really hard to believe this player type will always check and let you win with JJ, A9, or busted flushdraw. Your hand would be faceup if you jam, not if you call.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 12:07 PM
V is basically unknown. Any strong reads that OP is feeling in this hand seem to be borne from pretty much nothing, especially with no showdowns on him. Sometimes it feels like you get reverse floated every time you cbet/x turn, but it's rarely a bluff in reality.

I would rather play the strength of my hand and call turn and sigh call rivers that don't complete the JTss combo draw. We're forgetting that V raised turn instead of flop and there's a lot of value that beats us leaving us hoping he has a whack Q or a draw he might never raise with.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 12:14 PM
If most of his range is garbage then call turn and call river. Shoving the turn is bad if that is your read. I agree with Cheese that shoving turn is the face-up way to play it.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 12:27 PM
You "short stacked" this game because you wanted to be able to get in these situation. Call the turn raise and call the river bet. You played this much like he would expect a FD with overs to play this with the small turn bet.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 12:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Why are you opening to $15 on the BTN?
Sorry, there was a straddle.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 12:37 PM
I don't agree that calling the turn makes your hand face up. If anything it keeps your range wider.

I actually don't mind the smaller turn bet. Why pot this and get worse hands to fold. He is trying to rep a Q here.

You not having a Spade helps a little. You are blocking J 10 but he has plenty of bluffs still.

I call this turn and am prepared to call almost any river.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 12:39 PM
He seems kind of bad since he's flatting alot from the sb.
But my impression is that he wants to get in hands with you because you seem weak.

He's probably thinking your range on this board is not very strong so I would say he has tons of absolute air in this spot. definitely call turn and try to get the rest in on the river.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 12:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hyperknit
Why are we only betting 35 on the turn?
I’m not sure on the exact pot, but I’m guessing it’s 85?
I like a bet of ~70 here setting up a river jam.
As played I think u have to shove the turn. Too much potential to get outplayed if u just flat here imo


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I bet 35 in my earlier double barrel hand because he either had nothing and was folding to any bet or had an ace and wasn't folding to any bet. I think he thought I had it.

I wanted to take the same action again to put some doubt in his mind. Maybe make him think he can't have it every time and I'm sure he had it last time so maybe he doesn't have it this time. It was so soon after (maybe 10 hands max) that I thought it would be relevant. Was that overthinking?
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomdemaine
I bet 35 in my earlier double barrel hand because he either had nothing and was folding to any bet or had an ace and wasn't folding to any bet. I think he thought I had it.



I wanted to take the same action again to put some doubt in his mind. Maybe make him think he can't have it every time and I'm sure he had it last time so maybe he doesn't have it this time. It was so soon after (maybe 10 hands max) that I thought it would be relevant. Was that overthinking?


First I wanna say that this is a pretty elementary tactic that I would only use on weak players. Against a strong player u might end up leveling yourself into calling a check raise with a weak hand because u figure he reads your line as weak.

That being said, if u think this tactic will work against this player, then go for it.

The way I like to play, I pick my sizing based off of the board texture, and the perceived ranges of the players involved.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 02:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomdemaine
1/2 deeeeep game (~2000 stacks for all 6 players)
Where does one find such a game? Did you all just chew up the fish and end up in a circle jerk or was this some kind of uncapped 1-2 game? Where does one find such a game? Any place I've played on the east coast frustratingly is 150 BB max (sometimes less!).
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 02:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trey5Suited
Where does one find such a game? Did you all just chew up the fish and end up in a circle jerk or was this some kind of uncapped 1-2 game? Where does one find such a game? Any place I've played on the east coast frustratingly is 150 BB max (sometimes less!).
You're gonna have to move to the uk unfortunately.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 03:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomdemaine
I bet 35 in my earlier double barrel hand because he either had nothing and was folding to any bet or had an ace and wasn't folding to any bet. I think he thought I had it.

I wanted to take the same action again to put some doubt in his mind. Maybe make him think he can't have it every time and I'm sure he had it last time so maybe he doesn't have it this time. It was so soon after (maybe 10 hands max) that I thought it would be relevant. Was that overthinking?
Picked up on that, but it's not applicable to this board. We need to deny equity. Also, flatting most definitely does not turn our hand face up here. Sometimes we jam our draws, sometimes we don't. We can definitely flat our boats here and look for V to hit a draw/ induce bluffs. I think our range is actually quite undefined when we flat here.
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote
05-12-2018 , 04:33 PM
always flatting this. not scared of dirty rivers, presumably you're at the table because you'll be better than him at figuring them out. especially IP.

p.s. where is this presumably uncapped 1/2? dm if you don't wanna out your room. just curious
Think I'm being "outplayed" is a tough river decision worth the extra EV? Quote

      
m