Game: 1-2 NLHE live game currently played 9 handed
Description- game is mostly passive but very very loose. Big pots left and right


V1 UTG+1 (covers table) old guy has 1K plus stack in racks about to leave he won a massive pot with 95o flopping two pair against an OESD and an overpair
V2 UTG+2 ($252) MAWG hasn’t done too much tight for past 2 hours
V3 CO($300) - mid 20’s white guy TAG on a downswing (had KK in the above hand)
V4 Dealer ($300)- OWG solid but mostly value town ABC
V5 SB ($950)- old station who is on a heater, will call off on a paired board with 88
Hero ($378) late 20’s white guy TAG mostly cold deck for past hour, early on raised and won 3 hands in a row AKo, AQs so table views us and tight since we have gone cold

Preflop: utg folds, V1 limps, V2 limps, folds to CO who makes it $10, V4 and V5 both call

To hero A6- we pause think about squeezing then realize this deep no chance in hell we get heads up with this table dynamic so we call, V1 and V2 complete

OTF $60

7 4 3

SB checks, hero X hoping for a check raise. Looking back I probably should lead strong here like 35-40 but I was hoping to get aggressive and put over pairs or strong over holdings to a spot with a XR. Rethinking I feel this is always a bet here.
V1-X
V2- bets $40
V3-5 all fold

Heroes thoughts- villain's limping range is mostly comprised of straight draws, sets, two pair. This villain does not bluff here

Hero?

Call

Ok, Thought I might get a few thoughts before the next action...

Anyway: hero decides to call since this is first time a substantial sizing was ever placed by this villain. He usually would just make weird feeler 15 bets in this spot

V1- reraises to 140
V2- All in for remaining 202

Hero- it is now 202 to call and we would have 138 left, we know we are up against two capped ranges of at minimum sets, top two, praying someone overplayed AA or KK... While we figure out how many outs we may have, V1 out of turn asks how much more and gave away his strong tell from the earlier 95o hand where he flopped two pair…. Leans back in chair and puts hands on his head after asking how much more.

Hero now realizes this is now not a call for V2 but this is always going three way all in.

Can we jam here getting $338 in being 100% positive all stacks are going in and all flush and 5's are still live?

assuming your read is good that V1 calls, it's just a math problem

pot is 482+328 jam + 328 call = 1138

328/1138 = 28.8% equity needed

against 2 straights we have 36% equity. against a straight and a set we have 28% equity. set and set/2P is only going to be better because they block their outs if we hit

vs the range of both having 2P+, we're have 34% equity, so jamming would be +EV, assuming V1 calls 100% of the time

Deleted this post so more can reply sorry I usually comment and don't post as often

You should give people a little more time to reply -- usually a day before results.

Call on flop is fine; I raise sometimes, too.

Shove now. I'm fine gii here, but I like to gamble with these types of hands, especially for that type of pot.

Board: 743
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****59.76%**59.43%***0.33%*{ 77 }
UTG+1***4.87%***4.54%***0.33%*{ 44 }
UTG+2**35.36%**35.03%***0.33%*{ Ac6c }

you were a little high with equity, but not by much, especially not for "at table calcs."

Re-pop him big preflop. The callers are all like limpers, they are all suckesr that want to see if they hit something on the flop. When they call $10 with $300 effective that's a limp in my book. Re-pop the hell out of the entire table and send them all to me at "The V"
... haha!

OK,
OTF, swing all day long without fear. You are drawing to a monster hand,
NFD+GS+1over = 15 outs twice from flop to river. I would shove if I would be there but I would have made the pot bigger preflop. A6s is OK, I prefer A5s. The goddamned A6o goes in the muck and I take two dark cards from the muck that other suckers didn't want. But in this situation we don't have a muck yet because all the dudes limped for the miniature $10 preflop. I don't understand why people play the way they do. Calling $10 preflop to see 3 cards .. Is that stupid ..., or what? - 3 cards for $10 US dollars .., wtf is going on? - $3 per each card .., haha!...haha! ...Re-pop them like $33 per each flop card.

Didn't do any math but it's going in

This for me too. I'm usually not one to essentially call off my stack with a draw when I don't have much money invested, but this is definitely the type of situation that I will do just that. With a hand like this, I think we're much better off in a MW AI pot than a heads up pot, since we're obviously getting much better odds to draw. I wouldn't expect all of our outs to be clean, but we do at least have the nut-draw. I'm ripping it in and hoping to bink, and just reminding myself that the variance is massive here.

We did swing for the fences and my actual equity calculation on table was assuming i had 9 or 10 outs I was roughly between 36 to 40% equity so I was near dead on the spot at table.

I am amidst trying to keep my pure discipline and find what a reasonable hourly rate is with just pure grinding, making standard plays, and putting pressure on weaker players. I wanted to do this avoiding high variance spots (yes I know that is what poker is at the end of the day). I have read and had a large enough sample for my win rate to be confident in it, and to be honest i wanted to keep it where it was. That being said my final thought was "we avoid high variance, but when presented with the right situation, I still must play correct poker. I enjoy making correct decisions and will be happier as long as the math works out when i post this on the forums. Stop being results oriented."

We count out our chips.... jam... V1 jams

brick brick... whiff

Set of 77 for V1
Set of 44 for V2
A high for hero

Thanks for all of the input guys, this made me very happy.

You put 378 dollars in the pot to win on average 22 bucks (minus rake and tip ). That huge profit only came because you were lucky enough they held each other's outs. It's not really a spot to look back with fond memories.

If you were at the table and read the multiple in depth notes that were listed on the table dynamic and situation with tells involved... This was not "luck" that they had set over set... I was beyond sure (in poker terms my 95% confidence interval was met) I was against either set v set... or set v two pair

And no I wasn't happy in the smiles and butterflies sense... I was happy in the, hey I made the right choice no matter what. While I try to avoid these high variance spots, no player can get truly better if they always fold these spots. I, unlike most in these forums, do not play poker for money. I make more than enough at my day job. I play to be correct always and grind up money on the side. Heck, I don't even spend it on anything. I just want it so I can be able to play higher stakes someday when I go on trips to Vegas, AC, Parx, Hard Rock in Miami.

While I can do it with my mediocre hourly win rate... I do know that getting it in for a big win does need to happen (when the odds correctly dictate it) to maybe skip a stair or two on the stairway to mid/high stakes shots occasionally.