2/5 at Parx.

Hero ($800) is young white kid wearing a zipped up sweater kind of thing. Has barely limped at all, almost always raising when coming into pots. Has shown down one hand and basically told table another hand of importance. In the first hand I raise to 20 with 9c7c and old guy calls in SB. Flop 9x7x3c goes check check. Turn Qc SB checks I bet 25 SB calls. River 8c old guy instantly throws black chip out for $100 bet into $92 pot, I call, he says "nice hand" and mucks before seeing my cards.

Second hand I raise to 25 with QTo from EP and get calls from SB and BB. Flop AJ9r check check I bet 55 SB makes it 130 BB folds I call. Turn 5x SB bets 150 I call. River 2x SB jams like 500 I fold he slams 76o down and makes a big speech about how great he is. BB says something like calm down he might have had king high, to which I reply "I couldn't beat K high." SB starts speculating and finally says something like "It must have been QT!" I shouldn't have given the info but I was frustrated and his display made me say something.

Villain ($850) is young Middle Eastern looking kid. He has been talking a lot and seems very comfortable at the table. He has also been losing and has been playing A LOT of pots. He's aggressive at times and passive at times but doesn't ever seem to fold pre flop. In a recent hand I saw the old guy in the first hand I described put $300 in on a 764 flop (I don't know if this was a bet or a raise but 3 players took a flop after another player 3b to 85 pre). Our villain jams like 650 total with 98, gets snap called by old guy's 66, old guy turns a 4 and makes a big speech at the kid about how he can't push him around and young guys always try to make moves. Kid keeps talking back to him, not in an angry way but in a playful way that hints that his mindset told him he was going to make that money back eventually. His jam seemed weird though since he has almost no fold equity and 9 high.

Anyway, onto the hand. Three players limp, including villain on the button. I make it $30 with AA from the SB. Folds to villain who turns to me and says "just one caller" and throws out the 30.

Flop (pot 75): K64r. I bet 55. Villain is staring intently at me as I count out chips and put them in the middle. Villain calls.

Turn (pot 185): K646. I bet 100. Villain stares at me the whole way then calls the 100.

River (pot 385): K646J. I bet 175, villain takes about 10 seconds then announces all in. The all in is for about 450 more, or 625 total.

For whatever reason I really felt like I was going to get jammed on on the river. After the flop I told myself I wanted to bet 3 streets for value, especially against this particular villain. I don't know if it was just a pessimistic attitude of "oh they always get there vs AA" or if I picked something up subconsciously. Possibly even just given this villain I felt he was gonna jam river really often, either for value or to pull off a "spectacular" bluff just as the other kid did to me earlier.

So my questions about the hand. Is my sizing okay on each street? Should I just check/call the river? As played, do I find a fold or just put the money in? Against most people I think this is a pretty trivial fold, but with this particular villain combined with the fact that the table is playing quite loose and showing bluffs and trying to "outplay" everyone, it made my decision more difficult.

Preflop and flop are fine.

Turn: I think I check/call here since the middle card pairing sort of sucks and it's not like a random K is usually calling 3 streets anyway unless he has AK (or maybe KQ?). That being said, a bet is fine, just not preferable IMO.

River: This is tough. I've recently been working on folding to river raises since villains tend to be showdown monkeys and rarely raise with anything but the nuts. This is 2/5, however, which plays differently from the 1/2 I am used to. This is especially tough because KJ is such an obvious hand that he could have right now...

Is the "sudden river aggression means nuts" theory just as valid at 2/5 as it is at 1/2?

I would've b/c $300 OTR.

Against most standard opponents I think it usually is safe to say it's the nuts, but against this opponent I think it's often nuts or air. And it can be air somewhat often. I don't know how often though and that's pretty much what decides if this is a call or fold imo. Interesting you say to slow down on turn; only 6x improves from a hand that's behind to a hand that beats me with that turn card. It's certainly in his range, just a very small part imo. But maybe slowing down is better here. Tough for most villains to be calling 30 pre with a random 6 but this is definitely the type to do it, especially with the button.

From what you've seen, what is villain's limping range otb? What I mean is, is KJ even a part of his range?

Also, do you think he is competant? It seems so from your description but not sure. Like, how do you think he is ranging you in this hand? And he realizes KJ isn't that great here, right?

I really don't see 6x playing like this ott and otr. Did he really just slowplay one of the three combos of 44 all this way? Really?

IMO this is total spazz, or 44.

I think the b/b/b line is fine. I also think they would be b/f or b/c depeding on circumstances. The circumstances here lean me to a call.

Not sure about sizing otr as it kind of sets up a perfect sizing for him to jam on. 11t should have some good insight on b/f sizings... not saying he'd think this is a b/f.

I think so. When villain takes a c/c, c/c, b or c, c, r line, there's generally five options

1. villain flopped huge and was trapping
2. villain flopped a draw and hit on turn or river
3. villain flopped a decent hand, but improved on river
4. villain flopped a draw, missed, and decided to bluff river
5. villain floated two streets to bluff river

#1 is always a possibility, #2 is impossible on this board, #3 is fairly unlikely as the only way he could have improved from "decent" to "good enough to bomb river" is exactly KJ and live players don't usually make thin value river raises like that. #4 would be exactly 75 (well maybe 53? is vil that loose? Also vil as described probably plays oesd more aggressively) And #5 is just ridiculous.

I wouldn't feel too bad about folding here and b/f 3 streets is totally fine. Don't ever c/c river because you are getting valuebet far far far more often than you are getting bluffed.

Random 6? It's not like we're in a 3bet or 4bet pot or anything; there are plenty of suited 6x hands in his range that would be reasonable to call with.

Slowing down on the turn isn't just about the actual turn card itself, but rather, the fact the board is relatively dry, there are very few scare cards for us, and that only the most stationy villains are calling 3 streets with less than AK anyway. This is all in addition to the fact that the turned 6 is probably the 2nd worst card for us behind the K.

You also made it clear that he is aggressive so we have the added value of inducing.

I don't think betting turn is terrible or bad or anything. I just think checking is better. As played is whatever, IMO. Im pretty much always folding to villains who take lines like this but you presented this villain as aggro and KJ makes perfect sense. So eh, whatever =P

Did you just look into my head lol this is really along my lines of thinking. I was thinking I was gonna see 66, 44, or air (like 75) and sometimes a random 6. I don't think he's jamming any worse hands for value. I even looked at him after he jammed and said something like "god why did I know this was coming. I was hoping you could just flat with KQ and I could be happy with everything and take the pot." The only way he can jam KJ for value is if he puts me on AK.

He was an interesting villain because he had no fear and went with reads if he thought he was good, but also did some really weird things I thought were bad (like jamming with almost no FE with 98 on 764 flop). I think he probably raises KJ on his button but I can see him limp/calling with it sometimes too. I think he probably has me on a hand similar to the one I have, but I'd have to assume if he thinks I can have AA then he has to think I can have KK too. If he has been REALLY paying attention he can think back to me checking the 97 on 973 flop after raising pre and decide I would have checked KK on the flop, but I don't know if hes thinking THAT much about it.

KJ might be part of his range but definitely a small part. He seemed really keen on "winning his money" back so jamming KJ is possible just praying I have AK or super spaz with QQ.

Oh and at Tao: I didn't mean random 6 as in it would be random for him to have it, but just as in "his hand is 6x, aka any random 6, a hand with 6 and a random kicker" etc. Of course it's part of his limp/calling range given he has been playing almost every hand.

In some of these cases where you get 'a speech' before a call I generally like to overbet the Flop to see how serious they might be. If they call the Flop bet I might check the Turn, especially with a paired board to see if they want to bet into me and then go for a c/r. The River AP and in my scenario are both hard to play either with lead-outs or checking for showdown.

My feeling here is that he is putting you on air AQ and hit the K or J (maybe set JJ). This certianly would be a tough call. Turn bet couldve been a touch bigger and he may have picked up on a smaller percentage bet by you and decided to go for broke with with AK/KJ/JJ/KK? I am not much help to you here ... GL

I call. The fact that he is repping such a narrow range of 66s, 44s, and 6x, and only having to be good about 35% of the time, makes this a call against an opponent who may be making a move.

I'd go more pre, flop is good, and more ott and otr, making your river decision much easier.

Range: KJ, KK, JJ, 44, 6x

Even if you range him on relatively connected suited 6's and A6o we've got like 23% equity. This can definitely be the airball from the opponent but range-wise it's probably a fold.

If you think this is a bluff here a good % of the time you can make a call but it's going to probably be high variance at best.

I also don't know why both you guys are saying "I don't see how he could play 6x" that way. I think that, if I was villain, this is, literally, exactly the way that I play 76s or 65s.

But yeah, call or fold is close to neutral EV IMO.

> 99% of the time, yes

I deduce if he's at all capable of this move, and if he is, whether to make the "hero" call includes some lollive tells

considerations are -

1) our image & history obv - primary factor if we decide he can make this move with air
2) what range I feel he's limping behind OTB with (can we exclude KJ? pairs?) - very important

the rest are mildly important:

3) how quickly did he call turn? this might help to decide if he's on 5-7... a slightly longer pause that hollywoods or genuinely contemplates what to do could be 6x... this can be shaky - an honest assessment of how good you are at reading people should weigh in
4) his overall mannerism during the 10 sec pause before announcing allin
5) whether he's still staring me down afterwards - I'm a tad more likely to call if he is

Call the shove, V has shown aggro spewyness in the past. Theres enough busted straights and KJ to make it fine getting better than 2:1. You lose to 44 and 6x only, though its a decent amount of his range, you have the odds to call for sure.. If you're betting 175 to induce then it's fine, otherwise i'd bet like 250.

What are you ranging him on for 2/1 to be a profitable call?

Tightish 6x range: AxKx,Ax6x,AxKy,Ax6y,KK,KxJx,Kx6x,KxJy,Qx6x,JJ,Jx6x ,Tx6x,9x6x,8x6x,8x6y,7x6x,7x6y,66,6x5x,6x4x,6x5y,6 x4y,44 = 22% equity.

Even tighter 6x range: AxKx,Ax6x,AxKy,Ax6y,KK,KxJx,KxJy,JJ,8x6x,8x6y,7x6y ,7x6x,66,6x5x,6x4x,44 = 31% equity. Removing just AK from the range puts us at 4/1 dog getting 2/1.

I think a call here is slim at best, he certainly doesn't have the 'odds to call for sure' unless you're ranging him differently.

The thing is "aggro spewyness" is always situational, never a general thing. You can't say because player semibluff shoved the flop it means he would bluff raise the river. I would be more inclined to believe he can bluff river than a random player but not so much that I would be snapping him off without having seen him bluff raise a river before.

A lot of players get into trouble because they see an aggro/bluffy player and just assume he is bluffing all the time when most of those aggro players at least have the sense not to make enormous raises with 0% equity vs a player who has shown strength throughout the entire hand.

Hmm I guess we didn't have as much equity as I first thought.
I call anyway cause young middle eastern guy is always full of it

Edit: i think part of the problem stems from the river bet size, it's just about the right amount to induce a river shove bluff which we expect villain to be capable of, but we're not comfy with it and we lose value when he just flats.

Yeah, that's one of the problems with a raise preflop, b/b/b line. Might induce river shove bluffs if you size river bet too small.



....aaaand that was my first ever troll post. Felt good. Was considering leaving it there by itself to see if everyone would argue with me (ala ILCD). But then I felt like a douc$@%^# and that's not me.

To be explicitly clear, first sentence was sarcasm. That line does not ever induce bluffs.

JJ is a big part of his range imo. Results?

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using 2+2 Forums

I think I sign call here and expect to see KJ more than anything.
Expect villain to say, "I thought you had AK?!"

I like this against a somewhat competent reg, but all indicators point toward villain being a pretty big fish. And against fish I think getting 3 streets of value from Kx is pretty likely, so I don't like checking any street. b/b/b seems like the best line to me.

I agree with this, and think that it extends to poor players as well.

My thoughts exactly. I fold here but it's relatively close, and calling is probably only slightly -EV.

Well it looks like Tao wins this thread and NeverScurred comes in 2nd for being correct as well. I called but really wasn't happy with it.

Deciding factors that made me call in game:
I don't like putting 350 in with AA then folding for my last 450; if I'm gonna go bet bet bet then folding on river seems bad (probably a bad way to think about it).
I've seen this guy put lots of chips in the pot with less than premium hands. I've also been bluffed once before. He seems like the kind of guy who would LOVE to show another bluff in a big pot then laugh with the guy next to him about it.
He shows up with better here often, but it's a bluff often enough that it might be +EV to call. He also shows up with KJ and KQ once in a blue moon.

He showed 76o. Like Tao said, that's exactly how he would have played it (although I think he'd fold pre), and that's exactly how villain played it. After I mucked villain points at old guy and yells "I'm coming for your money NEXT!!" Lots of class. I said nice hand and walked out. Easily the most tilted I've ever been due to live poker. Thanks for the input guys. I don't think I played the hand badly, in fact I really like my line until the river, where I think b/folding MIGHT have been better (I still don't HATE the call but I'm sure there's a way to prove it was bad). I also might want to size my river bet different if I plan on b/folding. In game I just thought it would be super weak to just fold vs an aggro opponent but that's probably incorrect thinking.

Wasn't saying like it was totally ludicrous to see 6x play this way, more so the flat flop, flat turn, jam river for value. Now that I'm looking at it results oriented it def seems like a logical line.

I think personally the call pre was bad on villain's part, and then float flop? I mean, are we putting hero on exactly ATs+ or an air squeeze pre here? The reason 75 seems so much more believable is bc that is a hand that can turn or river nutted. 6x is a bluffcatcher, and calling otf after a raise from the sb pre, I mean, thats pretty leaky imo.

Turn is where it gets interesting. If we know that the third barrel is coming otr then we know we will have a decent SPR to just flat and shove over the river bet. I like to raise though, 1) it looks FOS, and 2) I'm setting up the river jam, not relying on hero to lead out for me otr. Maybe I play too fast? Certainly a leak in my game as I move from 1/2 to 2/5 I suppose. I just wait for the blatantly obvious nuts and overjam for 3x pot

We're conflating "average player logic" with "how I would have played that hand". The two are often wildly different (And if they aren't, you're probably not winning)

Grunch:

I don't know why we should ever think with 1-pair, even AA, we're going to get three streets of value from what appears to be a good Villain, without some serious pressure.

Additionally, 150BB is starting to get into awkward stack sizes for big pairs.

Against a good player, the moment the board pairs, you have to steel yourself and know that competent Villains will recognize that its a good situation to bluff.

I'm not saying you have to always slow down, or give up as soon as the board gets the slightest bit scary. I'm just saying, expect push back so you have your plans in place when it comes.

I do however think this river is a c/c instead of a b/f or b/c.

This might be a Villain who you should call when he shoves on the river. Let's put Villain on a range.

1) [KJ, JJ, AJ, QJ, TJ] are pretty unlikely. This Villain is not limping from the button with these hands. We cannot completely eliminate them from Villain's range, but they must be heavily discounted.

2) [66, 44, 64] are not only possible, but likely. This would be a very weakly played 44, but its not out of order.

3) [6x] possible, but unlikely. The 6 pairs on the turn and Villain doesn't raise. Given the size of the stacks remaining, I consider it terrible on Villain's part if he shows up with 6x here.

4) [22-77, not including 44 and 66] and [Air] Since there's really just 2 draws that missed, [75, 53], I'm not sure Villain has that many bluffs in his range. He has to be consciously floating you on the turn, knowing he's drawing to very few outs (and possibly drawing dead to KK), with the expressed plan of bluff-shoving on you on the river.

The problem for Hero with Villain's range here is combinatorically, Villain's bluffs only really add up to a pretty small part of his range, because Villain's range is so heavily skewed towards "nutz" [66, 44, 64, 6x] with basically no other value hands that can realistically be in his range.

Range:
? % [66, 44, 64, 6x]
? % [22-77 (!66, !44), 75, 53, random-stuff ]

Hero is getting $1010:$450, 2.25:1, 31% equity.

Hero is only beating a bluff here.

There are two questions:
1) Is Villain going to bluff here more then 31% of the time?
2) Is Villain going to play [6x] that passively on the turn?

I think this is a crying fold here.

I think your bet sizing is fine, but I would play it slightly different.

B/c the turn bigger ($200), you get a little more value in that you might lose on the river c/c. I would call a raise here and shove the river, which is how I would play KK (especially since betting $200 here sets us up to get stacks in by the river). If Villain shoves turn its another tough decision, I think a call is in order.

I then c/c the river here. You should be able to get your 3 streets of value here as Villain will be induced to bluff more frequently if you check, as opposed to bluff raising all in after you bet.