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Old 06-16-2016, 05:16 PM   #1
BadFrog
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Squeeze range against UTG TAG

Live 1-2 game. We don't have much history with the players involved, but they both seem to be decent TAGs.

UTG opens to 12, HJ calls, we're in CO. What's our 3bet range and what sizing to we use?

I'm thinking just KK+, AK for value and maybe KQo, A2s-A5s as bluffs, giving about a 1:1 ratio. And I'd probably use about $55.
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Old 06-16-2016, 05:47 PM   #2
venice10
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Re: Squeeze range against UTG TAG

Decent TAGs at 1/2 are about as common as unicorns.

Here's where I'd start. Come up with a range that you thinking your "decent TAG" is playing. Decide how that splits between folds, calls and 4bets. You'll need to come up with a stack size because those ranges will vary based on stack size. The figure out the EV of each situation with those ranges. Think about how often you can do this before your decent TAGs figure out you have too much BS in your range.
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Old 06-16-2016, 05:47 PM   #3
QuantumSurfer
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Re: Squeeze range against UTG TAG

I think conservatively we're up against ranges of:

~22+, KQs+, AJ+, maybe 4 different versions of suited connectors.


Considering we have no reads, the best option is to play it ABC. 3b JJ+ & AK. It's too early to bluff. Gather reads.

As far as sizing, I'd base it off stack sizes. I want to make stacking as easy as possible with premiums. I'd bet $45+, as much as I think would get a caller with medium stacks, like the 100bb we're likely to have at a new table vs. decent tags who aren't likely to go short. If you happen to be deep-stacked, I'd consider not going over ~$45 to make folding to 4bet easier if we have AK/JJ/QQ
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Old 06-16-2016, 06:10 PM   #4
BadFrog
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Re: Squeeze range against UTG TAG

Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10 View Post
Here's where I'd start. Come up with a range that you thinking your "decent TAG" is playing. Decide how that splits between folds, calls and 4bets. You'll need to come up with a stack size because those ranges will vary based on stack size. The figure out the EV of each situation with those ranges. Think about how often you can do this before your decent TAGs figure out you have too much BS in your range.
Sure. So I'd expect them to open about 12% UTG. That's 160 combos. After we 3bet, I'd expect:

Raise: KK+ (12 combos, 7.5%)
Call: QQ, JJ, AQ+ (44 combos, 27.5%)
Fold: 65%

We want our value range to be ahead of their calling range, so that's how I came up with KK+, AK.

If we bet $55 here, we need folds 67% of the time for a bluff with no equity to be profitable. Obviously our bluffs do have equity, so they're going to be marginally +EV when UTG folds 65%. Since bluffing isn't hugely profitable here, we don't want to go crazy, hence the 1:1 ratio.

We haven't mentioned HJ yet in this analysis, but they should be folding a massive amount, and if they do call, we're happy playing IP against their capped range postflop.
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Old 06-16-2016, 06:12 PM   #5
BadFrog
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Re: Squeeze range against UTG TAG

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It's too early to bluff. Gather reads.
Why wouldn't you bluff here? Is your population read that regs are calling too much in this spot?
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Old 06-16-2016, 07:46 PM   #6
cAmmAndo
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Squeeze range against UTG TAG

Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10 View Post
Decent TAGs at 1/2 are about as common as unicorns.

Here's where I'd start. Come up with a range that you thinking your "decent TAG" is playing. Decide how that splits between folds, calls and 4bets. You'll need to come up with a stack size because those ranges will vary based on stack size. The figure out the EV of each situation with those ranges. Think about how often you can do this before your decent TAGs figure out you have too much BS in your range.

Give a man a strat he'll 3! For a day.... Teach a man to strat.... He'll fold for a lifetime.
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Old 06-16-2016, 07:58 PM   #7
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Re: Squeeze range against UTG TAG

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Originally Posted by BadFrog View Post
Why wouldn't you bluff here? Is your population read that regs are calling too much in this spot?
Bluffing unknowns at 1/2 is generally bad because stations make up such a large portion of the pool. You will get yourself into trouble more often then you win an easy pot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadFrog View Post
Sure. So I'd expect them to open about 12% UTG. That's 160 combos. After we 3bet, I'd expect:

Raise: KK+ (12 combos, 7.5%)
Call: QQ, JJ, AQ+ (44 combos, 27.5%)
Fold: 65%
If villain is actually TAG then 12% is wide. The TAG is looking to play 1-2 hands per orbit, mostly from LP. His UTG range is probably less then 10%. Also, against an unknown 3 bet he probably chucks AQ but depending on stack sizes might play any pair he opened.
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Old 06-16-2016, 08:58 PM   #8
jake
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Re: Squeeze range against UTG TAG

Interested in your 3 bet bluffing range.... I don't mind your suited aces - but hate KQo... When 3bet bluffing I'm mostly trying to take it down from someone that I know can fold and hopefully someone I've got a sizing tell on. Plan B, of course, is to actually have a better hand. The nice thing about a suited Ace is that (besides Flush and straight equity) - if we happen to hit 2p - there's a decent chance we're going to get action. I also like small/mid PPs in my bluffing range. KQ feels like it's got too much RIO.

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Bluffing unknowns at 1/2 is generally bad because stations make up such a large portion of the pool. You will get yourself into trouble more often then you win an easy pot.
^^ amen
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Old 06-16-2016, 11:14 PM   #9
WhskyRiv
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Re: Squeeze range against UTG TAG

TT+ AQ+, garbage for balance 72, 63, 23 which are easy to get away from


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Old 06-17-2016, 06:46 AM   #10
venice10
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Re: Squeeze range against UTG TAG

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadFrog View Post
Sure. So I'd expect them to open about 12% UTG. That's 160 combos. After we 3bet, I'd expect:

Raise: KK+ (12 combos, 7.5%)
Call: QQ, JJ, AQ+ (44 combos, 27.5%)
Fold: 65%

We want our value range to be ahead of their calling range, so that's how I came up with KK+, AK.

If we bet $55 here, we need folds 67% of the time for a bluff with no equity to be profitable. Obviously our bluffs do have equity, so they're going to be marginally +EV when UTG folds 65%. Since bluffing isn't hugely profitable here, we don't want to go crazy, hence the 1:1 ratio.

We haven't mentioned HJ yet in this analysis, but they should be folding a massive amount, and if they do call, we're happy playing IP against their capped range postflop.
It will more depend on whether he is decent or a TAG. Someone raising that much in the UTG is going to be raising about a quarter of the hands pf overall, which means he isn't a TAG. If he isn't positionally aware, he isn't decent.
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Old 06-17-2016, 07:22 AM   #11
KKingDavid
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Re: Squeeze range against UTG TAG

Never squeeze as bluff vs TAG who is UTG. His opening range isn't 12%, will be about 8% or less. At $1/2 live, this is recipe for lighting your money on fire.


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Old 06-17-2016, 03:51 PM   #12
BadFrog
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Re: Squeeze range against UTG TAG

Quote:
Originally Posted by jake View Post
Interested in your 3 bet bluffing range.... I don't mind your suited aces - but hate KQo... When 3bet bluffing I'm mostly trying to take it down from someone that I know can fold and hopefully someone I've got a sizing tell on. Plan B, of course, is to actually have a better hand. The nice thing about a suited Ace is that (besides Flush and straight equity) - if we happen to hit 2p - there's a decent chance we're going to get action. I also like small/mid PPs in my bluffing range. KQ feels like it's got too much RIO.
I like KQo for bluffing preflop purely because of its blockers. A tightish villain might continue to a 3bet with JJ+, AQ+. If we hold KQo, that range is reduced by 25%.
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Old 06-17-2016, 07:28 PM   #13
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Re: Squeeze range against UTG TAG

I think small-medium suited Aces should be 3 bet a large portion of the time in position (or a fold). We block an ace in his hand, realize huge implied odds if we make two pair against his ace or make the wheel, and generally we can barrel twice on dry boards and pick up the pot. And of course we have the nut flush draw.
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