Why isn't 99 calling one bet? Villains will put you on AK and call here all the time, especially opening UTG. Everyone says J high flops are bad to c-bet with overs because PP's will call you. This is exactly what we want to happen.

because villains should be playing straightforward, as you mentioned earlier. That goes for us, also. People don't usually c-bet AK into this many villains. A bet into this many villains represents something that beats 99 on a jack high board, so 99 should be folding.

Even if I give you 66-99 calling (which I'm not ready to do), those 24 combos don't beat the 42 combos of AJ/KJ/QJ/JT out there.

Assuming villains are competent is a mistake. Calling a bet with 99 isn't even necessarily a mistake depending on Hero's image.

And when you add in all the combos of straight draws and flush draws I have a feeling they far outnumber the 42 combos of Jx.

Straight up value bet. Expecting calls from a jack, flush draw, OESD, sometime middle pair with a big spade, maybe even a gutshot. Nobody here is shipping me with a draw or worse hand so I can just fold if $200 more. If I have queens here, a hand like As5h has a fair amount of outs. I'd like him to fold or pay me now. If a spade comes on turn I might feel obliged to check and he can see the river for free or can bet and put the pressure on. I'd like to charge him a premium now.

If you are happy confidently folding for $200 more when shoved on why not bet 70 instead of 100? You save money when shipped on, get value from a slightly wider range, and still set up a turn value shove.

If I bet $70, get a call behind from a jack, another from a nut draw, a player behind with 5-6 outs is getting than 5-1 immediate odds and if I ama shipping the turn he can be getting like 9:1 with implied odds, even more if other draw is continuing or fish and his jack aren't folding.

If we have aces or kings with a spade, letting them in isn't so bad because we have redraws, we don't mind them padding the pot, they might continue on a turn spade with a lower spade.

Makes sense?

So basically, you bet more because you have a weaker hand; whereas if you have AA/KK you want to bet less because of our redraws?

As most people have stated, $70 (or a similar cbet size) accomplishes the same thing here as $100. You already know what hands are continuing against you with a bet (aside from that $3 villian "check"). If you believe Jx is calling for $70, then you're almost lighting the extra $30 on fire.

I was assuming we had an overpair in my last two posts.

This is all fine.

Now the next question is, combinatorially, how much of the range you just assigned is Jx?

If assume overpairs, and the same action; our spr is 2 now.

With a $70 bet, the only issue would be vs the thinking lag (was it the Asian?) Since everyone is generally playing their hands face-up.

J8-AJ is 54combos

AsXs(9),KsXs (9),Qs8s-QsTs (3),T8,T7,98,97,96,87,86,85,76,75=31 combos (ignoring the suited jacks)

OESD:76=15 combos (discluding 7s6s)

As4,As5=2 combos

77-TT is 24 combos (prob. should discount)

Ignoring gutshots Jx is 54 of 126 combos.

You block two of the tens and the T, so you're counting 5 combos of TT and 2 combos of T8s and T7s that shouldn't be there. So Jx is 54 of 119 combos.

So when you bet and get called, your equity actually isn't great at all. Almost half the time you are drawing to 2 outs, and then when you do get called by a hand other than Jx they'll usually have a lot of outs or at least cards that can come to convince you to give a free card. And you also have not counted hands like 55/44/54 that can raise your bet, making the c-bet even less profitable. If we toss a total of 15 combos of those in, you're looking at 69 out of 134 times--or more than half--that you are way behind when your c-bet doesn't fold out the field. And you are almost never way ahead.

That's why c-betting isn't great here. Being behind top pair is kind of a big deal.

^ however, you can certainly argue that our UTG open and flop c-bet will be perceived as stronger than a pair of jacks and fold out a lot of the weaker Jx combos, thus swinging the odds back in our favor.

Is it possible that our bet can be a bluff vs. combos of Jx and simultaneously a value bet vs. the draws?

If you have a good image, I can easily see people folding hands like J9s that were calling for straight, flush and two pair possibilities, not necessarily stacking off with a pair of jacks.

I thought we had an overpair in this exercise.

I bet $100 instead of a smaller amount because I thought the extra might buy me some fold equity against JT or something. I'm obviously repping an overpair here and $100 is a big bet for someone who thinks in absolute $ amounts. That said, a fish didn't call $30 pre flop to fold top pair. A reg would fold top pair here though, maybe.

Edit: JB beat me to it.

OK so here is the thing. If you're betting with an overpair because you want value from Jx, then for the exact same reason, betting TT as a bluff doesn't work. And as I just showed, betting TT for value is too thin.

My only point is, those people who are telling you this is a bad c-bet--this is why.

Why can't you target the range Vernon? We don't know if they have AJ, J8 or garbage that missed. The results of any hand don't matter, but if you look at it as a Monte Carlo simulation of 1000 trials, I think the value is there, even if it's thin. I'm just thinking on the fly here, but I feel our hand has value enough to bet.

So are we trying to get J9 to fold but 66-99 to call? If it's a (correct) value bet you'll be left unsure what to do on turn cards. What happens if you check and they decide to bet into you? Are you c-betting blank turns or overcard turns? What happens if you get called in more than one spot?

I don't know, it's all player dependent. But if you are thinking of it as an infinite series of simulations, I feel:

The times we win the pot uncontested on the flop with a bet + the times we win the pot uncontested on the turn with a shove + the times we win the pot shoving the turn when the river bricks > the times we lose the pot shoving the turn to Jx and draws

where times = EV

Realistically, if you c-bet this flop you are basically committed to shoving the turn on non-spades, so while it is a high variance play I think the EV is still +

You are always going to have some FE vs. Jx here

I mean I get the sum, but as others have pointed out we aren't going to win the pot very often uncontested, we are behind a reasonable range and getting people to fold JX in a game where there already have been lots of hero calls doesn't seem like a good plan. The board is very wet and is J high, People love calling with JX hands pre, most flush draws we are pretty much flipping with.

You may be right. I think it's very close, but I feel we'll often end up check/folding the best hand to a semi-bluff.

I can't remember where I remember reading it (Ed Miller or Harrington), but he/they said whenever you are having a hard time deciding the best course of action (ie: this hand, very close), the more aggressive action is usually the best choice.

I've tried to incorporate it into my game. I often have players say "Wow, you shoved with that hand?!" when I shove with a hand they deem weak but is actually pretty strong relatively.

Are you shoving turn for value or as a bluff?

I believe you're shoving for both reasons: value against flush draws and as a bluff against Jx.

However, I think you have close to 0 FE at live poker against Jx that called a huge bet on the flop when nothing changed on the turn. Bart Hanson once said, "LLSNL players are emotionally invested in the pot once significant money goes in."

Assuming the above is true, you're essentially shoving turn as a bluff to fold out flush draws ONLY.

^ If someone has a naked flush draw on the turn we are shoving for value because we want a call.

If someone called our flop bet with Jx where x<K, we can bluff shove A and K turns since villains love to put you on AK

Depending on the V, I think you can also get certain V's to fold Jx to a turn barrel that didn't believe you on the flop

And then we have the ~10% of times we hit a sneaky set on the turn or river for some added equity

I'm not saying this is a slam dunk spot or anything, just playing devil's advocate that it's +EV

Sorry, I meant you're shoving only for value against flush draws and not as a bluff to fold out Jx.

I agree that A and K are good double barrel cards, and Q as well to a lesser extent, where you could shove as a bluff to fold out Jx too. However, those cards, especially an Ace, could easily have turned two pair (AJ) or helped the nut flush draw turn TP, so I'm not really sure if it's really a good card to DB.

I think it could be +EV against the correct Vs, but against the majority of LLSNL fish, they're just never folding once they call their $100 raise on the flop.

However, I still feel a flop bet is a MUST and we can't insta-put Vs on Jx/spades here. If called, we should be ready to check/fold to any aggression on the turn.