Hey no problem. I'm playing around with a lot of math scenarios away from the table so that I can hopefully remember some of it when I sit down...dealers usually don't take too kindly to a guy pulling a calculator out of a pocket protector to compare EV, and it tends to become a bit of a tell as well.

I would never be able to remember all of those details, but the biggest take away is that fold equity requirements change dramatically when we hold double digit clean outs. In this case, we would have needed 57% fold equity on the turn if we had zero outs, but we instead only needed him to fold a quarter of the time. Of course, having that info means nothing if our villain is the type to call 100% of the time with TPTK, so being able to know your villain is still the most important skill IMO.

As far as villain's "I don't know" answer...I think that translates to "I would have insta-folded." Players become concerned that their image might change after a play like that, so he doesn't want the rest of the table to think they can push him off top pair without a big risk.

One other thing I thought about just now in regard to plays like this...do we ever get worried that a turn shove hurts the credibility of the story we're telling villain? If we PF raise and raise his flop donk, then we're polarized between overpairs/sets and superdraws. If we had the overpair/set, is a shove really the best way to get value from his range, or do we think that he thinks we would usually bet something like 3/4 pot on the turn? Or are we relying on him thinking that we know that he knows we're polarized and therefore think that an overbet gets max value? Because based on image, I don't think he can ever think that we think his range has a lot of draws...I think he knows that we think he holds a lot of Kx type hands. So we probably don't make a shove to charge a drawing hand full price, we only make a shove because we think he thinks we're polarized and this is the most effective way to get full value (which is a little odd, since we have two streets and could easily go 1/2 pot on turn and 1/2 pot on river to force crying calls from him). I know I'm getting a little carried away with metagame for this type of villain, but does some of that make sense?

When there's a flush draw on the flop and villains don't have it (they have tp or whatever) they tend to think other people have the flush draw

Don't know how likely villain would be to fold at any point in the hand..

I would have called his flop bet and reevaluated on the turn

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This is horrible advice. We are the PFR. We have a lot of strong Kx in our raising range. This situation is great spot to semi-bluff raise over a weak donk-bet with a ton of equity.

The recommendation to open-shove flop over his donk-bet is ******ed too. It makes our hand look exactly like a draw when we open-shove for such a ******ed large sizing over a $20 donk-bet.

I do not think so, your original read was right, he was not folding AK there, even if he thinks he might once in awhile, he isn't, do not doubt that for a second.

I'm fine with following a strat and not being results oriented but you also have to make good reads & ranges and then trust the decisions you make with that info. Sure there are villains out there who don't always have a King that they go broke with there but this is not one of those. Don't take the lesson as "I should have shoved turn" but instead "I know my man enough to sacrifice paper equity instead of chips."

imo

Rule of thumb: most LLSNL players make the mistake of calling too much. Shoving big draws is great against someone with a fold button. Until we know the player has a fold button, we are simply guessing spewing.

I don't mind the flop raise as donk bets are often made by a weak top pair hand betting a wet board to "see where they are at". When you raise AND get called, we have reason to believe we are bumping against the top end of our villain's range. Based on your description of the villain, I tend to believe that this would be AK+ with maybe KQ+ being included. Sets are unlikely as most villains repop those on a wet board.
Our issue then becomes can we get a villain to fold a top pair hand. Based on what we know about LLSNL players...the answer is probably no.