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Spewy or ok bluff? Spewy or ok bluff?

10-12-2015 , 10:24 PM
Hero has slightly loose image but is mostly tag. Villian are all pretty standard 1/2. Passive bad but nobody horrible. Hero has about 250 to start the hand.

4 limps and hero makes it 15 to go with AJo out of the BB. All call.

Flop 70 - 96Khhh. Hero has Jh and checks and it checks through.

Turn 70 - Q. Hero leads out for 30. Figure most real hands would of bet the flop and hero has outs if called.

All fold except for btn who calls. Btn again is a standard bad passive type 1/2 player.

River 140 - 9. Not a great card to bluff but figure V has alot of weak 1 pair hands and missed draws here that I can get him off. I beat 65 which is small but 1/2 players don't usually focus on size of the pot and more look at the exact number which let you set some pretty good prices on bluffs.
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-12-2015 , 10:27 PM
V covers also
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-12-2015 , 10:37 PM
Just check turn
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-12-2015 , 10:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by D.M.O.U.
Just check turn
It's close. IP I check but OOP I wanted to bet because I can't really call a bet OOP and don't want to get wrongly folded off my equity
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-12-2015 , 10:55 PM
Bet the flop!
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-12-2015 , 11:05 PM
Think that's a pretty big spew with just the Jh. Someone could easily of hit this board. Checking let's us get much more info. I bet into 1 or maybe 2 players but not 4
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-12-2015 , 11:17 PM
Bigger pre to thin the field or just check your option.

Not a big fan of cbet bluffing oop into this many people, especially without strong reads.
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-12-2015 , 11:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
Bet the flop!
With just the Jh into four players? No thanks.

Turn bet is kinda close. Given that there are 4 players I think I'm checking. As played if you're gonna bluff I'd bet $100+ otherwise Kx is calling down.
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-13-2015 , 12:59 AM
Grunch.

Hate the PF sizing. I think you’re getting a lot of calls, which sets you up for a big multi-way pot OOP with a weakish, offsuit TP-type holding.

On the flop, I’d bet $50 and feel I had a pretty good chance to take it down with the third nut flush draw as backup.

Hate the turn bet. Maybe some of them will think you’re slowplaying, but otherwise it looks really weak.

I think the river bluff has moderately negative EV. Yeah, absolute bet size matters but $65 isn’t that big and LLSNL players also call too much. Check, <1/2 pot, <1/2 pot really doesn’t scream strength. On top of that, some of the hands that fold were hands you were beating anyway.

I’d suggest raising to about $25 pre. Assuming you get a caller, bet around 2/3 pot on this flop. Play poker from there.
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-13-2015 , 01:50 AM
check pre
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-13-2015 , 03:06 PM
I think most of what call the turn call the river except the missed Ah which you're beating.
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-13-2015 , 03:26 PM
Villain calls with very close to 100% of all hands that were at least 3rd pair as of the turn. 9x is obviously now trips, and the flopped top pair is never ever folding when the flop checks through and the board runs out pretty safe (no over cards, no more flush possibilities). So Qx is the only hand that considers folding, and I expect it to call mostly because it's obvious we don't have a 9 and it's obvious we don't have a flush. And this is without mentioning hands like JT.

Other than like Ah6x, we already beat most everything that you fold with this bet.

The fact that there are literally zero river cards that I want to continue our bluff on (each of the 4-straights give us SDV, the only remaining overcard gives us SDV, and the 4-flush gives us SDV), I would just check the turn and hope our equity pans out.
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-13-2015 , 03:42 PM
This comes down to which hands that call the turn will fold the river.

on K96
the flop checks say that your range is capped. Now, I am inclined to believe flopped flushes bet the flop from the button when checked to. He is on the button. For this reason I want to greatly discount made flushes from his turn calling range, except for maybe the nut flush or 23 I don't know.

What else would the BU bet on the flop? doubt the bastard has KK. But, he would probably bet 99 and 66. Or maybe XR the turn with them, but more on that later.

On this board, he could check his straight draws.

He could check all of his two pair. This seems believable. He could check all PPs, including those with a heart.

He could check rando single hearts and of course his air as well.


K96 Qo
Everybody folds except the button who calls. Now this is the decision point. Which hands call?
-Straights
-Straights + heart redraw
-Pair + gutter
-Pair + gutter + heart
-two pair
-PPs w a heart
-Sets
-Ah
-Flopped flushes

The river isn't really a brick. I guess you can count the combos and decide which parts of his range fold for your size and come up with an answer. At this point I've gotten lazy.

When I started writing this I thought it might be fine, but now I don't know. Sometimes all the 67 will call the turn and fold the river, for example.
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-13-2015 , 03:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shpanko
With just the Jh into four players? No thanks.

Turn bet is kinda close. Given that there are 4 players I think I'm checking. As played if you're gonna bluff I'd bet $100+ otherwise Kx is calling down.
Betting the flop is just better than betting the turn. You actually don't get much information from the opponents' flop checks because most people are too passive to play a one-pair hand aggressively here. So basically the main thing you find out is that no one flopped a flush, but you could already deduce that no one flopped a flush because flopping a flush is hard. Meanwhile, checking when you have the initiative basically denies that you have any kind of good hand. Plus you actually have decent equity against a lot of hands that could call you on the flop, even though I agree that the Jh is nothing to write home about.
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-13-2015 , 03:50 PM
flop is a c/f/give up unimproved

with a loose image, I would probably check my option rather than have people calling you lighter than if you were more TAG.
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-13-2015 , 03:52 PM
This comes down to which hands that call the turn will fold the river.

on K96
the flop checks say that your range and is capped. Now, I am inclined to believe flopped flushes bet the flop from the button when checked to. He is on the button. For this reason I want to greatly discount made flushes from his calling range, except for maybe the nut flush or 23 I don't know.

What else would the BU bet on the flop? doubt the bastard has KK. But, he would probably bet 99 and 66. Or maybe XR the turn with them, but more on that later.

On this board, he could check his straight draws.

He could check all of his two pair. This seems believable. He could check all PPs, including those with a heart.

He could check rando single hearts and of course his air as well.


K96 Qo
Everybody folds except the button who calls. Now this is the decision point. Which hands call?
-Straights
-Straights + heart redraw
-Pair + gutter
-Pair + gutter + heart
-two pair
-PPs w a heart
-Sets
-Ah
-Flopped flushes

The river isn't really a brick. I guess you can count the combos and decide which parts of his range fold for your size and come up with an answer. At this point I've gotten lazy.

When I started writing this I thought it might be fine, but now I don't know. Sometimes all the 67 will call the turn and fold the river, for example.
Spewy or ok bluff? Quote
10-13-2015 , 10:28 PM
The moment I see bluff + $1/2 stakes + 4 handed, I knew you have caught the FPS. I think this is a major leak in your game.

Minimal bluffing in multiway pot and going for fat value with monsters is the way to go at this level.
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10-13-2015 , 11:25 PM
I dislike the raise pre if it's getting called in 4 places. you either need to go bigger or just check behind, and I usually just check behind. AJo is going to make a lot of hands that are ok to play in a small pot, especially OOP.

River is a tough decision, but I probably lean towards checking. As noted above, most of the hands that call the turn are made hands and hands with one heart in them and/or a straight draw. I don't think the made hands are folding here, and you beat all of the naked draws. Question is how often he shows up on the turn with a pair + a draw, how often that pair was a 9 that now made trips, and how often he folds the other ones to a bet. Suspect you could get a 6 and heart to fold, and you probably can get low and medium pocket pairs with a heart to fold. Without reads, don't think V is folding a K, so the question then is does he fold a Q with a heart. Again, if your only read is that V is passive bad but not horrible, assume he'll call with a Q.
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