This thread is the inital stages of me setting up a 17 month live poker challenge. I am looking for some input on my thoughts on strategy and risk, and therefore post it here in the live poker forum, where I expect a larger segment of people who are interested and can give me some qualified advice on this particular venture. I think this roadmap turned out pretty well as I was formulating the post, but I would appreciate all input that would help to make it better, and perhaps it can inspire other people to make a solid plan. I just read the King Krab thread and that kind of convinced me that I needed to do some planning like this

I might turn it into a PCG thread when the challenge takes off.

This post will cover my poker background, my goal and my plan of action.


BACKGROUND FOR THE CHALLENGE
I play in my home country in Europe, and I have been a winning player for about 6 years. I've played lots of both online and live, but somehow the steady bankroll building have always eluded me. It's the usual stuff: I spend way too much and I have had no financial planning what so ever. But this has slowly started to change during the last year and a half with my awesome girlfriend, and I am ready to give it some real effort in order to become a truly succesfull part time poker player. Part time because I work a full time job and would have it no other way at the moment.

I am solidly up in tours both online and live. I am well up in live cash and I am probably huge down in online cash. If I single table or perhaps even 2 table online cash I win, but somehow I cannot get my head around a steady effort online and I end up loosing one way or the other. I just don't care about the digital chips or money. Also, online poker has a tremendous negative effect on my overall well being and quality of life, because when I have money online I just can't stop thinking about playing poker and winning more and more. I start playing long sessions, even when I should not because I have much more important tasks at hand. I have tried calling in sick to work because I fancied the idea of sitting for a full 15 hours in my boxers grinding 9 tables and ordering fast food for every meal. It started off well enough, but at some point as always - even though I felt my head was clear - I started spewing and taking beats in no particular order.

It wasn't too long ago that I suddenly realized that I have NEVER sticked with a certain game of choice or a real plan online for more than 1 or 2 days. 1 or 2 days! That is a recipe for recurring disaster.

And truth be told, I always find some peace of mind in spewing an online roll - I find comfort in the fact that I don't have to think about online poker at all and my mind moves on to more important stuff like work, fun and sports. Bottom line is that my head is not geared for multitabling online cash, no matter how much I would like it to be.

My life of live cash is a much different beast. I am sociable and have a good time at the table and I take pride in winning and putting my edge to work throughout the entire session. And then when I am done my head is clear. Of course, on the way home I think about some key hands, spots and players and try to work out how to adapt next time, but when I get back home and lie down to sleep the thoughts of poker evaporates from my mind and doesn't really start showing up until next time I go to play. However, I am crap at sticking to BRM and having a long term plan. My real challenge in poker now is not as much about playing the game, but rather about self mastery and discipline, and building balance and flow both off and on the felt.

Therefore I will dedicate the next 17 months to win as big as I possibly can in live poker. It will be mainly cash game in order to fit with my life outside poker, and some juicy tours when I have the time and feel ready to sit through to the end.


GOAL

1.
To quadruple my initial 50,000 bank roll to 200,000 from 1st of August 2015 until New Years Eve 2016, and moving from the 10/10 and 10/20 stakes spread over local clubs and casinos to the 50/50 game at the main casino. (My currecncy is about 1/5 of USD, so for you americans it would be: Quadruple 10k USD roll to 40k USD in 17 months, and moving from the 2/2 and 2/4 games to the 10/10 game. I'll use my own currency henceforth as it is easier for me and the currency isn't really that important).

2.
To avoid that the challenge have noticable negative impact on my day job performance, and a neglible negative impact on my activities outside work and poker, ie. girlfriend, family, friends, activities and interests. In fact, I hope that my dedication to the above stated goal will help me improve in all other aspects of my life.


THE PLAN
I am working full time and have to fit in poker along with other obligations and fun. Therefore I plan to play two times a week spread over Thursday, Friday and Saturday. This way I limit the impact on my sleep schedule and workday by resetting sleep schedules over the course of the weekend. I expect to play from 8 pm to about 2-3.30 am when I have sessions. Input, experiences, tips and tricks?!

This would give me about 7 hours of play each session, so 14h/week. The challenge is 17 months, so I call that an even 68 weeks. That's 952 hours total and 19040 hands (avg 20 hands pr hour). My planning assumes 952 hours, but I don't honestly believe I will reach that many. But as this is a blueprint of how I would like the challenge to go, I might as well just accept that I have to play catch up on the hours.

I am setting 5k aside at the beginning of the challenge to take care of expenses such as transportation, food, drinks, entrance fees and other expenses that might incur, so initial BR is 45,000.

Winrate
I only started detailed tracking of my poker income 14 months ago and since then I've played about 230 hours of Texas Holdem spread out over three or four venues in cash and about 15 tours of small fields turbo 250rebuy and some 500 re entry. all shown in the graph below. Profit is spread about even with about 33k profit in cash (1/2, 10/10 and 50/50 stakes) and 27k in tours. I assume that my observed winrates over this sample is higher than my true winrate over a long stretch of time and hands.

I am a tested live player through about six years and most often correctly perceive myself as one of the best or the best player at the table. Also, I am quite sociable and talkative, so I am usually good at befriending fish and getting action. My table talk is garbage however, so I mainly talk when I am not in a hand and keep my mouth shut when I have two cards in front of me.

I aim to make 5bb/hour which would be about 25bb/100h. Also, I assume that my winrate does not differ by much at the different stakes and this will just have to stand solid until I get a larger sample size. I've seen people in the PCG observe a 10bb/hour winrate, so I think my 5bb/hour is a fair assumption to use for me planning. Any good input on winrates?

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Step 1, Small casinoes
Buyin full at both 10/10 and 10/20 games to start the challenge and grow my roll 35k, from 45k to 80k.

Assuming I play even hours of 10/10 and 10/20 with a winrate of 5bb/hour in both games, it should take about 8 months and 1 week to grind it out (462 hours and 9240 hands to be precise).

56 hours * 8.25 months * 5bb * 15 = 34.650 profit

That's close enough to 35k profit to move on to step 2 with.


Step 2, The main game
Now I have 80k and I am going to take 3 bullets of 80bb buyin in the 50/50 game (4,000 each). The game doesn't play all that different from 80 to 100bb start stack and this way I have a mindset of 20 bullets for this game. I will only use 12,000 on the shot, and if the 3 bullets fail, I will go back and rebuild. The following plan assumes the 3 bullets does not fail and I bite my teeth into the 50/50 game, but this is all just theory.

Now I need to make 120,000 over 10 months and grow the bankroll from 80k to 200k.
The plan is to stick with 4k buyin til I reach 120k roll. Then I have made some bank roll room to buyin for 5k in the game.

490 hours and 9800 hands

56 hours * 8,75 months * 5bb * 50= 122,500 profit

Step 1 + Step 2 Total: 157,150 profit


RISK OF RUIN (RoR)

I've used this poker calculator in order to better understand my risks of failing.

I've calculated two RoR options, one for each of the above step. I plot in 25bb/hour, no observed winrate, and then a standard deviation of 100 (I play comfortable LAG, but I am really uncertain about this standard deviation thing, inputs?!?)

Step 1, 9,200 hands at 10/10 and 10/20 with 45k start roll

• This leaves me with a worst case scenario where I am -1,200 bb after about 8k hands, and at best +5,100bb after 9k hands.
• Also it gives me a 0,8% chance of loss after all the hands.

Step 2, 9,800 hands at 50/50 with 80k start roll

• This leaves me with a worst case scenario where I am -950bb down after 9,500 hands and at best +9,300bb after 9,500 hands.
• Also it gives me a 0,6% chance of loss after all the hands.

Ok, I think I understand that. Nothing to dwell on here, it is pretty straight forward, right...right?!?


I think that it is for now, I will add more stuff if I think of something.

reserved

Post this in PG&C or Blogs. This is a strat forum.