1/2$ NLHE, Thursday night, full ring
So this hand happened about 3 months ago and I have wondered about it for some time. I'm pretty sure I have the stacks and bet sizes correct, but if any of the other 2+2ers that were at the table see this and can correct the sizes, let us know.
I think we had 5 2+2ers at the table. One of the guys from our poker group (WP in da houseee!) is moving out to LA to play full time and we decided to get drunk and play 1/2$ the night before he leaves. We would typically all play at the same table and have drinks about once a month. The dynamic in these games are insane...levels on levels on levels on levels. Lots of fun but REALLY makes you think since you know your V is a player who clearly beats the game and is a studier and thinker. All of the guys from my poker group play 2/5+ for a living. I am the only one who does not. Regardless, we all respect each other's games and know playing at this table is not the best EV option...we are doing it for fun.

The Table: Most from my group are in the 1-6 seats with 3 unknowns in the rest. If I remember correctly, most of us have around 400$ besides 2 of the unknowns. Walking by the table, seeing drinks and loud talkers, 200BB stacks, an unknown would think this table is great...little do they know. Anyways, I was the last player to get a seat change and join the group. I don't know who is stuck an who is running good.

Hero: 425$, white male, mid 20s. I play spewey, i play tight, i play dumb, i float, I bomb with nuts...i do it all; as do the rest of these players. The only hand I remember going to showdown was against 2+2er who is moving out to LA on my direct right. I called his raise pre (he is on my direct right), 3way to flop, checks to me, I bet a FD, random folds, V calls, turn bricks, he check calls, river bricks, I value bluff for about 1/5 pot and he folds...I show a busted FD with an over.

V: 400$, white male, mid 20s, probably deepest thinker at the table; TAGish. Just plain good poker player who you want to stay away from...but we are having fun tonight! Over the long run, when we all get together and drink at a 1/2$ table, I have shipped a good amount of moniez to this guy in 2 or 3 coolers with deep stacks...it happens; he has my number. V reads hands very well and is not afraid to fastplay or slowplay, force action, or trap...he just makes good decisions time after time.

The Hand:
Hero opens to 15$ with JJ UTG. 2 randoms call, V calls in SB.

The Flop:
J106 (62$)
V checks to hero who bets 45$, I think there was one caller from the randoms, V makes it 125$.

Hero? What is V doing this with?

With this many levels going down i may just ship it right here and let him level himself into a call with a heart or tp thinking your on a heart draw...

Think he usually has flushes.

I don't think there's any way you can get away from this hand.

If V flopped a flush you're only about a 2-1 dog. Even if he has KQ or 98 for the straight flush redraw, your equity only falls to about 32%.

As for what V can be making this move with, it's complicated by the fact that he's in the SB behind 2 callers. We presumably have to widen his range quite a bit given the odds he's getting and the fact that the dynamic in the game is, as you put it, insane. But would he call preflop with any two hearts?

I'm making quite a few assumptions to come up with V's range, so adjust as you see fit, but I think by and large they're reasonable.

- He's not playing any two hearts, but he might call with Ax or any connected hearts (but not gappers) down to 54

- His range includes offsuit aces from AT up, with A

- He would play both TT and 66 here as set mining hands (given the relatively small check-raise on a 3-heart flop, this one's more questionable)

- He would never make this play with an overpair except AA or KK with A or K

Against this range, Equilab says you have 58.7% equity. Even if we take out TT and 66 you still have 51.6%. V's range has to get VERY flush-heavy before you can even consider folding, and in practice I just don't think you can ever fold top set in this spot against anyone but a confirmed uber-nit.

Given the SPR if you call and the number of scare cards that can fall on the turn, I think shoving here is your only play.

smooth call

obviously you can't really get away from the hand. you're may be a dog to a made flush, but not as big a dog as he is if he has a lower set or some kind of flush draw

Not sure I follow your reasoning here, ggnoobs. Why would we smooth call rather than shove? What action are we hoping for on the turn?

If V is drawing to the nut flush, we're never getting called on the turn unless he hits, and there's a decent chance he'll call the flop if we shove, especially if he has overcards that he thinks are outs. And if he folds his draw, I don't think we're too upset about picking up the pot then and there.

If he has a smaller set, another heart hitting the board probably means both players check down and we've lost a lot of value from hands that we were absolutely crushing.

If he already has the flush, what do we gain by calling rather than raising the flop? If it's a small flush and another heart comes, maybe we save a bit of money when it gets checked down. But if no heart comes on the turn and V fires again, we're stacking off no matter what.

Also, if V reads us as having a set (and we're not repping much else if he's got the flush) and the board pairs on the turn, he may be a good enough player to get away from his hand.

What's the upside of a call on the flop when we know we're going to gii at some point?

With a random to act behind on the flop, I'd call the c/r because the random can give you an overlay to fill up.

We're in position on the 2p2er so if the board pairs on the turn he might lead into your top full.

Yeah, it's a flush a lot.

From his value range:

Non-flush hands = 66 (3), TT (3), JTs (1) = 7 combos.

Flush hands = Randomly guessing ~20-25 combos.

Good players like the one OP describes aren't flatting oop here with many unpaired unsuited hands. I don't expect villain to have something like AhTx oop facing a UTG open. I think there are a small # of semi-bluffs in villain's range. Maybe a few strong Ax, maybe a few combo draws with KhQx type hands. But it really shouldn't add up to very much at all.

Call the flop. You're getting 3.5:1 and you have position on villain and there's another likely caller in the hand.

You're not folding very often, but I think giving the 3rd villain a chance to call behind on the flop and getting the main villain to shove a potentially slightly wider range on the turn than he would get in on the flop makes it more profitable.

Also, if V shoves a 4th heart turn into 2 people, I think you can just fold at that point getting like ~1.5:1, having a villain who is very unlikely to be turning a worse value hand into a bluff, another villain behind who may or may not call as well, and being a 4:1 dog to improve.

So calling the flop knowing we'll have position on the main V with the strongest range certainly helps, and our plan should be to stack off on all non-hearts imo - basically 80% of the time. Calling gives us a chance to see another card, see what villain does, and we're basically committed to getting it in - just like we would on the flop, but here with a little more information about what the turn card is and what villain does first to act.

Smooth call and see the turn. You're getting near pot odds to call against a flush. However, a shove isn't giving you good odds. There's less than a PSB even if you are the only caller. Check the turn whether you hit or not. Don't be afraid of giving away a free card, you have more outs going to the river than the FD has.

Oh yeah, and finally, I don't think villain ever gets away when the turns pairs.

He's committed on every turn (if he has the flush, anyhow), imo, but we're committed only on non-heart turns.

That creates a subtle bit of RIO here that benefits us and hurts villain imo.

if we jam flop, V won't fold a flush draw. he committed himself with his raise (to call the shove is $260 for $617).

we can maximize our expectation against worse hands since we can't get away from the hand anyways. we have position. smooth call and allow him to continue to be aggressive with hands that are way behind on a blank (i.e. non-heart) turn.

as a bonus, calling also allows the guy behind us (the "random caller") to potentially play with us without having a nut hand.

Sorry, I misread the OP. With a random caller behind, the smooth call makes a lot more sense.