Just got back from a short session and was considering what the consensus would be on the best play...

1/2 NL @ Sands

Table was pretty passive for the most part, but villain was tilting pretty hard at this time and played close to 100% hands pre, coming in mostly for a raise. He did this for about 3 orbits and would come in for a raise 6/10 times.

The other players involved were passive and played their hands face up for the most part.

Hero ($300 / Hijack) : Playing pretty tight/borderline nit. Only been at the table for about maybe 45 minutes.

Villain (Eff stack $150) raises UTG to $16, UTG+1 calls $16 ($100), MP1 calls $16 ($200), MP2 calls $16 ($250), Hero has 8 8...flat to set mine or 3bet to $75-$90?

If he's on tilt, I'd flat and set-mine. I think he could shove a lot of hands that normally someone would fold to a 3-bet in this spot.

Squeezing is generally better against people who aren't on tilt and are going to be able to give you credit for a big hand and fold to you. Not someone who raises a ton and just seems like he wants to get his chips in the middle. Also UTG raises are pretty strong, he might limp a lot of hands here that you're thinking is in his raising range.

We can certainly squeeze here, but only if we (obviously) plan to play for stacks. If he's been raising 60% of his hands for the last 3 orbits, this is a super standard raise for value/isolation.

I think $75 gets it about done here. He likely shoves his whole range if he's that tilty, and we of course snap call.

If anyone else comes along after he flats or shoves, we might have to reconsider, but otherwise we're good.


This is all assuming that his sizing pre flop has been about the same thing most of the time. If he's been raising to $10 or $12 in a lot of his hands, and he's making it $16 now we might just want to flat.



I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure there's no possible range here that he could shove that we don't have odds against. If we raise to $75 and he shoves, we're calling $75 into $300. Obv getting 4:1 we're good. (And this is assuming that we're not actually ahead right now, which is very possible.) This really all depends on how strong his UTG range is though. Which is one of the caveats that mentioned.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but just making it clear that if he's tilting and raising 60% this is a value squeeze. If he's no longer titling, then yes we need to flat and set mine.

Why does this make a 3bet bad?

Also, it seems people are misusing the word "squeeze" this would be a straight value 3bet vs. this tilting villain

Well if he shoves 99+, AK/AQ, I don't think we're doing that well. I still don't think he'd shove stuff like QJs but most people who are not on tilt will fold 99-JJ, AQ to a big 3-bet, especially if you have a tight image.

He was opening or isoing for 16 almost every single time.

It seems pretty thin, though. I think you're better off flatting and trying to double/triple up when you hit a set.

If he's opening 60% (or we'll even pretend that he's lol tightening up from EP and opening 20% then he's folding almost 50-60% of the time here, and reshoving with the remainder of his range which we're 35-40% against. Getting 4:1, plus all the dead money when he doesn't ship. Seems pretty like a good idea.

I dunno.

Both options seem great.

Shove pre.

Seriously.

If everyone had 120 or less I'd consider a shove. The thing to know though, it's Villain-dependent, is who doesn't care and is more likely to call when the pot gets bigger. You should be more likely to call if everyone else fold and you're last to act. Some people will just want to play craps and if 3 call they'll call for the odds and not care about reloading.

I'd mine here.

Grunch

Never calling. Never raising anything less than a jam. If you 3! you end up with a psb left if... nay, when he calls. On the 1/10 chance he doesn't call, you just scooped 32bb with 88 without seeing a flop. congrats.

Be properly rolled and get it in as a favorite against his range.

Setmining is probably +EV here because of the other players involved, but getting it in is unquestionably more +EV.

edit: there is always the possibility that someone flatted with QQ/KK/AA since this is 1/2 donkeyball, but in the long run GII will be the best play.

This. You aren't deep enough to set mine and almost every flop will have a couple overcards.

Is shoving here really that profitable?

Call.

Squeeze here is most likely not folding enough hands, sets us up to setmine with any card over 8 scaring us.

Shove is spew IMO. Maybe with QQ+ shove, but 88? Nah.

Shoving is printing money here. Villain's opening wide and effective stack sizes are such that if flats any small three bet, we're pretty much forced to "go n go". 3 betting smaller may also set off a chain reaction for other villains to call b/c theyre "getting odds", and with 88 we're looking for folds.

The 3 callers are pretty much dead money if we shove. We'll probably fold out a ton of overcard type hands villain (and cold callers) can have that were flipping with which is a great result. If called its not the end of the world as we have decent equity vs his calling range plus were getting a great overlay on a flip w/ his the AK,AQ etc.

I'm shipping 22

Jam

Yes. ~$80 in dead money

3bet to get it in

this pot is bloated, there's basically 16bbs of dead money and we crush their ranges, getting it in is clearly best, high variance but clearly best vs this dude

holy **** i just saw 4 people flatted, i thought just one person flatted

make that a shove

Shoving makes our hand really face up, i'd make it 80 and call jams. Only reason i would consider flatting is because of the terrific relative position, but I think raising is a lot more profitable

This

Seriously

I would probably leave myself $2 or so behind in order not to be forced to show first, but other than that: shove

i like that....

Not sure I understand rationale for shove. (Really, not being sarcastic.)

- We are ahead of each player's range individually. But in aggregate, we are crushed.
- Therefore, not counting the dead money, we want no more than one caller.
- I guess with the dead money, we could live with two callers? Given that we have five chances to make our set, odds by the river of spiking is almost 20% I guess...

So I guess the bottom line is, we are figuring most of the time we have two or fewer callers if we bomb pre? How'm I doing?




(I would set mine here, mainly because I've had my ass handed to me so much lately trying to push the table around with 88. Granted, same thing happens with JJ, for much the same reason I guess--variance. Hence the comment re: "if you're rolled for it," huh.)

Without knowing Vs my guess is our shove range looks like AA/KK and maybe AK. This is 1/2 at a passive table. People may put the maniac on odd hands for a shove but not someone who is tag/borderline nit. I may be wrong but are you saying shoving here makes any V think we have middle pp? At a typical 1/2 table?