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The Station Just Bet Out (How Strong Do I Have to Be?) The Station Just Bet Out (How Strong Do I Have to Be?)

05-20-2014 , 05:43 PM
1/2 NL...charlestown.

Villain: Station 101. Not a thoughtful player. Plays about 75% of his hands PF. NEVER RAISES...WITH ANYTHING. Limps with ACES, limps with Jacks...saw both happen. Additionally, his "Calling a Raise PF Range" is the same thing. He will call $15 PF raise with Q3off and with Aces.

One other important note is that I did not see this villain ever bet out or raise unless he had a made hand.

My stack: $180
Villain covers.

Table info: there are no overly aggressive players at table and many pots were going un-raised PF.

Hand: 1 limper...Villain also limps...I have Q7 on the BTN...I limp (I don't typically play this hand, but i thought I'd mix it up a bit and I felt like if I got into a whose kicker is bigger battle, id be able to keep the pot small and mitigate any serious damage)...SB calls...BB checks...

FLOP: $10 POT... Q...7...6c... Checks around to Villain who bets $15. I raise to $50. Everyone folds...V calls.

Turn: $110 POT...K... Villain Checks...(I have $133 left)...WHAT DO I DO?

Id certainly love critiques on my line here. Additionally though, id like to give my thought process in hopes that better players would let me know if I was on the right track here or if I missed something and played it poorly.

My thought process:

Pre flop-- as I mentioned, I wanted to mix it up a bit and this would be about the bottom of the barrel of hands I would do that with, but I do move into LAG-ish play sometimes depending on the table dynamics.

Flop: I figured, based on history with him that he will do this 2 pair or better. He would not semi-bluff. He either has 2 pair or a set. I could see him Q6, Q7, 67 (my most likely thought), and any set (less likely). His bet was confusing to me. I also thought there was a very good chance I was ahead and wanted to get value here as I have never seen this villain fold once he has his hand. I also figured if any of the other players flat me here...I am beat and can get out of the hand.

Turn: Now I am confused. If I bet here it has to be substantial right? If I think I am winning I need to bet and with the size of my stack I am committed here if I bet. And if I check he will probably bet river and I lose any fold equity I might have had (albeit small as he probably is not folding most of the time...but I figure 15% of the time he folds). So I figured Id just shove here hoping he calls and has 2 pair lower than mine.

Thanx much for the feedback...this is one of those hands that I can't tell if I am plaing bad or good or what; and thus is one of those opportunities for me to learn I feel.

Wager9
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05-20-2014 , 05:50 PM
He could be open ended with a flush draw, calling all the way. If he flopped set there's no way of knowing and no way I could fold top two flop pair with that type of player and your stack size.
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05-20-2014 , 05:59 PM
I'd check. The hands we beat aren't calling a shove (AQ, QJ, etc.)

B/f seems bad with our stack size.
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05-20-2014 , 06:44 PM
I checked stove, you are 63% against his assigned range(all flopped sets and 2 pairs). Is your read he will never fold any of those hands at any point? If so then your only goal at that point is to get the money in the middle. Flop raise was good. Now bet half on the turn and half on the river. Best to milk stations slowly. Also according to stove the only river card you should never bet is a 6. Betting a K is iffy it can get him to fold 67, so maybe check that back too.
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05-20-2014 , 06:52 PM
Do we really think this villain never bets a hand like AQ on the flop? And never calls off on turn with one pair? Most fish who play three quarters of their hands preflop are not releasing TPTK for under 100bb ever. I agree that 2p+ has to be a big part of his range here but I have a hard time believing that's all he can have. I'm betting enough on turn to overcharge a draw (just in case) and shoving most rivers.
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05-20-2014 , 07:13 PM
Fold pf. Q7s is going to make a lot of second best hands. There's no prize in poker for having the second best hand.

The time to decide whether you are going to play this small or big is on the flop. You raised, so you're going to play this big. Based on your reads, I'd bet about $80 on the turn and shove the river. You're not escaping this hand after you raised. If you were looking for a way to fold, you should have called on the flop.

And FWIW, limping on the button with a garbage hand isn't LAG play. The "AG" stands for "aggressive." Limping is not aggressive.
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05-20-2014 , 07:20 PM
Limping sooted trash otb is just bad. Now your way over-betting trying to get $$ in, and likely will only get action from betters.

After V1 bet/calls your 3! otf, Im likely checking behind the turn and hoping for a cheap showdown, as I can think of little he does this with that we beat.
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05-20-2014 , 07:32 PM
Fold PF >>> Raise PF >>> Do what you did

As played - bet 75
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05-20-2014 , 07:35 PM
Fold pre really? Vs. the villain described I'm looking to play as many pots as possible with anything that remotely looks playable. Q7s is about the bottom of that range, but I think it's fine.

Raising for isolation would've been fine too. But the stacks aren't quite big enough and the hand not quite strong enough for me to want to bloat the pot. If you hit big you'll be able to get the money in over 3 streets with a bet/bet/shove line, so I think limping is fine.
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05-20-2014 , 09:52 PM
What doesn't make sense is your thinking on the flop. You either think he does this with two pair or better in which case, you just call or fold, or you think he does it with top pair as well -and you think you re ahead of his range- in which case you raise with the intention to play for stacks.

You cannot have it both ways and do fuzzy thinking.
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05-20-2014 , 10:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OvertlySexual
What doesn't make sense is your thinking on the flop. You either think he does this with two pair or better in which case, you just call or fold, or you think he does it with top pair as well -and you think you re ahead of his range- in which case you raise with the intention to play for stacks.

You cannot have it both ways and do fuzzy thinking.
We are ahead of a range of all two pairs and sets...
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05-20-2014 , 10:36 PM
Even if V only does this otf with 2 pair or sets, we're still well ahead of his range. There are 12 weaker 2 pair combos and 5 set combos. Against a guy whose range includes all combos of Q6 and 76, raising the flop here is an absolute no-brainer.
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05-21-2014 , 03:19 AM
Thanx for the thoughts everyone!

This type of villain is my bane! It seems like they always get me, regardless of how I play. Here is what he turned over...

Spoiler:
66 for the SET...AND MY STACK ROCK!
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05-21-2014 , 03:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
Fold pre really? Vs. the villain described I'm looking to play as many pots as possible with anything that remotely looks playable. Q7s is about the bottom of that range, but I think it's fine.

Raising for isolation would've been fine too. But the stacks aren't quite big enough and the hand not quite strong enough for me to want to bloat the pot. If you hit big you'll be able to get the money in over 3 streets with a bet/bet/shove line, so I think limping is fine.
Wholly kow, why would you want to iso? That's almost as bad as limping on the button. That smelly, dog-poop hand desperately needs implied odds to hope to play profitably, and you'll blow it with a crazy iso raise.

Op, you only told us half of "the rest of the story". River card, please.
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05-21-2014 , 04:26 AM
Raise pre to iso. Villain plays 75% of hands (that's also his calling range, right OP?). Q7s is definitely strong enough to iso this guy and play a pot in position.

Just ship turn imo. Villain has 12 worse 2-pair and 5 sets. But I don't think he calls flop or checks turn with QQ. He could also easily have top pair. So you're AT LEAST a 3:1 favorite. I like the turn ship because there are many bad rivers (clubs, straightening cards, K, A), and I think he snaps you off so wide with hands you're beating on the turn.

Gonna look at spoiler now...
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05-21-2014 , 04:26 AM
I see.
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05-21-2014 , 04:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bulls_horn
Wholly kow, why would you want to iso? That's almost as bad as limping on the button. That smelly, dog-poop hand desperately needs implied odds to hope to play profitably, and you'll blow it with a crazy iso raise.

Op, you only told us half of "the rest of the story". River card, please.
Honestly, when I went all in on turn and he snapped I showed him my cards and were kinda chummy (although he spoke no english) so he and I had a laugh (at my expense)...the river was benign...like 2 I think.
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05-21-2014 , 04:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
Raise pre to iso. Villain plays 75% of hands (that's also his calling range, right OP?).
Yeah.
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05-21-2014 , 04:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
I checked stove, you are 63% against his assigned range(all flopped sets and 2 pairs).
Question about stove/ equilabbing... let's say I define this as his range, but I think certainly possibilities are more likely - like let's say yeah AQ is a possibility but not nearly as high as 2p+ --- is there a way to tell equilab this?
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05-21-2014 , 11:56 AM
I don't know about equilab, but stove can definitely do that. Just click on the relevant hand (say AQo), and then unselect some of the combos in the 4x4 grid on the right.
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05-23-2014 , 11:35 PM
Why would you want fold equity with such a well disguised hand? You should be betting for value.

Bet a little bit under the pot on the turn and gii on the river.
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05-24-2014 , 12:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by owlberteinstein
Why would you want fold equity with such a well disguised hand? You should be betting for value.

Bet a little bit under the pot on the turn and gii on the river.
Hero over-bets (by this I mean bets more than already in the pot) flop. Villain over-raises (again, more than the pot). What is he raising with? We HOPE he's doing this with AQ, but that's unlikely, as AQ probably just calls our over-bet or raises smaller. Top two is near the top of our range, yet he's blowing us up. We're better off just taking the free river.
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