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Old 03-11-2014, 11:25 PM   #1
ArsenalGunners2
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Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

Haven't been at the table long and haven't don't anything of note. Villain is older white guy who has been talking about spr to the guy next to him for about 30mins. Seems somewhat competent but some of the strategy stuff he has said has been ******ed. I haven't chimed in at all obv. I decided to turn this into bluff because I feel like all value hands he bets on this board on flop and turn, he would also value bet river. Does not seem good enough to check with a value hand and I haven't done anything thus far at table aside from fold pretty much to make him think I might bluff here.

Hero is mp2 ($300) with KhQh , utg1 makes it $15, hero calls, sb calls, bb folds.

Flop $48: 7h7s5h
Sb bets $25, utg1 folds, hero calls
Turn $98: Jd sb bets $50, hero calls
River $198: 4c sb checks, hero bets $210 AI
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Old 03-12-2014, 01:03 AM   #2
Flatbarrel
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Not superbad but -EV i feel considering V and betsize.
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Old 03-12-2014, 01:13 AM   #3
stinkubus
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

The call pre is fairly marginal. I'd expect a tight ep opening range from villain. If we get heads up we are way behind his range on most flops, and most of the times it goes mw we are in poor position post, stuck in the middle between the pfr and whoever trailed in.

Villian would have to fold ~52% of the time for your bluff to break even. Given the ep open, he's mostly showing up with good overpairs. He may fold his weaker overpairs (stuff like TT), but your holding blocks his only likely draws. I think you are going to get snapped off by QQ+ far too often to bluff successfully.

As a general question for those who respond later, if we would be capable of bluffing this player >52% on this run out, should we even be calling down on this run out, or should we make a move for the pot prior to the river? We can't have that great of implied odds if he'd considering folding on this river, but we actually have a big equity edge of the flop, which mostly vanishes when the turn bricks. I think I'm raising the flop.
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Old 03-12-2014, 01:27 AM   #4
chriswt
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

Raise flop to about ~$80, his range that calls would probably be 88-AA, half of which you could barrel off on the J turn. As played, I don't think V is folding often enough, seems like a line he would take to x/c a bunch of whiffed draws (although 86 did get there).
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Old 03-12-2014, 02:29 AM   #5
ArsenalGunners2
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Sb covers btw.

I feel like raising turn is probably best.

As played he tank called AQo black which I think is horrible tbh bc so many of my bluffs can beat him if I am bluffing and he has to be right fairly often . Thoughts?

Last edited by ArsenalGunners2; 03-12-2014 at 02:35 AM.
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Old 03-12-2014, 02:51 AM   #6
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

I like a raise on the flop and a barrel on the turn. As played river bet is pretty bad.

BTW, FWIW, I don't believe any of your river bluffs beat villain except AK if you were to play it like that.
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Old 03-12-2014, 03:17 AM   #7
CRAIerrday
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

If I know nothing about his game, I probably check and see what he has. Then I can exploit it later.

To people saying fold KQs IP...lol, if you don't call there, what do you call with?

As long as you can balance this bet with your value hands you should be fine, especially as it can set up a cool dynamic between you. Then again, you may never play this V again, in which case I probably spend less time bluffing and more time making thin value bets. If I were to raise, it would be on the flop, so when we're checked to ott we can get a free card (if we don't hit).

Just reread the HH and saw that SB led into the field. I probably call flop and fold turn considering he is telling a good story, despite many draws being in his range. Otr I like a check, considering we have showdown value against his draws that gave up (except for AXhh) and we can get cheap information.

You also mentioned he bets the river with a value hand. If you don't think he has a hand, why such a big bet?
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Old 03-12-2014, 03:26 AM   #8
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

Wow just saw results...I have no idea wtf he is doing otf and ott, but that's a pretty sick hero call.

What hands would you turn into a bluff there that beat him, considering your bluffing range is mostly flush draws? Would you really shove with a 5 in that spot?

Against villains like this I try to value-bet super thin because they will almost always level themselves into calling.
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Old 03-12-2014, 03:36 AM   #9
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

The bluff was probably a bad idea because people who know about spr probably have heard the phrase "give him a chance to bluff his missed draw" at one time or another. I agree with those saying raise the flop and probably barrel the turn.

...Then I saw what he called with, and yeah, that's...pretty crazy. His river call is very questionable imo. You could've done the same thing with AKs even if he thought you were bluffing.
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Old 03-12-2014, 03:40 AM   #10
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

I would raise flop. You re more likely ahead at this point and it might as well be a value bet. If a blank comes on the turn, your bet is credible.

OTOH, your bet on the river screams of a busted draw. Would you have bet your value range the same way? If yes, it's fine. But if not, bet high enough that is not a trivial call, but low enough that it seems you re value betting.
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Old 03-12-2014, 11:37 AM   #11
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

I don't feel great about being the first caller to the raise, but in the end it's for just 5% of our stack and I'm just going to hope this is going to go very multiway and we can play a nice multiway hand.

I would also just call the flop. Pot isn't hugenormous compared to stacks, so even though we have a decent draw (flush + overs) I don't think we have to get on our way to risking stacks yet in order to win it. If the rest of stacks did happen to go all-in on the flop, we're most likely in pretty serious trouble.

I think I give up on the turn. Ya, we're getting ok odds of 3:1. But we're chasing a fairly obvious draw (perhaps not great implied odds against this guy), plus the board is paired, meaning there is a chance we only have 7 outs (therefore we need closer to 6:1 to chase our flush draw, so we're going to need to make up a lot of bets on the river), plus we have high RIO if we hit and are no good. We also don't know if our overs are any good and the could even get us in trouble.

I hate the river shove. First, this can easily be a 7x / etc. who figures they are up against a busted flush draw, in which case the best option is to check and let that flush draw spew. Second, if we are going to bluff, there is no reason to bet so much; he's never folding a 7, and he's probably not folding much else having just left himself with a PSB on the river; so the only hands we are targetting here is like a busted A high flush draw or a small pair, in which case a very small bet should do the trick (like even 1/4 of pot), which doesn't have to be successful all that much to be profitable. But honestly, I'd probably just give up at this point (noting that we do have showdown value against worse flush draws).

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 03-12-2014, 12:07 PM   #12
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

Your river shove looks like a bluff. You are super polarized on the river (would you shove Jx or 9x for value in this spot? or 88 as a bluff?). I would consider calling down with AQ in villain's shoes as well.
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Old 03-12-2014, 12:13 PM   #13
Dubey
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

These types of overbet bluff shoves work well against bad, straight forward, level 1 players. Against a villain with a clue, and any hand reading skills, this bluff will work very very seldom.
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Old 03-12-2014, 12:33 PM   #14
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

Shoving river is unnecessary as a bluff. You don't need to size it so large as V is never folding a pair. Let's be honest, villains don't expect you to shove JX or other pairs.
What hands are you trying to fold otr with a bluff? Pretty much only AXhh.
You have a lot more SDV than you think, and a lot of his range that beats you is never folding the river to any size bet, I think i'd rather just check it back.
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Old 03-12-2014, 12:43 PM   #15
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

not really a good bluff spot as he should call with ace high as well, especially if he has blocker

hands you bet on the end:
whiffed draws
7x
boats

not many boat combos you can have and you almost never have a jack unless it was AJhh which you might be raising on the turn


it doesnt seem like you villain's 2 barrel c/c range or what villains's perception of your range is
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Old 03-12-2014, 01:04 PM   #16
bwslim69
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

Quote:
Originally Posted by miamicheats View Post
not really a good bluff spot as he should call with ace high as well, especially if he has blocker

hands you bet on the end:
whiffed draws
7x
boats

not many boat combos you can have and you almost never have a jack unless it was AJhh which you might be raising on the turn


it doesnt seem like you villain's 2 barrel c/c range or what villains's perception of your range is
68 too but yeah this is a terrible bluff spot IMO as people always want to put you on the busted draw
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Old 03-12-2014, 01:26 PM   #17
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River shove looks like a bluff. I'd prefer raising flop, barreling turn.

As played, I would give up on river. Since V isn't a fish, about 25% of the time I might do a smaller bet designed to look like a value bet - though I'd expect V to call much of the time with AQ+, overpair.
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Old 03-12-2014, 01:41 PM   #18
miamicheats
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Re: Spew??? 1/3 turning missed draw into bluff

actually we should discount a lot of the 7x combos too since we would likely raise at some point to charge against flush draw
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