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Old 02-18-2019, 04:50 PM   #1
Phil Me Up
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Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

1/3. Played for only about a round. Villain is a younger guy who seems competent @ a glance & seems to open @ a high frequency. Pretty small sample though. Hero is a typical MAWG & have only played a single hand where I x/f from the SB vs a CB from Villain on Axx.

Pre/flop seem standard/ABC. Turn/river it's possible I flubbed them both. Thanks. OTTH:

Hero ($300/CO): 6 6

Fold x 2, Villain r $10, fold x 2, Hero c $10, fold, SB c $10, fold

Flop ($31): 5 3 2

x, V b $20, H c $20, fold

Turn ($64): Q

V x, H x

River: 9

V x, H b $20, V r $60, H ???
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Old 02-18-2019, 04:52 PM   #2
Garick
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

snap fold? I mean, even though you don't rep much, how much FE does he think he has against a typical MAWG who bet river?

Seems like a classic b/f scenario, and I can only see doing anything else with a lot more dynamics than are in play here.
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Old 02-18-2019, 04:53 PM   #3
twitcherroo
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

I would have bet turn once V checked to me. River i’m Snap calling for the price. Expect to beat A-rag for 1-pair.

River c/r looks FOS to me. Probably lost to pocket 7’s or 8’s though.
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Old 02-18-2019, 08:47 PM   #4
warlockjd
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

Raise flop, bet turn
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Old 02-18-2019, 09:01 PM   #5
KID777777
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

Bet turn and check back river
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Old 02-18-2019, 09:11 PM   #6
tmo1120
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

raising flop is on the table for sure,

AP the 9 OTR is so disconnected from the board, hard to believe he has 9X here or even QX

he's repping nuttish combos so I really don't mind calling OTR at this point bc his range is so wide,

Its a bad flop for his range and you have equity when called so I like a raise on the flop and then the whole plays out differently
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Old 02-18-2019, 09:44 PM   #7
ChrisV
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

I'm not crediting some random guy with having this bluff in his range. I think if you call, you're getting shown 99 or QQ a lot.

Probably QQ most of the time tbh, this fits well into my theory about people taking bizarre trappy lines with the nuts. You can see how he'd panic when he spiked top set OTT.
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Old 02-18-2019, 09:52 PM   #8
fishsoup
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-ss-s-snap fold
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Old 02-18-2019, 10:00 PM   #9
hunbrolo
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

There's no reason to raise the flop as a wet board is just bloating the pot with very little show down value. Check turn, is fine here. there's a lot of bluffs here. Missed straight, missed heart, any pair made on the flop you're beating, Ax type hand.

The reality is most people at this level aren't check raising without a decent hand but ehhh I'd pay him off here and call.
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Old 02-18-2019, 10:05 PM   #10
tmo1120
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

" Villain is a younger guy who seems competent"

not snap folding vs these guys ever, im gonna at least think things through for a minute
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Old 02-18-2019, 10:30 PM   #11
fishsoup
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

Quote:
Originally Posted by tmo1120 View Post
" Villain is a younger guy who seems competent"

not snap folding vs these guys ever, im gonna at least think things through for a minute
Fair point. however, experience tells me that everytime i give myself a reason to call I generally lose money. V ends up having some wack-o hand like 99. ha

Better off folding and not over-thinking this spot much. Mistakes were made flop/turn that led to this spot
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Old 02-19-2019, 11:51 AM   #12
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

I appreciate/understand the suggestions to bet when x to on the turn. The thought certainly crossed my mind, as it makes the hand 'easier to play' (i.e. it buys us showdown a non-trivial % of the time, maybe gets a cry call from A2s/A3s/A5s). But isn't that about it? Their x/c range OTT is pretty much crushing us (77-JJ, QQ, AQ, KQhh-Q9hh, etc.), meaning a bet is clearly not for value. However, our hand will win @ showdown a high % of the time vs his total bet-flop/check-turn range, and if we check back turn @ worst we're giving them a 12% chance to suck out w/ hands they'll x/f with now if we bet, but might stab a blank river with (KhxJx/KhTx, AhJx/AhTx, etc.). All in all I think the EV is pretty darn close versus someone we believe to be 'thinking'.

Raising flop seems pretty 'meh' when villain is making a healthy bet into 2 players on a wet/textured/dynamic board, but OK. This is a pretty old & murky debate of whether to raise/push a pair+SD vs a preflop aggressor (one I'm not super interested in rehashing here), and I typically choose not to employ the play unless we're at least heads up, and even then probably not because my hand has alot of value on turn/river versus someone who may fire more than one barrel on scare cards and/or w/ missed draws.

Thanks for people's input. Here is the thrilling conclusion to the hand:

Spoiler:

Last edited by Phil Me Up; 02-19-2019 at 11:57 AM.
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Old 02-19-2019, 03:52 PM   #13
gobbledygeek
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

I'm fine with preflop and flop.

I would likely mostly bet the turn as the last money I put in. There are some draws that we can protect against, as well as naked overcards. Once and a while we fold out a better hand. We get to define the size of the money going in. Most river cards suck, which will make bluffcatching a little more difficult (i.e. I'd be much cooler checking back a more robust TP to bluffcatch, whereas with fairly weak hands like we have I'd lean to betting).

As played, I would mostly just check back the river. The only reason to bet, imo, is a small weakass bet like we did to encourage a bluff, so I guess sigh call at this point if that was our plan.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 02-20-2019, 12:46 PM   #14
CRAIerrday
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

V's line doesn't make any sense, seems like he just knows you don't have much and is trying to steal the pot. Can't even find a hand he would checkraise river with, there's literally no reason he should expect you to bet the river in the first place.

Sometimes when the story doesn't add up you just gotta call
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Old 02-20-2019, 12:55 PM   #15
XtraScratch8
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

There’s really just no reason to bet this size at the end.
Either check back because 6’s have SDV, or bet at least 40-50 to fold out some hands you lose to. But really just check back here more often.
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Old 02-20-2019, 03:42 PM   #16
Jasaka
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

I recently had a hand where I was really annoyed with myself for calling a medium sized river bet on a blank river (flush and straight draws all missed) with bottom pair and missed OESD against a V who had shown to make thin value, even on scary boards. I talked myself into thinking she either had a big hand or a missed draw, but in reality, I should have realized she was going for thin value with middle pair (I was probably perceived to be a little sticky as I had recently called someone else's river bet with a very marginal hand). In hindsight, I was annoyed because I should have turned my missed draw and bottom pair into a bluff and raised her.

This seems like a similar situation, and possibly what the V did. If he is a thinking competent player, he certainly could have read your weak line as a marginal hand and decided to bluff raise because his one pair or worse would likely not be good at showdown (although his sizing is a bit small). Against this type of player in this situation, I would expect to see Qx, 9x, and bluffs a decent amount of the time (of course 88 and 77 would, unfortunately, be bluffs that still beat you).

For only $40 more in a pot that is over $180, I think this is an easy call against this V based on the way the hand played. However, against a bad player, I doubt to see him ever bluffing here.
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Old 02-20-2019, 03:50 PM   #17
bailashtoreth
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Re: Thin River Value Gone Wrong @ 1/3

raising flop is NOT on the table. don't turn an overpair into a bluff. that's what raising does. c otf, x ott, x r. looks like you got bluffed out on thhe end bc you turned your marginal pr into a bluff on a non-scary board.
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