Thread should definitely end here.

well said. I didn't think I was getting that great a price, but I guess its close. Felt like 1.25 to 1 ball park in game.


If id had equilab in front of me and found we are essentially flipping vs his range w some dead money in the pot then Id have been sick about it and called. Well.. I was and I did?

I don't like high variance flips against fish that will give there money away. I guess im just saying that because we're putting a buyin in the middle against God awful opposition, and we are behind villains range and probably going to lose a stack here it seems odd to say its a snap call.
add to it the read of "villain looks calm and confident", all the better spots we can find against bad players, and.. (and I don't think anyone is thinking about this) HOW HARD I REP AK..
that is a big deal. My hand looks like AK. In fact I think I usually have AK here as played. its a strange spot where im kind of range merging w top set and get over bet jammed on.

if you were in this spot with AK youd have that feeling that youre about to chop the pot w broadway AGAIN.

I said "I have AK straight" when I actually had top set. If you cant see whats strange and non automatic here or why I considered calling then we just dont think about the game the same way.

"Why did I ONLY open 5xbb from EP w a tight image and QQ?"

We don't have correct odds to draw against straight = it is possible to have a strong enough read to fold. My read was that he had it.

does noone go w their read in these marginal spots?
once I show my hand he either has me or not.

Is there a player on the planet good enough to fold here correctly but not incorrectly?
opinions on that?

I thought I was crushed and I was, and im not a nit, and im not psychic, and my ball park math said I was in the 2 to 1 against getting nowhere near 2 to 1.

I asked a man to flip a coin and id fold on heads, call on tails. He didnt get it out quick enough and I called. Are fish THAT hard to read?

I felt stupid all the way home. Maybe if youd been there and seen him youd think it was close.

maybe not, maybe im just psychic

Your op stated
Well, "in the absense of big reads" what do we have to rely on? The math. And others did that and showed that, based on a reasonable range, it's a profitable call.

Now you say you've a soul-read that he was nutted. Well, that changes things. For one, it changes the math, as it tightens the range. Of course you can fold given a soul read.

+1 for the snap call. Lots of hands in his range that we're ahead of, plus we have outs if were behind

Id forgotten about saying "in the absence of reads", good point.

Heres what ive come to believe about this spot;
1. When you have a strong value hand but raising with it would actually over rep the hand, we need pretty specific targets or should consider calling instead.
2. When you get that feeling we all get that we are about to chop a pot w broadway, accept we dont gave it, we are just calling for pot odds or not.
3. I need to embrace the variance or quit playing (yes I was thinking he very likely had it, but if you pokerstove this literally MOST of our 49% ish equity against a reasonable range, comes from our boat outs.

so I cant just say "I am not a nit or a psychic and nearly folded correctly" because equilab already understood (as I did) that hes gonna have AK a lot here. The combination of the times when I bink turn or river and times that he's got any other hand maje this a flip.
the pot odds make it a call.

I would do it again as played and im glad I asked and you all answered.

One more question:
If you see where im going, about reraising as early position preflop raiser on QJT actually over reps top set, can we consider just calling on the flop?

otherwise we tell a very convincing "seriously guy, I have AK" story and make it tough to make mistakes against our range.
"Over repping top set"

If villain is aggressive can it be ok to let him barrel off with his random Qx here or is there too much oppertunity to let combo draws get there/miss value from them?

Everyone seems fine w my line on the flop but it feels very strange to me and I have an intuition that its wrong.

thoughts?