Disclaimers:
1. There is no judgement involved below; no right or wrong, just neutral statement and discussion of strategy.
2. Below statement is only true to Vegas 1/2, 1/3 and 2/5 game, not applicable to high stakes
Sin city, Las Vegas, a city that full of gamblers in people’s mind, is actually the nittiest place that I have ever played for low stakes poker. Below statement is probably true for all the 1/2 1/3 or some 2/5 games, almost always true if you are playing against a Vegas local NIT.
1) If you have KK and being 3 bet pre-flop, you should feel worried
2) There is no 4-bet range pre-flop, only one 4-bet hand
3) Nobody bet three streets for value with one pair (the likelihood of three barrel bluffs is as thin as three streets value bet with one pair)
4) Nobody bet three streets for value with only trips (not sets, trips), it has to be that he improves to full-house along the way
Below two statement is what I observed from Vegas low stakes cash game, nothing to do with NIT or not, just observation
1) In general people like to lead bet when they flop big hands, check raise is very rare, either for value or for bluff (unlike northern California, people is just in love with check raise. If you flop a set OOP and bet instead of check raise, people will shout at you “why do you bet?!”)
2) Pre-flop leading size is small; majority of time is 3-4BB open raise (70% 3BB-30% 4BB). During my 20+hours grind, I never see one single open raise with more than 5BB let alone the 9-10BB open which is by no means rare in northern California 1/3 2/5 games…
If you visit 2+2 and see people’s comments on hands someone played at Vegas low stakes (1/2, 2/5), the most frequent answer you get is “fold pre”. I “know” this but didn’t really “understand” this. If I really “understand” this and understand above statements before I went to Vegas to play poker. I would save the couple of hundred dollars in below:
Hand 1(Bellagio 1/3): UTG open 15, HJ called, I’m on the btn with KK so I 3 bet to 50, UTG 4 bet to 140 (with 150 behind), HJ shove for all his chips 157 decision back to me, so pot now is 140+15+50+157=362. I need to call 107 to win 362, I’m getting 1:3.2 odds and I know UTG cannot re-raise shove. To my previous poker knowledge, if I’m getting 1:3.2 pre-flop with KK, I’m never folding. But 1) UTG guy is a typical Vegas nit player that you can 100% tell within one round of play 2) he is UTG and open raise 5BB 3) he 4 bets
So now back to the hand, I should know UTG has already turned his cards face up, there is no range, just pocket A. With his remaining stack size of 150, this should be a marginal call. Also consider CO has shoved already (he calls 5BB open raise from UTG and then shoved after UTG 3 bet), this should be a clear fold because very likely there is only one K or maybe no more K left in the deck.
But anyway you know the answer, as a loose fish, I call, flop three small cards, UTG shove I call. UTG has AA, CO has AK suited and UTG won the pot.
Hand 2 (Bellagio 1/3): I’m in MP with QQ I open raise to 15, Vegas NIT on my left 3 bet to 45 two EP cold calls to my surprise. Back to me, call 30 to win 150. Even as a loose fish and even I have experienced hand 1 already, I know I’m getting 1:5 odds and if I flop a Q I can win the remaining 240 from the guy on my left. So I call. Flop is three low cards (8 high), both EP checks to me.
Now I can do 2 things:
1) check fold, checks here is equal to folding because I know 100% guy on my left will bet (because as a Vegas NIT he 3 bet pre-flop), regardless of the actions from two EPs this should be a clear fold. Because if any of the EP shoves, I’m losing to a flopped set; if both EP folds I’m losing to guy on my left. Even if he bet one third of the pot (60 into 180) which means I’m calling 60 to win 240 (1:4 odds) it’s a clear fold because it’s no longer profitable to continue set mining.
2) Bet ( to me equal to shove), I only have 250 behind, any decent size bet meaning I’m commit here. As a loose fish, I almost have a fantasy. The fantasy is that maybe just maybe one day a Vegas NIT will 3 bet preflop with AK. So with that fantasy in mind, I shoved. You know the answer. Vegas NIT snap call, both EP folded. AA got full value from QQ.
Next time, if I come back to Vegas to play 1/3, I will play KK QQ the same way I play 77 88 if I’m being 3 bet by a Vegas NIT pre-flop. Or, I should just fold-pre because I’m never set mining profitably against a Vegas NIT. Because I know nobody bet three streets for value with only one pair, so does Vegas NIT in below hand:
Hand 3: Bellagio (2/5): NIT open 25, CO call, I’m on btn with KK so I 3 bet to 80, EP call, CO fold.
Flop (185), T 4 7 two clubs, EP leads 75 with 120 behind, I shove he open folded JJ. Getting 1:3.2 odds and correctly folded the over pair. JJ never gives KK full value because he is a good Vegas NIT.
Before I conclude this session, I will post one hand that blows away my mind. I woke up in the middle of the night and cry like a kid, I’m telling myself, “you are such a loose fish…”
Hand 4 Encore (1/3): I’m EP limped with 22, LP raise to 16, two callers I call.
Flop (64) A 5 2 three hearts, ck to LP bet 25, Btn raised to 65 folded back to me, as a loose fish, I shove 400, a tilted crazy whatever **** my life play. LP folded, btn open folded 9J of hearts. A good Vegas NIT, a player that can crush Vegas 1/2 1/3 game for a living, has to be this good. Flopped the 3rd nut, flopped the flush and be able to fold to a 3 bet all in on the flop.
