I am a decent, recreational 30/60 FL player in Colorado. I play approximately once or twice per month (maybe 20x/year) for 6-10 hours depending on win/loss, game conditions and personal responsibilities, etc. I've been playing like this for 10 years +.

I try to play with 35 Big Bets as sit down money ($2,100). This seems like plenty compared to a lot of my opps. I am confident I can make 1 BB/hour on average at my current game. I don't keep regular stats. Of course, some days I lose a grand +, some days I win a grand +.

I never really have much of a bankroll above and beyond $2-4k. Usually I spend any nice scores. If I have a terrible session I just save money for 2 months before I go up again.

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I am moving to Maryland and the nearest casino is over an hour away. The biggest fixed limit game they carry is 10/20. Seems pretty small compared to what I'm used to. I don't want to drive 2.5 hours and play for 8+ hours only to expect to make $150.

The biggest NL game they carry is $5/$10. I have played this before in Florida. As you all know - there is huge variance in this game compared to FL. It is a pretty big game from my perspective. I'd like to play it and make it my "regular" game. But I understand that if my bankroll is only 1-2 buy-ins, I could lose it all a lot faster in NL than FL.

Q: I am trying to figure out a modest recreational bankroll.
Harrington would recommend $20,000 dollars and I would have to save for years to put that aside. (Not to mention that my wife would flip out if she saw this kind of bankroll!) I'm not going to put aside 20k. I'm thinking of getting $5,000 and if I lose 1-2k in a session, then saving for a couple months before I go back up.

Also,

Q: What is a realistic win rate and standard deviation to aim for. (I know that this depends upon a million factors - sorry for the ridiculous question).
BUT, some folks say 2bb /100 hands. That would be ridiculous. If 100 hands take 2.5 hours than we'd be talking 8$/hour.
Other folks make seemingly incredible claims about 30bb/100 hands. That's $120/hour. That seems a little optimistic.

I would be happy making $50/hour. That would be 12.5bb/100 hands.

Q: Is 10-15 bb/100 a realistic win rate?

Q: What is a realistic standard deviation to expect? I have heard 10x the win rate. Does that sound right?

Thanks. I know these are very basic Q's and probably a little difficult to answer without more info. I'm just looking for approximations.

MC

I play a lot of live 5/10 and the max buyin for this game depending on where you are is usually 2k/2500/uncapped so it will play much bigger. 20k is nowhere near the roll you would need to play this game. I would suggest playing 2/5 to build a roll to about 20-25k and eventually taking some shots at 5:10. Keep in mind as a recreational player you may be a losing player in these larger stakes games.

Thanks. I'm sure you are right about playing 2/5 for a couple of years first.

What do you think about a win rate of 10-15 bb/100 in a NL cash game? is this realistic and possible?

10x WR for std deviation? Does that sound about right?

I'm just having trouble wrapping my head around the difference in money required and potential for money earned in a session between FL and NL.

This casino also offers 1/3 and 2/5 in addition to 5/10. But I don't want to have an expected win rate of $6 dollars an hour. I'll just keep playing FL in that case, at least I know I'm good at that game and can manage the money recreationally without losing the mortgage money.

MC

Swings in no limit are a joke compared to those in fixed limit holdem. So these are good news.
If you are successful 30/60 LHE player, do not assume that this would mean you'd be capable of beating 5/10 NL right off the bat. Games are vastly different (and NL is much, much more complex than already complex LHE).
I would not recommend taking a shot at 5/10. Start lower, even if this would mean unbeatable rake.

This conversation is kind of pointless. It sounds like you haven't played much NL cash at all. So... you don't have a win-rate.

In fact, the vast majority of players don't have a win-rate.
They have a loss-rate.

Rather than focusing on win-rate numbers, just focus on playing the best you possibly can.

Think about it this way:
Roughly 10% of poker players are life-time winners.
So at a 10-handed table, only 1 player is a winner (on average).

What makes you think you'll be that 1 guy?

Understood.

Really I just want a goal to aim for.

What is a realistic, moderate win rate in a cash game?
What is a realistic std deviation?

If you're making the switch from Limit to No Limit, I would recommend putting in a few hundred hours at the kiddie table (1/2 NL) before even thinking of moving up to higher stakes. That way you still get the thrill of playing poker, while learning a new game, all the while comfortably within your rec player bankroll; even if you run averagely good at this low stake you'll probably only win 1/3rd of what you were winning at your bigger Limit stakes, but at least you'll be getting your feet wet, and getting your confidence before moving up.

ETA: As for the winrates question, check out the Winrates thread. Spoiler: 10 bbs/hr is pretty crushing, although some are posting winrates that big (and bigger) in that thread, although obviously posting bias comes into play.

GLimitversusNoLimitaretotallydifferentgameswithtot allydifferentstrategies,imoG

Also, Da Yu, let me just say that I find it hilarious how poker players always have to lecture other poker players on how much of an idiot they are. I said right in my question that I understood it was a stupid question but that I was just looking for approximations.

I'm a recreational player, I like to play for fun. I play 10-20 times per year and I like to play at stakes that feel like I'm betting real money. If I lose, I lose. I never said I was a pro.

Comments like your comments are not helpful and aren't even meant to be helpful. It is just an example of "keyboard cajones". Anyone who has ever played online is familiar with guys like you. If you want to be helpful and answer a guy's question, please jump in. If not, keep it to yourself. See you at the tables.

MC

I don't know anything about standard deviations... but most live players would discuss their win rate in terms of BB/hr not BB/100. A win rate of 10bb/hr or more up to 20bb/hr for the best of players is considered to be crushing the game.

As others have mentioned, moving from limit to no limit likely will not be quick and painless... they two games are vastly different. Just because you are beating one game do not mean you can beat the other. The advice others have given here to play smaller stakes is quite sound. Especially if holding 20k in reserve is going to be a problem for you. If you've only for 4k-5k, you should be playing 1/2. On the the hand, if you are only looking to play recreationally, you can simply stop playing and wait until your funds are replenished.

But yeah... I think the main thing you should take away from this is that if you have only ever played limit before, jumping into the biggest possible NL game you can find because the blind dollar amounts are similar is probably a pretty big mistake. Good luck.

I apologize if my post was too blunt.

But if I could summarize your original post... it would read:

"I want to play high stakes, but I don't have the bankroll do play high stakes, nor do I have much experience playing high stakes. Should I play high stakes?"

I think you know the answer to your question.

The 5/10NL game would be way WAY bigger than your 30/60 game. Your 30/60 limit probably plays about as big as 2/5NL. I don't have much experience, but I think NL plays approximately 10x as big as limit (so 1/2NL and 10/20FL would be about the same).

But since you don't know how to play NL it would make more sense to play 1/2 than 2/5.

Also, just as important, you should track your results. You sound like a recreational player, but a serious one. I am a "serious rec player" myself, and I can tell you that tracking your results will 1) keep up more honest and 2) be satisfying and fun. I use the app "Poker Journal" on my iPhone.

Basically, having a bankroll and tracking your results is ideal. But if you don't have a bankroll, that's fine....but it makes tracking your results even more important, so you can't just "forget" the times you lose every few months while focusing on your wins.

10+bb/hr is totally doable. I do it and I have several buddies who do it

here is the bad news. If I put as much work into becoming a doctor as I have into being a perfessional poker player - I would have been a damn good doctor. THIS IS NO LIE.

expecting to win that much as a part time rec player is not even close to realistic...sorry

If you are going to be playing MDL I'd suggest starting with 2/5. It's 500 cap and relatively soft.

Regarding the 3 questions in your original post

1. $5k is fine as a recreational bankroll. If you do well, that $5k can last anywhere from a few weeks to a few months (assuming you take money out during big scores). However there is very decent chance you could lose it all in 1 to 3 bad sessions.

2. Win rate for a good player is roughly $100/hr

3. I don't know what other players have, but my std dev per hour is $600/hr

Regarding bankroll, the bad news is that 5/10 games are frequently uncapped. I don't know about MD, but there are a lot of guys that play at MD Live here and they could probably tell you what to expect. I know in my home casino, it is not uncommon to see close to 250K on a 5/10 table with most players buying in for 10K minimum. On the other hand, most 2/5 games cap at 500 or 1K, so that would be more in line with your FL amount of 720 at risk in any one hand.

Regarding the games, I also transitioned from FL to NL many, many years ago. As I am sure you know, NL and FL play so different that they might as well be entirely different games. Therefore, as one poster mentions above, starting with 1/2 or 1/3 is not a bad idea. The best way to describe it, IMO, is that FL is a more precise game. Implied odds become much more important in NL, and missing a bet is not always the tragedy it is in FL. I absolutely don't regret switching games back in the day. I think someone that comes from a FL background can do quite well in NL, and has some advantages that someone who has only played NL does not, but many FL habits will have to be unlearned.

Good luck whatever you decide to do!

As someone that made the switch from FLHE to NLHE, the biggest thing you are going to have to learn is to fold! I haven't played a hand of FLHE in probably three years and calling on the river is still my biggest leak.

As far as bankroll considerations, NLHE shouldn't be any different than FLHE was for you. You have a job, so once you have a couple of K have at it. If you didn't keep records for FLHE because you knew you were a winner I would recommend doing it for NLHE until you are sure.

My last recommendation would be to enter NLHE at the $2-5 level. You'll be at the level where the stakes will mean something to you and it will give you a good idea of where you are. Also at the 2-5 level you will find games anywhere from a 100bb cap buy-in up to uncapped in rare areas.

This wins the thread. I won't lock it and ask you to move the discussion to the Bankroll Winrates and Finances thread, since it's been a long time since we had a LHE to NLHE conversion thread, but that pretty much covers the answers to your OP, imo. If you have other (strat) questions about making this jump, let us know.

Wow... where is this going on?!?

I usually play at Horseshoe Southern Indiana. Thy don't run a 5/10 very often, but when they do, it is always big. 1/3 there caps at 500, and 2/5 caps at 1K.

In uncapped games there's still a minimum you can buy in for, so I don't really see how there being $250k on the table is even relevant.

Although I think the live games are going to a lot easier than their online counterparts, learning how to beat $5-$10 is still going to take some time.

Instead of putting hundreds of hours in at $1-$2 like others suggested, I would invest money in some of the training sites and other learning materials on the internet. If I were you, I would start at $2-$5 at first. You want to be able to play at a limit that is fun to you and you have other streams of revenue coming in just in case you get walloped. Also, you're only going to be playing a couple of times per month, so you have a lot of downtime to devote to studying.

Read through the live cash games forums, make friends or join study groups with winning players.

FWIW: 10-15 bbs is realistic for someone who has the time and energy towards being the best poker player they can be. IMO, it isn't very realistic for a recreational player only playing a couple of times a month.

The conversion from FL to NL is closer to 5:1 than 10:1 on an equal variance basis.

It kind of disturbs me that you don't keep track of your wins and losses but are so confident you can win 1 BB/hr in a 30/60 FL game. IIRC that gamr has a half kill too.

But everyone is right, SD/WR ratios can be much lower in NL than FL. Start with 1/2 and if you're not an idiot you'll have enough for 2/5 really quickly.

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Hmm. If you're not even bothering to keep records then I'd question why you think you're even a decent player. Winning 1 bb an hour at 30/60 would mean you are better than just decent at that level. I remember a pro on the limit forums saying he was winning 0.5 bb an hour and was very happy about it.

If you care about winrate then why don't you even bother to keep records? That just baffles me. Is it laziness? Is it ego? Is it a fear of finding out you're not as good as you thought?

The claim of making 1 bb an hour is just a wild guess at best. I'm sure if you talk to a lot of players they will call themselves decent. I'm sure many will overestimate their winrates if they don't even bother to keep records.

The percentage of live poker players who make $50 an hour or more is very low. Even out of the players who think they are decent, it's very low.