Not sure what my calling range should look like on the river here, especially since I’m going to be 3 betting a good amount of AJs pre.

T/T $10 BB ante.

V1 HJ (covers). From what I have seen, V is a very good pro. He plays between tag and lag both preflop and post flop. He is somewhat aggressive post without being spewy. Has no problem ripping 3k+ as a bluff, he’s used to playing deep in big games.

V2 BB (covers) probably a typical loose passive rec.

H CO ($1800). Have played with V a few times but still a small sample. He knows I’m a pro.

I don’t remember SB or BU as being good or aggressive.

V1 opens $40, I flat KJdd, V2 calls. I’m playing a lot of my CO range vs him as a 3 bet or fold, this is just one of my flats.

Flop: KsQc8s.

Pot: $130.

X, V1 $75, I call, V2 folds.

Pot: $280.

Turn Th.

V $225, I call.

River: 2d

Pot: $730.

V shoves for roughly $1400 H?

Yeah pf this spot I'm only 3 betting and this hand is in that range.

I think I'm only calling sets plus here.

Ditch the snowie ranges. You can do much better than that. Monker never has a CO flatting range vs an HJ open.

The problem with preflop is you are capped on these board textures and if Villain is as good as you are claiming - he will know this too. He can then exploit you by using overbets on run outs like these.

I'd call and expect to win a lot.

You don't many sets here that's the problem. And if OP is using snowie ranges he almost never has AJs and positively never has J9s. Add in to the fact that OP will raise some AJs OTT and we are at a huge disadvantage in terms of range strength on this run out.

Villain expects a lot over-folding here that is one of the reasons why he is overbetting - he has correctly identified OP's range gap based on OP's sub optimal pre flop play.

We can exploit his exploit and over call now. KJs not only blocks J9s/AJs but unblocks Axs hands that may play this way.

We are clearly bluff catching but this is a pretty clear call OTR if Villain is a great player.

Where do you see a sub optimal pre flop play from OP?

Also, what do you mean with "snowie range"?

Snowie is a poker AI program.

Yeah I guess my problem is that I get to the river this way with none of my hands. So I can only look at the river. But yeah even you I guess wouldn't have that many hands, but that doesn't mean you have to call. I just don't see people doing this very often live w/o AJ here. But if he's a very good player then I can see the argument for it.

regarding the whole "what snowie or monker" says to do - i presume (OP correct if wrong) a good reason to flat KJdd rather than 3bet is to incentivise calls from the weaker players in the SB/BB? This surely is a more +EV play than 3betting to isolate V1 who is a known pro. Software obviously wouldnt take into account this consideration. if V1 is aware of who lays ahead of Hero this is part of his hand reading analysis?

But yeah i agree with a lot of whats being said but not necessarily from the starting point that Hero's pre flop play is sub optimal - seems fine to me.

Very difficult for us to have sets here and V knows this if he’s a good pro.
This is one of our best combos to hero down with here outside of sets, probably a top 2-3 one pair combo. Flip a coin or close your eyes and call imo.

I don't hate pre, but I prefer a 3 bet, even with the given dynamics.

This is no question an MDF call, and I would call, too, given this is one of our better hands and villain is polarized .

I just have no flatting range preflop in position against a good pro at higher stakes. (Even 2/5). But I’m a rec and OP is pro so perhaps there are metagame reasons for this line. But overall I just think it gets us in deep DooDoo. So here we are.

AP we get 3-2 on this call but I’m having trouble finding enough bluffs. There are 3 JJ and 1 AsQs, 1 Asts and 1 JsTs that might take this line. Against this he has 6 Aa, 8 AK, 2 AJs and lots of sets and some Kqs too. We need to give him lots more of Asxs combos to call here. I can’t find them from the bottom of our range here.

I tip my cap to Badreg if he could pull this hero call out of his butt. I couldn’t.

Unfortunately no results here because I folded.

Did you study this spot with a solver afterward?
It probably prefers folding 65-70%? (I’m guessing)

How did snowie and monkey become part of this thread ? Is it normal to assume that pros at higher stakes are doing it even for live play ?

It said fold using the ranges I used but my preflop ranges aren’t GTO.

Is Monker worth the extra money over Snowie?

inb4Vjusthasastraightandisn'tdoinganycoolGTOstuff

How is this not an MDF call? Correct me if I'm wrong, but we call with our top 40% hands here?

Where are you getting 40%? If you're referencing MDF for your decision it should be around 33%.

Is it wrong to sometimes flat 4/16 combos of AK here?
Then you protect your flatting range 2k effective for situations like this. And can close your eyes and call down. Especially if your flatting a number of hands like KJss too.
Basically to protect your flatting range to combat people who overbet turns and rivers a lot. Maybe throw in one combo of AA too?

I was taught that it's pot = 1, bet = 2, we call 2 to win 5, so 2/5 = .4 ---> we defend 40% of our range.

What is the math for 33%? I believe you, I was just taught wrong, and it's never really used, that's why I'm not fresh

Go Blue. Is this who I think it is?

yeah that's wrong. It's pot/Pot + bet=0.xx which is the percentage.

So here we have 730/730+1400 = 0.3427

So MDF is 34.27%

I mean just thinking about it 40% is a lot to be defending vs a 2x pot bet. Unless the range and villain is super bluff heavy that will be losing quite often live.

Well thank you for clearing that up. I know you get this a lot, but you're an amazing person .

I'm still shocked that this isn't an MDF call.

Grunch. Should know better than us. Definitely a tough spot. Flip a coin or look at your watch and see if the second hand is on 1 thru 30 or 30 thru 60 and then shove or fold.

My bad. Nobody wears watches anymore.

You're thinking of the optimal bluff:value ratio OTR.

If we cbet 2x pot we get 40% bluffs and 60% value OTR instead of 1/3 bluff:2/3 value with a typical PSB bet.

Spyutastic nailed it with MDF.