I have an effective stack of $430 lots of regs at the table.
Hero; QhQs UTG i make it $30.
Villian; middle pos calls $30
Flop comes out 5h9s8d
Hero bets $30
I think it is not a great flop for me since he is a reg that i have history with. His range is gonna be any pair and will flat with an over pair and AK.
villian raises to $70
This could be a probing raise or value raise with a set. i elect to just flat and see what he does on the turn.
Turn Ac
I dont think this is a bad card. actually a good card. He is not raising with just AK on the flop to much of a knit. And cancels out AA from his range.
On the flop, I wouldve bet bigger, like at least $45.
As played, I could see a case for both calling and folding depending on villains tendencies. You mention you have history with villain. Would he ever raise TJ here, a pair+gutshot, or even 9x? If he's very straightforward, I think a fold is fine. If he's aggressive, calling is fine.
Lastly, as played, I think your fold on the turn is good. From his perspective, you couldve definitely hit the Ace, so his turn bet is saying he can beat the Ace.
It'd be great to have more reads on the villain since you have history with them. Since our only reads is that he's probably a reg and that is range is AK and pairs, I would:
a) Bet more on the flop, as Aves notes. $40 minimum, $45-$50 is better.
b) Fold to a raise on the flop without better reads. It's a super-coordinated board and if, indeed, he only has pocket pairs, it's sort of a leveling war at this point -- he has a set or he doesn't. I'd rather find a better spot, especially given that we're out of position the rest of the way.
c) As played, folding to the turn bet.
Last edited by JPeezy55; 04-29-2013 at 10:49 PM.
Reason: Clarified a street
Your history with villain needs explanation. If he is the type that rarely runs multi-street semi-bluffs then calling the flop raise is a waste of $$. You simply will not improve often enough and you know villain is going to follow through and get the stacks in the middle.
If villain bluffs at smaller pots but does not follow through on the turn and river then you have a tougher decision.