Live 1/3, effective stacks $1000

Villain: one of the better regs in the room. Normally plays 2/5 but 1/3 is the only game going at the moment. Very much a thinking player, capable of playing very unpredictably. Villain and hero have almost no history together but villain knows hero as a 1/3 regular, probably on the aggressive side but solid.

Hand is straddled to $6, one limper and V raises to $40 from MP, Hero calls to his direct left with AA. All others fold.

Flop is Jc7c5d, V checks, Hero bets $75, V calls.

Turn is 8s, V checks, Hero bets $150, V calls.

River is 9s, V checks. Hero ???

Is it too thin to go for value here? What does V's range look like? If Hero does go for value, is it a shove to look like a busted flush draw or a smaller bet hoping for a call from Jx?

What is his flop checking range

Also I would 3-bet pre

If Villain is a good-solid 2/5 reg who can play unpredictably, I think his range could be pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty wide.

Just based on description, I don't think V would play a club-draw this way, just check calling.
My range on him would include QQ-KK but also J10 suited, 78dd, 88, 99, JJ, 68 suited, Q10dd etc. Pairs, gutshots, backdoors with pairs and gutshots...


So, I check behind, not wanting to bet like $250 OTR and having to call an additional $485 shove. Though I'm not sure he checks the river with any of those hands besides QQ/KK

What'd he have... What'd you do?
Spoiler it.

Hard to see a lot of value there. I would instacheck it back, especailly since 99 and TT both get there.

This one is tough if we can squarely put our Vil on KK QQ then there might still be value here. This one is really thin and really player dependant w 2 one liners to straight on board. I don't like an overbet jam here most of the time because I really feel like we get called by better so much more frequently than worse. One option to consider would be betting small to induce a bluff here, I know if I were in Vils shoes w J/x here I would sooner c/r that type of hand than c/c. Obviously I would think about that before betting; because that is often not the type of action you want w one pair here, sometimes against the right player it is though.

All in all a check on the river is probably fine, as the above conditions are pretty much the only ways I see us getting our thin value, and when you read through them they're certainly thin indeed.

Is the described V really playing KK or QQ this way though?
I think it's more likely he has any of the hands I listed, all of which beat us.

To answer the one question from your post, his hand looks a lot like KK-QQ or some variety of pair/straight and or flush draw. It's weird actually looking again at his range. Almost nothing that missed should call here I don't think, he could have a set or two pair and c/c or either the straight or a busted draw/weak one pair and c/f or c/r if he's frisky. Obv I think that's it's still well within his capacity to c/r the made straight if he has it. I'd be very ready w a plan against his c/r if you bet.

Your range in him looks pretty good, KK and QQ would be weird, but I could see him c/c them on that turn, even if the flop c/c was odd.

What I'm saying about value here is that often we only get it if he only had KK QQ and polices, or c/r bluffs a miss or 1 pair, realizing that we should need a straight to call him. These weird half pot and overbets will do us no good against his range which is contains lots of stuff, but in particular a large clump of hands that missed, or are now a straight.

I don't like the calling the check raise all the time, and would actually advise against it generally. But half pot and overbets don't work because of the nature of what he does in reaction to those bets which is never call w worse

Gotta 3-ball of, if your reads on both him and yourself are correct he should realize that his raise looks steal-y. As is I'm checking back.

^of=pf

I thought about a 3 bet pre, but I hadn't been three betting him previously so a three bet is likely to turn my hand face up and allow him to play perfectly against my hand. Give how deep we were I didn't want him to get proper set mining odds and it would have been tough to stop him from doing so with even a large 3!

Regardless, flatting $40 pre from MP looks super strong I think. I believe he ranged me pretty narrowly, AQ+, 1010+. Checking from him is unlikely to be a sign of weakness, but rather either a medium strength made hand or a huge hand slowplay.

I'm inclined to say a river shove IS actually a bluff.

[QUOTE=Elvis_Costello;47257915]If Villain is a good-solid 2/5 reg who can play unpredictably, I think his range could be pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty wide.

I think the opposite is true, he should be raising 6x+ in Mp into a straddled pot with a fairly narrow/value range! I think flatting pre is a mistake here.

I'm either/or preflop. Flatting sets up a highish SPR pot of 12 which we should be able to play fine in position (even simply calling down bets); it also allows someone behind us to get out-of-line and squeeze where we can then get in a ton of money preflop. However, we could also raise to $165 (offering poor implied odds of 8:1) where we could then comfortably stack off postflop (although it is questionable whether this raise will actually get any action). If there's a decent chance of him calling the $165, I'd probably lean towards that.

SPR is 12 on the flop. With an SPR this big, we definitely don't want to play for stacks, imo. So long as a raise doesn't go in, and we keep our bets on the small side, we should safely not have to play for stacks. With this villain being unpredictable, I would consider checking back the flop (cuz facing a check/raise gets us on our way to playing for stacks). If I'm betting, I'm betting on the small side. We ended up betting a huge PSB here, which means that stacks can come into play by the river. Do we want stacks in play?

The turn we're in the same spot. Again, do we want to play for stacks? I assumed that we did not want to play for stacks since we flatted preflop (although we can still win a decent pot). Do we know what our plan is if this unpredictable player check/raises us, or donks huge into us on the river?

As played by the river, I would just check back. Against straightforward ABC players who will never risk a big bluff here, there might be some thinnish value. But against an unpredictable player we absolutely cannot risk losing this big pot versus a bluff.

ETA: I think the river shove is massive spew. Do you know how many times I've seen someone call a $735 bet on the river in a 1/3 NL game? Exactly never, because our room actually has a $700 maximum bet rule. And in 6 years, I've seen that maximum bet rule come into play only once. To me, it kinda looks like we didn't plan the hand; we flatted preflop deep partially to not play for huge 333bbs stacks, and yet by the river, thanks to nothing but our own doing, that's exactly what we ended up doing.

Gnotreallysurewhatourplanwashere?G

To be clear, the flat pre was not for pot control, but rather for value. A raise to $165 pre will absolutely never get action from a player who understands the game at 1/3. You will fold out KK fairly often. That makes it not a bad line for a bluff, but a terrible strategy for getting max value.

The plan was to call three streets on most boards. His checking was unusual and signified to me that he had either a huge hand or a hand that had significant showdown value. Betting on the flop or turn was to fold if check raised, as I'm never ahead of his check raising range here. River was a strange spot because it is such a clear check behind spot for the strongest parts of my range that a check from V doesn't make much sense. If I check behind, what is it that I think had me beat? A set or J10?

I'm cool with the preflop plan, but I don't like any plan that involves playing for stacks with an SPR of 12. An SPR of 12 is equivalent to ~3 PSBs postflop for stacks; are we thinking this guy (who is capable of folding KK preflop) is typically going to pay off 333bb stacks postflop with worse? This is also why I'd bet much less on the first two streets.

And I know reads are hard to get across, but this guy is labelled as a very unpredictable solid thinking aggro player; therefore I'm not convinced as you are that facing a check/raise is always against a better hand, especially since our hand is so disguised (hence why I'd consider checking back the flop). But if you're comfortable folding to a check/raise at any point versus this guy, then betting flop/turn is fine.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I am trying to wrap my brain around why we would ever shove river in this spot? Are we really expecting better to fold? What about worse to call? I actually really like how you played the entire hand until the river. That shove on the river is only getting called by better and rarely if ever getting wors to fold. Even if you range villan for KK-99 you only have two hands beat and those two hands never ever call a shove.

reasons to raise pre.

Number one is definitely: if we are gonna let the pot get out of control/"stack off anyway" and feel bad about it on boards we think are scary then I see very little point in flatting.

2. We can pop it up to $120 and still he probably only breaks about even when he set mines, it's 80 more to win 1000 plus a little change is only 12.5 - 1. And he is oop.To make up for the times he still looses when he hits and the times we fold to his bet/bet/bet line (this I imagine is the way he gets value 90% of the time) 12.5-1 is probably gonna be -ev for his ass!

3. Our range is going to look strong what ever we do here!! In fact flatting puts the possibility of every pp in our range and now it's gonna be just as hard to get value when we are ahead! As every flop when he misses looks scary to him.

4. The notion that this guy is gonna muck KK here is crazy IMO (if that's the case we need to increase are 3 betting frequency against him)

5. His range looks super strong! I would like to know a little about the tendencies of the straddler or any other strange guys left to act. The act of straddling in its self is dumb, and people do even stupider stuff after they have done it, so it would be nice to know tendencies of this guy, its probably one of the prime reasons for the villains sizing.

6. I don't know how comfortable you are playing bloated multiway pots, if we can play really good post flop and we have an edge on most of the table then I like the flat much more! But if you cannot release the hand when you need to or get lots of value when you are ahead then 3 betting here is much better!

7. I know some people might not like this one, (avoiding tough decisions) if we raise pre it forces the villain to play more straight forward and I think this is very valuable to you against a guy you don't like to mess with much.

It's true raising will often cause an awkward SPR (barring the times others don't get involved or the villain 4bets), but I don't think that's reason enough to not raise, especially considering the way the hand went down post flop in the op.

3 bet preflop.

This is basically a 3/6 hand. You're 133bb eff and he made it 6.5bb. You're never going to get in 133bb in unless he spikes really well and you spike really well (or you get your money in poorly).

If you make it 110 (~18bb eff) and he calls (and others fold), the pot is 38bb eff with 115bb eff stacks behind. Flop comes J85 and he has KJ type hands, you bet 30bb (~180), and he calls, the pot is 98bb eff and you have 85bb eff stacks on the turn.

3 bet pre.

Let's say that the river comes a 2d and V checks. What is the best play then? Is it still checking back, a shove, a half PSB?

I want to understand if the 9 is such a good card for his range that I can't bet on the river or if the overall action of the hand going to the river makes it difficult to get value from worse.

Check back river.

Raising is pure spew. It's also a pure bluff, as hands that you beat are never calling a jam on the river (you'd be looking to fold out 89, JJ, 99 type hands).

Your title of "Thin value with AA" is completely off here. We're pretty crushed by his range. His calling range also dominates us.

165 preflop would have done it.

Missing a 3bet here is pretty bad.

EDIT: I semi-grunched this and didn't see GG beat me to the same conclusion with the same raise sizing.

I wish PNLHE/HOC had more on 3bet sizing (I think it's an interesting issue that simply isn't discussed enough). I think 3betting in my game typically turns my hand face upish plus also creates a small SPR (where folding an overpair postflop will almost be impossible), so I typically aim for a 3bet size that offers poor 8:1 implied odds to my opponent. But if stacks are deep, that 3bet size will often be too ridiculous to get any action, which leaves us in flatting territory.

Not sure what others think about this, although I'm guessing a lot will be "3bet more" (but I'm not convinced this is a great idea in my game either).

GcluelessNLnoobG

It amuses me that username "jamitontheriver" did in fact

1k deep at 1/3 in a straddled pot I'm 3! His big raise all day and expecting him to fold KK precisely never.