Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Here's where I'd start. Come up with a range that you thinking your "decent TAG" is playing. Decide how that splits between folds, calls and 4bets. You'll need to come up with a stack size because those ranges will vary based on stack size. The figure out the EV of each situation with those ranges. Think about how often you can do this before your decent TAGs figure out you have too much BS in your range.
Sure. So I'd expect them to open about 12% UTG. That's 160 combos. After we 3bet, I'd expect:
Raise: KK+ (12 combos, 7.5%)
Call: QQ, JJ, AQ+ (44 combos, 27.5%)
Fold: 65%
We want our value range to be ahead of their calling range, so that's how I came up with KK+, AK.
If we bet $55 here, we need folds 67% of the time for a bluff with no equity to be profitable. Obviously our bluffs do have equity, so they're going to be marginally +EV when UTG folds 65%. Since bluffing isn't hugely profitable here, we don't want to go crazy, hence the 1:1 ratio.
We haven't mentioned HJ yet in this analysis, but they should be folding a massive amount, and if they do call, we're happy playing IP against their capped range postflop.