Hi all! first post, pls b gentle

MGM national harbor. 1/3 on a tuesday, 9 pm. great action as usual. can always count on mgm.

request table change to new table, bring my $550 stack from old table. I am a 22 y/o asian male, very talkative.

Preface the hand I want to analyze by saying i was going on an absolute tear in the 20 or so hands before, and winning most without showdown:

2nd hand at the table, i have AKhh, open to 20 pre, one caller, button 3b to 125, i ship all 550 of my precious little dollars in there and get snapped by QQ. board AA9 brick brick, get slightly less than full double up. All players unknowns at this point, of course.

hands 3-20, I had:
AKo: opened to 20, 2 callers, cbet 557 board, take it down
AJs: open to 25, 1 caller, TT7 board, cbet, villain check raises, i fold
JJ (twice): opens to 25 each, flop top set on a rainbow board, no flush draw both times (lmao), one was 5 way, flop cbet takes down, another was HU, check flop, he checks back, turn cbet takes down
TT (twice): opens to 22 and 25, c/f AJ5 board vs 2 opponents, flop & turn cbet takes it down vs 2 opponents
ATs: open to 20 from late pos, 2 callers, cbet takes it down

Note that EVERY one of these pots was taken down without showdown, so the only thing the table has seen is AKhh on my 2nd hand. At this point I have around 1300 and the table is making open comments about my bet frequency. A guy across the table says "hey man, how long until you lose it all, huh?" after one of my opens to 25. He is immediately shushed by the guy sitting next to him. Another guy on his other side actually physically nudges him. Great position to be in - I know I should be adjusting to be much more value heavy at this point, and making my bets and raises larger when i am betting for value. Side note: how else should I adjust?

now, onto the hand:

I am about 1 hour into the session. Look down at 9Thh from middle position, facing one limp from v2, make it 25. I had been progressively increasing my raise sizes as I felt the table was starting to doubt my holdings. Get called by v1 from sb, v3 bb, v2 utg, v4 after me. (sorry the v's are not in order)

v1 has limp folded twice, and went all in preflopand took it down and showed JJ in the hour. no other action. has not shown any cards besides that. is very short, exactly 75 behind after call. My guess is that this players flat range for 30 is going to be pretty narrow, maybe 15% of hands? v1 is a quiet asian man, maybe 25.

v2 is a plays 100% of hands, never raise preflop total fish. has exactly 350 behind, 3 $100 chips and two $25 chips. I had seen v2 do the following: call one of my $25 opens with 84o, T3o. Obviously everything is in his range when he calls here. This villain also has done things like call an open ender for a pot sized all in on the flop, clearly not strong post flop either. v2 lovess to chase, and has been showing a couple missed draws here and there. i dont think this player slow plays, as he has never check raised, or called first to raise later. very much a get all the value on one street kind of player. often bets nice round numbers like $100 into a pot of 37 on the turn, no showdown here though. v2 is somehow only down 1 buy in within the hour that I've watched. v2 folds to bets sometimes if v2 has literally nothing, i presume. i think that v2 has folded to roughly 40% of bets to him, so v2 finds some folds. perhaps has some bluffs, won about half his pots with no showdown, so not sure of the bluffs in his capability. v2 also donk led K3o into two people on a K Q T rainbow flop. Oh I love MGM national harbor.

v3 is a tight old black man that only limps in when he does. only got to showdown once, showed KQ. villain has approximately 600

v4 is a younger looking hispanic guy, could have some ability, but again hard to tell in such a short time. Has only played two hands in the hour, raised them both pre, won both without showdown. villain has approximately 600

Flop:

6h 8s Qc
pot: ~125. i forget rake structure

flop: checks to me. decide to check, clearly 0 fold equity at this point.

turn 7s. have the nuts now, hand is going like how the session is going. sb open jams 75. bb calls. utg calls. I make it 160. v4 folds. just v3 calls from bb.

river: Ac. still have the nuts. checks to me. bet 185. v3 folds.

thoughts:

merit to slow playing on the turn? so far, I had done almost no calling at the table, I had only been betting. perhaps I could rep missed spades? perhaps I could get v2 to put in some more money later.

also, sizing on turn and river? i put v3 squarely on a Q, and often times a very good one, KQ and AQ are the more likely holdings, in retrospect i like a larger turn raise, maybe 200. is there merit to trying to keep ultra fish v2 in? i presume the tighter v4 will fold. by the time we get to the river, should I just assume that whatever calls a turn reraise will be able to call a huge bet river? how elastic are the call ranges for your typical tight 1/3 against a player with my image? how should I have extracted the most here?

Sadly your splashy image doesnt matter with the shortstack in the pot, i mean even if they think you suck, i doubt they think youre bluffing in a protected pot. I wouldve raised mor OTT, pot was 425 and you bet 85 into it, which is wayyy too small, even for a small bet thats too small. I wouldve gone ~300 total.

Raise way bigger ott.

Not a fan of the preflop raise since we have zero FE with our image and this hand could have high RIO with many good hands we make. We also get in far too much of our stack against the shortstacks with just T high, and will also create a very low SPR pot due to going very multiway (which should be expected) whereas this hand would rather have a high SPR. Plus we're just in MP and could be 3bet, plus will likely be OOP postflop. Kinda looks like the type of raise people make when they've encountered a rush / good stretch and think they can't do anything wrong.

With only one player to act after us and a well disguised double gutter (so decent equity), plus a table that seems to be folding a decent amount to cbets, I wouldn't hate a cbet. We set our own price and might be able to buy ourselves a free river card. I don't hate a check.

With our image I might lean to jamming the turn. There's a bunch of people interested in the pot and we're obviously crazy. If our goal was to give the first of two people awesome 6:1 odds to chase hands that can crush us in a big pot (flush draw has a trivially profitable call here), mission accomplished with this minraise size.

A bigger turn raise also leaves us in a better spot for the river to get in the rest of stacks. Even as played the pot is about $600 and I believe he only has $415 left, so only a 2/3 PSB shove is required, but $415 is such a huge bet in terms of $$$ at 1/3 NL; a bigger turn raise makes this a lot more trivial. But even as played I shove and hope my image gets this guy to finally take a stand.

GIdon'thatetheflopcheckG

I don't always agree with GG, but when he is right, he is right! With the table and Hero's image as described, raising 9Ts from MP is clearly a losing play. I mean, look what happens. We get one of the best flops for our hand, and we can't even bet it. That generally indicates that we made a mistake earlier in the hand, and since this is the flop, it's pretty easy to point the finger at where our mistake was.

I'm not a huge fan of making big adjustments based on how I'm running, so if T9s is normally a raise here, I would probably still do it. If the table has really adjusted then maybe, but I find I get myself into more trouble when I try to change gears based on how I think the table is reacting, rather than just staying in my lane. Especially preflop.

On the flop, this is where I might slow down based on my image. With a solid image or fewer callers, I'd probably bet, but right now I would check. It's worth considering the aggressiveness of the players behind you to decide if you would be better off setting your price.

The turn should be a bit larger. I'd go around $200-$225. I figure it's about the max that will get called here.

The river should be an all-in. You got here with the nuts and have a garbage image and could be up against a strong hand given how this hand has played out so far.

Welcome to the forum, OP. Please don't give results next time, as it tends to bias people's responses. Other than that, great first post.

I'm with GG on this one. even with very deep stacks, given our image, this is probably a good one to overlimp. And as everyone said, bigger OTT, please

Game sounds amazing.