$2/$5 FR (9 Handed) Hero gets dealt T9 in MP with $850 stack.

UTG (somewhat TAG but on the looser side) raises to $15/$300. UTG+1 calls/$350 (Tight/Passive). Hero calls (Playing TAG but on a looser side today) $15. Two more callers in LP.

SB (relatively ABC TAG but a bit station-y) raises to $40/$470. BB Folds. Villain 1 calls. Villain 2 calls. Hero calls. Two LP players also call.

Flop ($245): 864

SB C-bets, $130/$430.

Villain 1 folds. Villain 2 folds.

Hero?

fold pre

Ship it.
Gut shot, club draw, possible 1 over (but unlikely), and a conservative 15% fold equity, and dead money in the pot = +EV to ship.
Get calls or folds.

Profit.

Stack sizes for the guys behind us?

Pretty awesome flop for our hand. I'll admit this is lazy analysis but if we're not willing to play a big pot on flops like this then we should fold pre. We are basically 50/50 against overpairs now and there's already a ton of dead money in the pot. Throw in a little bit of fold equity and I'm getting it in.

The two LP players behind are both arround 300.

Calling the $15 was loose but OK. You have to give up to the $40 raise though, you are just deep enough you could call here but villains are not. Effective stacks are too short for them to pay you off.

As played, shove. The dead money in the pot makes this +EV against an over pair even without any FE. It is going to be huge variance though because villain is likely to call and you probably do have to catch a flush or the gut shot to win.

Aren't we getting 6:1 direct odds pot and like 17:1 IO just from the OR?

Seems ok given we have position and a hand that's very unlikely to be dominated by a normal 3betting range OOP.

Grunch..

His range is typically over pairs here. Is this guy tight enough where if you call and peel here and a club comes off he's done with the hand?

It's a standard c-bet post flop but if you run into the top of his range there's no moving him off of it.

This is these spots you want when you play hands like this.
Multi way pre.
Flop fairly hard
And have action into you.

Sometimes i like to gamble here and just shove in. ( hoping for a call but fine with a fold)

I see to often when you flat here you lose all action when you make your hand.

There's debate on all three sides for sure.
Fold pre (tooooo nitty)
Call. ( too transparent IMO)
Jamming now and applying max pressure.
If you flopped a set here you would rarely ever just call on this board. You almost always raising and with spr getting close I'm tank raising/jamming

Can't remember eff stakes If he's deep you can make it $410~

Just want to touch on this real quick.

When you shove you want him to fold.
You are 48% to win the hand against most overpairs, which is all well and good, and we are making a +EV play even if he doesn't fold given all the dead money in the pot.

But when he folds, he makes a mistake. He is getting ~2.66:1 on his money and he's 52% to win the hand. Which means that he's giving up a lot of EV when he folds. And when he calls, he's taking a +EV situation.
He's calling $300 into a $800 pot, and he's 52% to win.

So, if he folds, he is break even. If he calls, 52% of the time he is +800 and 48% of the time he is -300.
+$416 - $144 = +$272 in value is how much he makes by calling, which means that it's a $272 mistake for him to fold. That's HUGE.

So, we don't want him to call. ducy?

Agreed ^

Fold equity = 0 IMO. Ship it anyway. You need to realize your equity in a pot with that small of an SPR and that's the only way to do it.

Btw... time to go table change or go home if 60% of the players on the table are shortys and 30% are middlers.

Fold equity = 0... So let's shove? Great advice.

Yes, but in a 3 bet pot hero is unlikely to get to chase cheaply on the flop or get the odds to chase on flop. In this sort of situation I would be looking for 25 to 1 or better and it's just not there. Hero has to flop a monster draw or two pair+ to play past flop and isn't getting the odds for that. Against the 3 better the implied + direct odds are almost enough, but everybody else is too short.

It's the right one here. With a coin flip draw and a pot that is a good portion of effective stack size hero and villain are effectively splitting the money in the pot and are both +EV to shove here.

flop is obvious ship

pre is very questionable. playing like this is quite -ev

you want to only play hands like this when you are the preflop aggressor, just fold them if someone else raises first

Lol at pre being questionable.

FLOP is definitely not a ship against a station...you guys are over-estimating your FE against this type of villain. Furthermore, even if you hit your flush you will likely still get paid...so the argument of "ship it now to get his entire stack if we hit" is moot.

A lot depends on villain's turn play characteristics. Stations, in my experience, tend to go into ch/call mode on the turn with their premium pairs, which is great because we can take a free card on the turn. Even if villain shoves his stack on the turn 50% of the time and checks the other 50% of the time, we still have direct odds to just call the flop bet.

3 bet or fold pre you aren't closing the action. As played that's a dream flop and you are likely to have 12 outs twice. Shove

I just puked reading this.
Horrible advice

We raise all in to $430.

When called, we've put in $430 to win $1,105. So we need 39% equity.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

5,940 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 864

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Tc9c	45.56%	2,706	0
AA	54.44%	3,234	0

we don't need any fold equity...

iraisetoomuch is right that we want villain to fold, because our edge is pretty small when he calls. When he folds, it's a variance-free pot for us.

But it's important to understand that even when villain calls, we are still making a profit.

TY TY TY

someone using more than 1% of their brain 😎

Tell me more.


Hero is pretty durn deep and i guess he can afford to take a spin on the wheel of fortune, given a hand that plays well multiway, and the villains are short enough to feel pot committed at some point in the hand. But dang. Hate being in the middle of all that stuff with a marginal flop-it-or-drop-it kinda hand.

I don't think you guys are paying attention to villain's description. OP describes villain as station-y:

1) A station will pay off when we hit
2) A station won't fold if we shove

Against this player type, a shove is never more +EV than calling flop bet. You can argue about scare cards hitting and freezing the action, etc etc etc. It doesn't matter with a station who has little regard to relative hand strength.
Calling here is more +EV than shoving. There is the added possibility villain will take a ch/call line on turn and we can use it to get a free card. We will either stack him with the nuts on the river or save $$

Problem with a call, in general, is that with two cards to come, you have a ton of equity otf. Maybe not so much on the turn.

I could see calling if there's some possibility the other two villains are along for the ride.

If not, you gotta figure SB shoves $300 into a $500 pot if a safe card falls on the turn. That would suck.

Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

That's nonsense. Using your numbers the EV of shoving is .4556 * 860 - 430 or -38.184.

We don't become any more likely or less likely to win the current pot when we shove.

How in the world could anyone believe that putting money in the pot and being less than 50% likely for that money (doubled-up) to be returned to you was profitable?

You give me 430, less than half the time I'll give you 860 back. Profitable bet?