$2/$5 live

#1) I open to $20 with AsJs. Only the BB calls.

Flop ($40) Qd 9s 4h...BB leads $15. I raise to $50. He says "I guess you hit the Q". He shows AK and folds.

#2) I open to $20 with KdTd in MP. Only the BB calls. Hes a 5/10 player waiting for a seat.

Flop ($40) As 4h 2c. BB leads $20. I raise to $55. He folds.

#3) 2 limpers. I raise to $25 with 9h8h OTB. Both limpers call.

Flop ($65) Td 8s 3c. First limper leads $25. Second limper folds. I raise to $75. He shows a T and folds.

Those 3 hands are from yesterdays session. I started counting and Ive gotten folds the last 11 times in a row that Ive raised a smallish donk lead in a raised pot.

mmmm... I read the Miller article you posted after.

Yesterday I played a 1/2 hand almost exactly like #1). Player donked $5 into a 3 way $30 pot. I raised $30. Other player folded, donk called. Brick OTT and I bet $75. donk check/called. River brick I just called with nut no-pair to be shown 2p.

I'm not entirely disagreeing - just to say it sure as heck isn't 100%.

Highly Player dependend play. in my 1/2£ London games, people donk 10%-30% pot with either top pair+ (which they will commit stacks with) or air.

Some people have like 90% donk on 447rb, A84rb, which makes it an auto-raise. Some people have 10% donk on Ax,Kx boards with their top pair.

So generally because I think donks are highly polarised, it pays off to raise fairly small with a high frequency and make them fold their air.

In any case this play occurs way more often with inexperienced players and I would be more likely to raise a young guy than an old one.

Hope this was any helpful.

When we say this is player dependent, what types of players do we expect to donk lead weak bets with marginal hands?

Maybe I was unclear, but I meant that this would be a good concept for discussion in the Poker Theory forum, not here. Since it's here now anyway, I guess I'll let it be.

Note that Ed Miller's article that you posted in your previous iteration of this relates to less than half-pot donk leads in multi-way pots. Your first two examples are both HU. Small donk bets HU are much more player dependent IRT whether they rep weak made hands, blocking bets for draws, or just bad bet-sizing.

Really bad players

Synopsis: Weak players vary their bet sizes by hand strength.

I have similarly gotten so many folds making this play against V's who I knew could lay down TPMK. Only 1 time (out of probably 6-7 plays) in recent memory was I called, but I've been selective about the players I use it against. It's not always the bad players. I just need to know they can fold medium strength hands and will likely view my raise as an overpair.

Yeah its a pretty good play against regfish who understand the concept that you could have an overpair as the preflop raiser. If you play in a droooler fest then it is suicide.

Bingo!

Of course you cant use this move on calling stations. I also agree that it wont work often on OMCs. They dont lead out into the raiser without the goods.

I also wait until I have a read that the player is varying his bet sizes based on his hand strength but I can still normally find 1-2 situations in a 4-5 hr session to use this move.

The article does talk abut multiway pots and I have used it successfully there also. Here's one from last week.

4 limpers. I make it $35 with AJ OTB. 3 calls.
Flop ($165). K94. Checked to cutoff who bets $50. I make it $125. Folds back to him and he says "AA is good" and shows a King and mucks. Of course in this hand it's a lot more dangerous to try it since someone can cold call behind me, but that's also why my raise looks so incredibly strong.

Nice play. I don't find that this move works that well in my game, but I have played in games where it does work consistently well.

If I were you I would keep this play to myself, but thanks for sharing!

Raising these weak donk bets often works because these players often donk bet to "See where they're at." They also want to make it a cheap betting round. Raising them tells them they are in BIG trouble and also ruins their plan to make it cheap to see the turn.

If someone is an unknown and makes a small bet on the flop when I'm the PF raiser I'll still at least strongly consider raising them.

If they bet big when they donk that tends to look much stronger in my experiences and I'm much less likely to raise those bets.

These smallish donk bets often are successful and can easily throw the PF raiser off.

Very situational. For instance, I just played a session where this hand went down. I raise to 15 with QQ utg. Get 6 callers. Flop 678hh Sb checks, BB donks 15. I fold. Another player raises to 50. BB shoves and gets called to show T9hh. I know this is mainly about heads up but I think this hand demonstrates that people with awful bet sizing can do so with all sorts of hands. Until you're positive what it means I wouldn't raise with zero equity.

The first situation Ed talks about on the flop is a multiway pot, but only one player hasn't acted yet on the flop, the other made a weak donk bet, and the other already folded. So it's really 3 way when it gets to hero and it's not that much different than a situation involving a heads up pot.

In your example 4 callers haven't acted on the flop yet and the board stinks for QQ in a 7 way pot. I definitely wouldn't raise there.

My first reaction when I saw the article mentioned here was something like "Wow raising in a multiway pot sounds really bold!" But then I read the examples and the raises are nowhere near as bold as I thought. In the first example it's 3 way when hero raises. In the second example 4 people see the flop, but hero doesn't make his bluff raise until it's HU on the turn.

I have seen a bad player make a small donk bet with a monster before but in Vegas games I've played in it's unusual, and I know a lot of the advice Ed gives is for Vegas games which do have really loose tourists, but a lot of the Vegas players tend to have a lot nitty tendencies and are often reluctant to play for stacks without two pair or better. I think as long as villains aren't super bad a lot of them will fold to a raise, and that includes regs, and even decent regs.


Is your equity really zero though? If we put villain on a range of hands he isn't going to have only monster hands. If we do put villain on a range of only monsters then we obviously don't raise. Ed Miller is talking about villains that will have hands like top pair with a weak kicker, middle pair, some type of pocket pair below top pair, or draws. We will have some equity against those types of hands. Even if you throw a few monster hands into that range we still will have equity against the range of hands.

I make other aggressive plays against players who might have monsters in their range. Even if I raise PF or just make a standard c-bet there is always a chance my opponent has a monster. The same holds true for bigger bluffs on later betting rounds; there is always a chance my opponent is at the top of his range or has an unexpected hand when I make a big bluff.

I just quickly went back to one of his old videos on RCP because I'm a member and he thinks it's a bet sizing tell he sees in Vegas. However he does mention that if you play in other locations your opponents might play differently.

Donkbets have more to do with flop texture & player count than bet size. I would never try to bluff someone who donkbet on a very coordinated board because I expect my bluff to fail. The reason they are donkbetting in that situation is either because they have a monster that they dont want to get checked around and miss value, or they are just trying to set the price for their own draw which they will never fold even if you raise them. Basically in their view $15 would be nice to see an OESD with, but they'll gladly pay $50 too.

Now on a dry board like 247r someone will often donkbet with a weak pair trying to "see where they're at". If you raised preflop they're aware you could have an overpair, but they also know people cbet a lot. The way they figure if they donkbet they are telegraphing the fact they have a hand, and no way would you try to bluff with ace high. So if you raise them they feel confident you are in fact telling the truth and their weak pair is no good.

Lol you read him like a book. Keep playing with that guy and keep raising him. When he calls you know he has 2p+ and you can safely fold. Don't show him bluffs because he must think you're a tight player who will only play with the nuts.