5-handed 1-2 game, but this hand has a straddle and a restraddle, so effectively 1-2-4-8.
I'm on the button, which is also UTG in this scenario. Everyone's deepstacked, I have around $1k in my stack. The effective stack between me and villain in this hand is ~$700. Villain is a solid player.

Preflop ($15): Hero has J J
Hero raises to $25, SB raises to $75, 3 folds, Hero calls

Flop ($165): J T 4
SB bets $75, Hero calls

Turn ($315): Q
SB bets $175, Hero calls

River ($665): 2
SB checks, Hero ??

Do I have a value bet here?

Yes, value bet the river. But why, after a pre flop 3b aren't you bumping up the flop?

B/f river for sure. Considering the 3b, I agree that flop should be a raise. You'll probably get called by any overpair and it exponentially increases the value you can get on later streets.

I don't like the flop raise as others have said, your in position on a dry board and you don't want to give villian the opportunity to fold a big hand. You just don't want or need a raising range on this flop. You also can't bet/fold river because you only have $400 effective behind and the pot is $650. It's either jam river or check river.

Turn seems like a much better spot to shove. Opponent could have a pair and a gutshot, flush draw, open ended straight draw or more and you want to make them pay to see the river. Jam turn.

AP I'm jamming river for value. The flush wasn't there on the flop so it's unlikely he has a flush draw and the 2 isn't a bad card for you. Just jam and if he has AK or something just sigh/rebuy

You can't b/f river there's $650 in the pot and $400 effective behind

Gotta stick it in his eye on the river

Why would he raise? His hand is protected, you don't need to worry about building a pot since pot is already like 150bb deep when you call and there's only two more bets until stacks are in. Villian knows you know he looks very strong so when you raise villian can easily hero fold lots of hands he would continue with if you just call. You underrepresent your hand for longer, allow villian to do the betting and when a wet turn card comes you could potentially rep a draw that you can't rep on this board

Shove river

Lots of reasons. Maybe the simplest is because he’s ahead and V is likely calling. Maybe he’s not a confident player and simplifying hands allows him to minimize his own mistakes and maximizes V’s ability to make a mistake. Maybe to create a balanced range in case he ever wants to fire w/ AK/AQ, to get max value out of an over pair.

That being said I don’t mind a flat but once you choose this passive line I think you have to fire the river.

Based on the action, there's a very good chance villain has AA/KK. He could have a lot less since its 5 handed, but its very unlikely that hero is behind. Jam the river although I doubt hes calling.

This is definitely a good answer: lots of Villians will just call because they are only really considering absolute hand strength. Some Villians might be smarter tho, and im actually most worried about hero not doing this with bluffs almost ever and villian potentially making a really good laydown. When I'm playing 1/3 and an opponent raises me on a super dry board I often immediately think set. This is true for lots of players, and it's possibly even correct that hero rarely ever bluff raises here. Hero could also bluff here, to balance, but what's the point? It's better to just call with everything were not folding. This maximizes our positional advantae. You also get him to fold his bluffs, and if you raise later he's likely calling with AA or KK anyways

Generally speaking in position it doesn't make sense to raise top set on a very dry board, cuz we can just wait until the board gets a bit wetter and then raise. In this hand that would be on the turn. Were not raising TPTK so what could we really have here? JJ, and unless hero is making an effort to balance not much else.

I think we're pretty much in agreement, we both want to raise and we both want to bet river AP, but my point would just be that on the flop it makes more sense to peel a card because we're in position and our hand is not in danger.

On the turn our hand is genuinely volnerable so raising makes more sense. We can also rep a draw.

I like the flop flat. We have a nut advantage and alarm bells will start to go off if we raise here.

I'd like to raise the turn though. He can have a number of strong hands here which aren't folding *and* we can have bluffs to balance it with. Plus our hand is vulnerable to any draws he has—probably at minimum a pair + gutshot.

AP, definitely shoving river. It's very unlikely he checked AK/QQ here and that's really all we lose too. I'm ranging him on almost exclusively AA/KK (and a bit of TT).

Shove river tbh, very weighted to AA and KK with less AK with the flop raise. Probably only lose to QQ.

Also, I don't really consider this terribly thin. Value-betting AA here would be thin—middle set is still very strong.

Yes

Yeah he has AA/KK here most of the time when he checks river. AK is betting, QQ is betting. One pair hands in the palms of a decent hand-reader are hating life right now. I'd bet $150 to get a crying call from AA/KK. I don't expect him to jam, but if he does I'm calling.

Turn could be a raise, except sometimes we run into AK, so I don't mind calling either. But once V checks river we have a clear bet for value.

I this so, fully agree standard line would/should be call, then raise turn.

One thing I’m exploring in my own mind is how turn scare cards (scare for V based on V’s perception of H’s range) affect H’s ability to extract value. Letting a turn hit can cost a lot of money not because V catches up but because V gives up.

+1. Not a chance in hell this deep V folds literally any hand in a 3! pot to a small raise. Bump up the flop to start building as we want to play for stacks.

AP, seems like V would size higher OTT with all AK and QQ hands, so I think it is way more likely he holds AA/KK here with that sizing. And no way he checks AK OTR (the only flush he realistically could have), so I think we are good a ton of the time here. V has $375 left so I definitely shove the river.

Jam river, I'd be shocked if you were behind. I think he has likely KK AA maybe AQ.

Feels a lot like KK/AQ, and I don't think a shove would get called by either of those hands based on V description. The cool thing is that this would be an awesome bluff spot if you had J9 or T9 IMO (obviously if he is not a station). AP I would bet 200-225.