Our LLSNL villains tend to play their hands face-up, but putting villains on sets is always difficult because:

1) sets are rare,

2) they can always have a set.

Yet many LLSNL villains still manage to give away that they have a set, and when I'm not in a hand I can often put them on it.

If we can get away from villains when they have sets, we can make a lot of money. So I'd like to gather some hands and find patterns. Whenever I see a villain turn a set face up (whether I'm in a hand or not), I plan on posting it here. And I'd love to see others who are interested do the same.

Above all, I want to look at bet-sizing, so specific hands/details are necessary. Here's one to start it off:

1/3 NL, 5-handed, late at night

Hero (400) raises to 15 with JJ, gets called by SB (covers) and BB (300). Both are aggressive and loose players.

Flop: (45) T65

SB checks

BB bets 10
--he can have anything here; he uses blocking bets a lot

Hero raises to $55 total

SB raises to $110 total

BB folds

--Hero stops and thinks for a while. I range him on sets and 78, and call $55 intending to fold if a 4 or 9 comes and station him otherwise. He's an aggressive player and I give him credit to bluff 78 for multiple streets here.

Turn ($265): T65 3

SB leads $110

Hero lights $110 on fire (part of me knew it, too)

River ($485) T653 9

Check-check, SB shows his obvious 55.

Here's what I missed: he can bluff 78, but he will never do it for $55 on top. It should've been super obvious, from his bet sizing, that he was reeling me in. If he wants to bluff 78 there, he does it for a much bigger raise. If I were playing my A game, I would've found a fold on the flop for a mere $55! Even if the board had a flush draw on it, I could've found a fold, because he wouldn't raise $55 with any draw, ever. He turned his hand face up, but I didn't see it in the moment, because I was tired and blinded by my favorite hand.

Lesson learned: villains will not min-raise 3! with draws. A min-raise 3! on this board (not super connected) is almost always a set.

It's worth noting that a 3-bet check-raise, when from a non-maniac/LAG, is pretty much always 2p+, not necessarily a set.
Here's a spot I was in about a month ago where I nearly folded bottom set, but called because I had decent equity against a straight, and sometimes Vs overvalue 2P.

One limp to hero with 77 who opens $15 (at 1/3, eff stacks $250, with a $70 short stack limping), SB (loose-passive Asian, who flatted from blinds with AA earlier) calls, BB folds. Flop J87r.
SB checks, SS bets $25, hero raises to $70, SB SHOVES, SB sigh calls (he's GII with any pair).

Hero puke-calls, and holds against J8 for SB (SS had AJ).



Put simply, it's not always a set, but it means they can beat AA if you're the PFR. (Or can beat AK if the board is A or K-hi)

This is definitely a leak but I tend to INSTANTLY fold with TPTK from aggression from anyone who is check-raising me.. I find alot of the times, check raisers have 2P+... ESPECIALLY if there is no flush-draw on hand..

I'd say pay attention to the limp-callers in EP.. Those are usually indicative of small PP and SC..

HH..

Villain($1,000, MP and stuck heaps) Old guy whos stuck like hell and tired...

Hero($1,000, in BB) Young, asian.

Villain raises $20 and CO calls.. I reraise from BB to $65 with QQ.. He calls..

Flop($157) 1074

He checks, I lead $95.. He calls

Turn($347) 2r, that brings a BDFD

He checks, I lead $200, and he INSTANTLY min-raises me... Naively, I call $400.

River($1147) Brick

He leads out $400.. This is so face-up value-towning me for a big pair...

Against nearly all typical 1/2-3/NL villains this is an easy flop fold. Doubtful SB is spazzing out with K10/A10 which is basically the best situation we hope for. This isn't 2/5-5/10. Even if you are good here, there are SO MANY more way more profitable opportunities at the low stakes games that this spot is not worth it to go after the small edge that you may possibly have.

Especially with the minraise on flop after he's already seen two opponents bet. Even if he had made a bigger raise 78 is a small part of his overall range for an unknown.

Very often when I hold a set against a PFR open raise and I am value towning him, most PFRs are always telling me, I am a sucker, luckbox, they have to pay me off here and end up paying me off.

Looking at my own hands where I held a set would be a great indication of what information "I leak"

As a side note, I would weigh a villain's raise OOP a lot more heavily toward sets than draws than I would from a villain that has position on me.....

No one's bet/3-betting with worse than JJ in the OP. The best hand you beat is AT. To think a 1/2 player is bet/3-betting TPTK is a level.

But to answer the question, for the most part they mess it up somehow. They either bet tiny to make sure they get called so they can show down a set and act like they did something great. Or they bet massive to protect their set. If someone is betting 60% pot otf and ott, it's more likely to be TPTK than a set.