Playing 1/2 earlier tonight at Harrah's Chester. Villain in hand is an older regular. a little less nitty than most old regs, rarely raises but will take stabs at pots every now and then. Doesn't fold enough preflop. His stack is about $200

Hero is in early 20s, sitting with a stack of about $600 after big hand early in session where I had nut flush vs lower flush and two pair.

Hero is dealt KJ in the Cutoff

Three limpers, Hero calls on the button, Button and SB folds, villain checks his option from the BB,

Flop ($11) J104

Checks around, I bet $10, Villain calls and UTG calls.

Turn ($41)

2

Two more checks, Hero fires $30, villain calls and one fold.


River ($101)

5

Villain leads out for $75, Hero folds.




I could have raised it up pre, but anything besides massive raises seems to tag all the limpers along in this game. I also could have folded, but opponents were playing face up post flop in this game so I liked my chances with a mediocre hand getting in for cheap. Villain firing into me on the river through me off, I was going to check it back if he didn't lead. After I folded he showed me his hand.


Is this a standard spot to fold? Would you have raised pre here given tabel conditions? Anything wrong with my bet sizing or action on flop and turn? All criticism welcome.

Folding river seems standard given reads. Sizing is appropriate, but you can avoid this spot by raising/folding pre instead of flatting.

Had you opened to $10, c-bet $20-35 and led turn for $45-70 I think v folds by the turn if not on the flop. Taking this line charges draws and may get a fold from stronger jacks or bottom 2 pair.

If you prefer playing a more passive fit/fold strategy with these types of marginal hands then you played the hand ok. You need to accept that you are allowing villains to draw cheaply with (what they perceive to be) good implied odds and are allowing more intelligent villains to float several streets. Being more aggressive pre helps to avoid those pitfalls.

I'd call the river.

I definitely prefer a raise pre. It'll usually get you absolute position (getting the BTN to fold) and possibly take it down or get you heads up, etc. - good things can happen. Calling can't be that bad though. Meh folding with an unsuited trouble hand isn't atrocious. Pre-flop doesn't really excite me all that much one way or another.

Flop and turn value bets and sizing look great. You're betting the right streets for value in this situation (where there are a lot of draws in villain's range that give you value now as well as worse made hands that might get spooked with a draw comes in later).

Let's talk river. His range is actually relatively weak. 44, TT, JJ and JT raise the flop almost every time. If not flop, then turn. You also super duper block JJ and JT is also very unlikely. So his range after he calls flop and turn mainly consists of Jx, 98, KQ, Q9, gut shots, and .

On the river, he's not betting Jx. He should be polarized, and based on our ranging, he's very polarized to nut-type hands and air-type hands. Since he checked his open pre, he can really have any 2 suited hearts, and the fact that we're blocking broadway flush hands with the K, J and T is meaningless.

I think that's exactly his range on the river - 98, KQ, Q9, gut shots = air and flushes = nuts.

Focusing on the OESDs,
KQ = 12 combos
Q9 = 15 combos (exclude flush)
98 = 15 combos (exclude flush)
= 42 combos

Now let's calculate flush combinations. Since he can have like ATC 's, especially since he can't have AKhh, which he might raise pre, and there are 9 hearts to choose from.. um, well I just typed "9 choose 2" into Google, and that actually worked. There are 36 combination of flushes.

If he calls flop and turn with an OESD, and then bluffs on the river with this sizing, you're definitely getting the right odds to call. If he might do the same with a gut shot like Q8, K9, 97, 87, then you should snap off the river because he's polarized but there is so much air in his range it's not funny, i.e. he's invariably very unbalanced to air-type hands.

It really all comes down to your read on villain and the combinatorics. Given how polarized he is, that you hold the Kh, which eliminates like 25% of his potential flushes (Google "10 choose 2," then do the math - you're blocking a ton of flushes here because you hold a flush card), that your read is that he can stab at pots and isn't a nit despite being an older reg, I think you should be calling here almost always. I don't love his sizing, because it does look valuish and obviously decreases your odds, but I'd still call.

Raise to 15 pre.

Raise pre-flop.
As played. Bet 30 on flop. 70 on turn. Fold river.

Seems pretty standard, you charged him to draw. He paid a bad price, and he got there. Folding is best IMO.

raise pre, rest is standard (including the river fold given your reads)

As mpethy would say...


Fish with a flush.

Turbo fold.

+1

Probably a fold. V could be making a play but given reads I think he has a flush a lot of the time.

I like Willyomans thoughts.

Bet sizing is a little big for most flushes, a little bluffy imo - feels like a lot if nothing and then Ahxh only as - this may just be me - I don't often see small flushes betting that big.

Like Willyoman said, given the guys ability to stab at pots, I'm calling.

My decision might change if I knew his pacing? Did he rush his chips in?

Despite table conditions I am liking the $15 pre flop to possibly iso. He bet a little quickly, but nothing really to pick up reads on

*GRUNCH, I didn't read the spoilers either*

Flop and turn are fine. On the river, let's range him:

Likely: Flush draws

Possible but less likely: KQ, 89, Q9

Possible but even less likely: Flopped/turned two pair or better, any single Jack-X.

You need to win 29.85% of the time to break even by calling. I'd say you're good about 25% of the time versus this villain. Against a nitty player, you're probably good 0% of the time. Close but I'd fold.

You said villian takes stabs - how is this not a stab? Seems like a text book reverse float to me; even if villian doesn't know what that means he can recognize a spot to bluff the flush. I make the crying call.

I really appreciate the in depth analysis, should have considered his possibilities more since I held the K. Looking back it seems like a decent spot to call, I am just so used to the regs playing their flush draws like this (call, call, did I hit? Ok bet!). It also threw me off since he called on two streets with a player behind him. I will have to think more about his possible combos based on my blockers and history with the villain. Still had a great session last night, but no one likes to be bluffed


Appreciate the analysis everyone, have a fun and safe NYE!