1/2 deeeeep game (~2000 stacks for all 6 players)
All player are decent some very good
I buyin for the minimum 300, game was straddling and restraddling I figure I can get my money in pretty good most of the time because these players never fold to 3 bets (they take the correct move against their deep stacked vills and misapply it to my "short" stack).
I think the villain in this hand reads my short buy as scared money (when in fact it's quite the opposite, I'm looking for a 60/40 for the $100+EV spot) he's younginsh, getting a massage probably playing lower waiting for a bigger game
Evidence : Over the course of about 45 mins these two hands occur
I open KQ to 15 (4 straddle) he calls the SB I cbet 25 on a crappy board he floats check check turn he bets river could have been for value but the board wasn't super value heavy. I fold.
I open QJ in the cutoff to 15 he calls the button I cbet 25 on A25 two diamonds he calls turn is a 2 I bet 35 and he sigh folds like 'obviously you have the ace guess I can't steal this one'.
The Hand
I have about 350 he obviously covers
I open Q
J
on the button for 15
He calls from the SB
All others fold
Flop
Q
9
5
Check
I bet 25
He calls
Turn
Q
Check
I bet 35
He thinks and raises to 105
He's 100% capable of bluffing here and I'm confident most of his range is garbage. However there are probably a lot of flush draws and Jack Tens in there too.
I think a flat basically turns my hand face up with ~$200 of action to come. If the river is a spade or and 8 or K he can put me in a really gross spot on the river but a shove lets him get away from all his bluffs and lets him snap with KQ AQ or full houses.
I think flatting is the best EV move given my reads but how much EV is it worth sacrificing to not be playing against a very good player with my hand face up on a bunch of dirty rivers?