Hero OTB $400: has been inactive since sitting at the table 3 orbits ago. I literally went card dead and really hadn't yet had a chance to open my game up from the button.

Hispanic Woman $700 BB- She's been playing stationy, check calls with middle/bottom pair and leads when she believes shes got the nuts. Just stacked a guy who open shoved his AK into a K104 board and she had trips. She JUST let out this quote "I don't ever raise AK anymore, I don't understand why."

mp limps

Folds to hero who opens with Qs9s to $15 ($12 is my usual open plus 1 bb for the limper) OTB.

Folds to BB who calls. Everyone else folds.

Pot: $34

Flop Js 7s 5c

BB checks. I lead $22 into the $34

I'm wondering what she's got...theres no chance it's the jack, as she would have immediately stabbed at the pot on the flop. I'm thinking the 7, 5, random PP's and the occasional float.

BB calls.

Turn 9h.
POT: $78

BB Checks - I place a $35 bet in.

BB calls. 8T got there...but she would have let me know by now rather than playing trappy with the FD out there.

POT: $148

River Jh

BB Checks.

Is it alright to try to get some thin value here out of hands I've got dominated? If so, how much?

If and ONLY IF your reads are spot on, EZ thin value here. A $60 river bet against this player will probably net you an extra 40 (at least) in the long run.

Trying to get river value he is great imo

Yea, I like a small bet of $60.

If she calls $60 won't she call $80? $100?

Its certainly fine to put the bet out there. I probably go $50-75.

But TBH, its probably not getting called enough to really worry too much about it.

In general, you're probably better off betting a bit more OTT to get her to fold out whatever equity she'll have going into the river. The reason why is because you're probably not folding to any reasonable bet she makes on the river, even though its almost always going to be a hand that beats you.

65

I agree bet more on the turn to charge draws (better or worse, I imagine she's calling all flush draws). You're also getting value from worse. As played I bet this river. Probably some amount that's been mentioned in the thread already, $60 sounds good to me.

It's always good to ask ourself this kind of question ('what is the max value we can extract?'), HOWEVER, there is a limit to this way of thinking.

If you can do 25 push ups, can't you do 26 push ups? If you can do 26, can't you do 27? Eventually there is a limit to this pattern.

Actually 25 =/= 26, just as our villain calling $60 doesn't mean she will call $80.

Hell, $60 could be her absolute max... she could be folding to $65.

Based on your reads I bet $55

Our open raise size should be based more on stack sizes and looseness/tightness of players at table / already in hand, instead of some arbitrary $12 + limpers amount. In this case, we got a fine result (HU, in position, with initiative), but just something to keep in mind.

I might bet even less on the flop. She's either calling or she's not, so bet the smallest reasonable amount that gets the job done. This also makes our cbet more profitable, plus makes drawing to our draw more profitable if we're called, plus also typically gets us a better price if we face a check/raise (which could be lol sized, but it really helps if our initial bet is on the small side). I wouldn't go more than $20 (but your $22 is right around there, so whatever).

I check behind on the turn. One draw did get there and she could already be trapping, and I would hate hate hate facing a check/raise which possibly blows us off our draw. Plus we already have a showdownable hand, and possibly even one that we could bet for value if checked to again on the river, and yet it is still a weak one were we don't want to build a huge pot.

As played, I don't mind a thin value bet on the river, especially since stacks are not in play. I'd probably go about 1/3 PSB.

ETA: So everyone else is cool with the turn bet? I'm more for betting (and folding) the turn with no draw, but having a draw and possibly facing a check/raise would just suck so much here.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I'm not worried about having to fold our FD on the turn. There's always the risk that the FD does not get paid, so IMO, not such a big deal if we have to let it go.

I'd rather continue to put pressure on against the more common P+Gutter that Villain likely has.

In my experience, this logic works best on the flop, still works a little on the turn, and is the opposite on the river.

They'll call "huge" bets on the flop, because they're drawing.

They still call bets that are too big on the turn because they don't believe you.

They'll fold to very small bets on the river because they don't have much.

You don't think a flush draw gets paid against a station who is wanting to check/raise the turn?

GIthinkitdoes100%ofthetime,whichiswhyitsucksifwedo n'thavethepricetochaseitG

If the turn was an 6, 8 or a T, I'd agree with you because we'd have a GSSD to add to our FD.

And anyway, I don't see anything in the Villain description that leads me to thing she's x/r the turn with anything but the nutz. And most of the time they lead that.

ETA: When the FD comes in, I really don't see that many Villain's calling with 1 pair on the river. So I bluff lots of flushing rivers (especially BDFD rivers), and feel like it works quite often.

GG, methinks this is another example of why your games are so good. You can get there with the FD and get paid. IMO, flushing rivers are better bluff cards, most of the time. (Of course, we don't bluff in spots where it looks like the FD is the majority of Villain's range, or if we are against a Villain who's incapable of folding.)

I get more value out of flushes on the turn.

I agree.

I notice that many threads in llsnl will post a scenario where we have the nuts and a PSB on the river, and everyone just blindly says we should shove, without considering villain's willingness to call a shove.