Quote:
Originally Posted by whickerda
Your play, with two stacks behind you that effectively cover, is not thin. It's very thickly negative EV.
You're talking about hands that are barely better than coin flipping against the maniacs range and yet crushed against the other player's ranges. Yeah, they're not getting involved very often but when they do it's going to be with premiums.
Since the maniac only has $63 you should wait for a spot to snap him off.
K8o is way better than flipping against an atc range. I have 56% equity! Every time both blinds fold I make .56*(3+63*2-5)-63 = $6.44.
If I take the advice to min-raise, which I like, I'm only risking $48 (Straddle counts as a raise, not another blind, so I can raise $23). If I lose the $48 every time, which I won't, the blinds need to collectively play back 6.44/48 = 13% of the time, or about 7% each.
That's pretty infrequent. I guess it depends totally what the blinds tendencies are like in this spot. IME they'll play waaaay too tight, but I'm not sure if they'll play that tight?
In the second hand, I'm tempted to play Q9s due to IO more than anything. If I flop any pair I'm crushing his continuing range. I'm just more worried about playing for pair value here with others in the hand, and the V could make a stupid raise to $100 or something. I know it's pretty loose, but that's why I'm making this thread.
I am curious what others think a breakeven calling/raising range looks like in this spot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PCCP
First off you say 21 white guy does it matter if you're white, black, Asian, etc.?
And I'd say fold both.
Raise something above A-9ss and call with QJss or KQ, KJ suited.
There are stereotypes associated with race and age which can affect others' play.
I assume you're talking about the second hand because that's obviously too tight for the first hand. It seems too tight for the second hand too, IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sommerset
Why on earth would we want to actively put ourselves in thin spots against a spewing drunk?
Please no "wait for a better spot" BS.
Why on earth would you pass up on $1 of EV just because next hand might be better?