this hand was played at 2/5 but the V is a solid 5/10 reg. capable of 3-betting light. likes to go thin for value.

2/5 with 1600 effective.

UTG Straddles 10.
UTG+1 calls 10.
hero raises to $45 in the HJ with pocket 9s.
V 3-betts to $135 in the CO.
everyone folds and its back to hero who calls.

i did not think 4-betting was a good option as we can get in very tricky spots if v-decided to call 4-bet. it also sucks if he 5-bets because we have to fold. we are also deep enough to set mine/evaluate if 9s are good post flop.

Flop ($295): 2s8s3d

hero checks. V C-bets $150. hero calls.

Turn( $595): 3c.

hero checks. V bets $275. hero?

I was very confident at the time that V will not shut down on the river. he's going to jam all his value hands (aces, kings, queens, and sometimes even jacks) and all his bluffs.

is it standard to just fold here or are we allowing V to very profitably double barrel with most hands that he 3-bet preflop with? should we call turn and fold river? am i overthinking this and this is just a standard fold?

I think a call here is standard, evaluating on the river. Folding here is definitely exploitable, or else you get bluffed far too often. What hands would you be calling with here? Just sets and draws? Are you ever trapping QQ+ here? Calling is definitely right, definitely folding on A, K, or spade rivers and deciding on the rest.

we are 300bbs deep (150 with the straddle). are you really going to stack off that many bbs on the river with 99? what rivers do you consider good other than a 9 and are you willing to call a shove on them? isn't stacking off with 99 here even more exploitable than folding the turn?

fold ~ raise >>>>> call imo. It depends on how light you think he's 3! You really need a good read if you want to profitably engage with a good 5/10 reg. What is V's image of you?

How often is he doing this with suited overcards vs overpairs here?

If you think a raise can fold out most of his light 3! range then go for it, otherwise just fold and find a better spot to engage him. Probably x/f river if he calls the raise.

PS: If he's a frequent 3!, I would consider calling the straddle and letting the reg do the betting for us, IF your plan for the hand is to set-mine only (and give up on overcards)

raising the turn is nothing but raising for information. calling the straddle with a hand as strong as 99 wih deep stacks is also not good imo.

FYP.

99 is close to the bottom of our range here, we block none of our opponents value range, his bluffs have overcards and/or flush cards he can hit or bluff at, and even on blank rivers we are gonna have a hard time to call any sizeable bet. Fold.

He's a good player on your direct left, you are gonna get exploited by him. Live with that or find a new seat.

Might call down.

Might cost you EV?

he's got way more overpair combos in his range (20) than hands that pick up equity on the turn (let's say he's 3 betting all the broadway club combos - give him 10 + 2 Ax suited combos).

We're getting 3-1 on a turn call so a call is fine. The problem is are we likely going to face heat on a lot of rivers. if the villain is as good as you say he is, he should recognize we have few (if any) sets in our range when we check/call two streets. Good news is that we have a lot of 99-QQ in our range that make it more difficult for him to fire blank rivers with air.

I call.

I'd like to know what OP thinks V's range is OTF when he bets $150

Standard fold to a solid 5-10 reg.

Presumably you have a better plan than just calling down then? You found yourself in a situation where you have no information except for the reads you have on V in general and having to potentially play for stacks on the river with 9s. I've seen an almost exact copy of this hand played out at my table yesterday. Guy called a small 3! OOP and kept calling down with 9s to be shown Ts at showdown (river went x/x)

Dunno about your games, but calling a 3! OOP with 9s against a reg is not gonna be a moneymaker unless we hit a set [in my games].

So it all hinges on my initial question: "how light have you seen him 3bet before?"

I would call. I would fold a lot of rivers tho. If we have a spade and a spade hits river, I open shove.
Calling down with JJ and TT on blanks (maybe folding river with Ts on a blank). Check folding 99, unless I have a spade in which case I can open shove once a spade rivers.
Flush draws I either check fold on the river when i wiff or else im shoving when I hit.
Pretty straightforward I think. We are very narrow in these spots so we have to be careful to balance. I'm never leading river for bluff or value unless a spade hits.

I will say that if we aren't calling pre with 77 and 8x, then it probably makes sense to fold most of our 99 on the turn. Or else we're not folding any hands on the turn and that is exploitable.

Edit: we can actually call flop with AK and AQ with a spade and then fold this turn so I think we call with 99 ott.

I think this is a call. Generally better players will be more aggressive in spots where they have the betting lead, and therefore you have to call down lighter than you would like in order not to get exploited. The better hands you could have here are something like JJ, TT, 88 (I feel like we'd mostly be folding 33 and 22 preflop against this villain for that price), therefore I think 99 (especially if you dont have the 9s), is too strong of a hand to fold on the turn due to the fact that villain is very capable of getting out of line on this kind of board.

This

Also make sure you're good enough to raise 22,33 pre and not c/r turn with them

I guess i'm exploitable because i smell 10s, JJs, and QQs here first and foremost. I've called down here in your shoes in the past and it's cost me some serious $

This, might call down as well. He hasn't exactly been bombing the pot even though he's raising large pure $ amounts. If I'm calling turn I'm probably only folding to spades/offsuit aces. Disagree on those suggesting to fold 99 vs the 3 bet as well.

I suggest a seat change ASAP though.