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Is this stupid??? Is this stupid???

09-29-2015 , 11:58 AM
Hero has not raised a single hand yet in 30 mins (table just opened). One guy is on his 3rd buy in and has 50$ in his stack and has been raising everything . He opens to 10 when it folds aroud to him as everyone foods it's up to me with A5 I 3 bet to 35 he ships. This is what I expected to happen.
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09-29-2015 , 12:09 PM
If he's truly raising every hand, you're most likely ahead of his range. If he only has $50 in front of him, don't 3-bet to $35, just ship it and put him all-in. Sorry he woke up with a better hand (or hit his live cards and won the hand).
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09-29-2015 , 12:28 PM
Yeah. Not really the hand I'm looking to iso him with. Do you play tourneys? Seems like a tourney move.
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09-29-2015 , 12:47 PM
it depends
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09-29-2015 , 12:55 PM
Call.

But what do you expect when he raises every hand, buys in for $50. He is just flipping a coin pre. Before you 3!, ask yourself do you want to flip 50/50 (not talking equity math just 50/50) with A5 for $50. If the answer is yes, the 3! if not, just fold pre.

Also the fact you haven't raised one hand yet doesn't mean anything to V.
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09-29-2015 , 12:56 PM
Wait for a better hand. If he is opening every hand and is on his 3rd buy in in 30 minutes he is a maniac. You are ahead of his range but he only folds the total garbage to your 3 bet and A5o is not far ahead even if villain calls with ATC.
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09-29-2015 , 01:05 PM
EZ call if hes opening 100% and continunig 100%
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09-29-2015 , 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadJ
A5o is not far ahead even if villain calls with ATC.
??? 58% isn't far enough ahead of ATC for you?
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09-29-2015 , 01:26 PM
^ This.

If he opens 80% of hands, we shove and he calls 100%, we are 56.2% to win. So we net ~$3.95 (after rake and tip ugh).

If he opens 70% we are are 55.2% to win, for $2.25.

If he opens 70% but folds the bottom 20% of his hands (because lol at calling it off with things like 95o, 85o, whatever) then .2*10 + .519 * $95 = $1.30.

It isn't until around the top 35% of hands of him calling it off with that we start to show a reasonable equity disadvantage. But even at that point if he is opening 70% of hands, and calling it off with 35% of hands we still profit $45.98 from our equity when called, and $5 from him folding pre flop, we still make a profit of 98cents. Still 2% overall. I'm ok with that.
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09-29-2015 , 01:37 PM
+EV is +EV
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09-29-2015 , 01:51 PM
just go all in
it's fine, although after rake and tip it's pretty much breakeven
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09-29-2015 , 03:17 PM
35$ isnpracticaly all in he's always shipping never just calling here. I thought my Ace high was ahea of him. He had QJo and flopped a straight lol
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09-29-2015 , 03:32 PM
^ If you don't mind the variance then go for it. I post a lot of hands where people say "wtf are you doing" that usually end up being like 10-20 BB's +EV but risking 100 BB's at a time. Higher variance but they should trend in your favor over the long term.
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09-29-2015 , 05:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
+EV is +EV
+1 and +1 to the other comment
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09-29-2015 , 05:41 PM
Need positions or info that players behind us are folding.
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09-29-2015 , 05:44 PM
Youre way ahead.

His 10$ open is now the new big blind, you have the nuts w/ ace high
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09-29-2015 , 07:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
??? 58% isn't far enough ahead of ATC for you?
If villain is raising 100% of hands and always moving all in, then sure. It will clearly be +EV, even if smaller then you would expect. With a small stack at 1/2 the rake and tip are going to cut into your profit fast. At a 100% range the EV will be around 5BB and you are probably losing 3BB to rake and tip. My indirect point was that even most maniacs are not playing 100% of hands all in. You don't have to move his range very far off 100% before this isn't profitable. Even if he is playing 70% of hands and always moving in it's probably just break even.
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09-29-2015 , 10:44 PM
i agree with QuadJ that we should be looking for better spots than A5o, id rather a) see flops or b) get it in with better holdings pre. not significantly better holdings but a bit better. maybe ATo+ / KQs+ / 55+
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09-30-2015 , 04:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by br3nt00
i agree with QuadJ that we should be looking for better spots than A5o, id rather a) see flops or b) get it in with better holdings pre. not significantly better holdings but a bit better. maybe ATo+ / KQs+ / 55+

Okay......

Why?

If this guy is reloading and trying his hardest to GII every hand he's going to go bust soon.

So we need to maximise against this guy and GII with him no matter how small the edge is because if we don't SOMEONE ELSE will take his money!

We just don't have the luxury of waiting for a "better spot" (does one even exist? I mean cmon free money here!)

Last edited by de4df1sh; 09-30-2015 at 04:26 AM.
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09-30-2015 , 05:12 AM
i agree with shoving here as it is +EV against V. also waiting for another spot might not happen i mean, he doesnt have an infinite amount of BI's.
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09-30-2015 , 08:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh
Okay......

Why?
Because we don't know how many hands this guy is playing, only that he is playing too many (or is terribly unlucky). As I pointed out above, if he is playing 100% of hands then this is +EV but even if you lower his range to a still maniac 70% then A5o is probably no longer +EV because the rake will take your thin profit margin. The exact break even point will depend on the rake structure for the game. The position of villain and hero also matter and are not specified in the original post. If hero is not button or in a blind then the risk of action after will reduce the EV also.

Finally, just because somebody else beat the maniac doesn't mean the money automatically leaves the table. You are free to win it later from who ever won the coin flip with the maniac.
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09-30-2015 , 08:48 AM
I already showed the math behind him opening 70% and him calling it off with a few different ranges of that opening range.

And that was inclusive of rake. I calculated everything on a $95 pot so that is $7 in rake that I we are paying which is about the most that you should ever be paying in rake + tip.
It was still profitable by a 25+ margin depending on how often he folds/shoves.
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09-30-2015 , 10:04 AM
Maniacs like this are kind of like calling stations, they are in with too many hands and gotta do something with them. They are both trying to get lucky, it's just that the calling stations are looking to get lucky, and the maniacs are trying to make their own luck. Otherwise they are kind of similar. Your task is to show up with equity and play it the right way, where against your average calling station the task is to bet, and against this guy, the task is to call. See I don't know that I would be eager to go up against a bunch of calling stations with Axo, I mean, they aren't going to fold. You can charge draws I guess, hope to spike a pair with SDV at some point, but dang you're cutting it kind of thin. Same thing against this guy, you can call his bluffs and semi-bluffs with ace high, and hopefully show up with enough SDV at the end, but why cut it that thin? Either way, if you think either one of these guys is going to fold out their trash, think again. That might be what you would do, not them.
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