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Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate

10-20-2017 , 10:18 PM
Trying to focus on some smaller hands, idea being that 15-30 BB pots aren't as exciting but obviously have a huge impact on win-rate.

Just got to room, sitting at new table, just opened. $1/3, everyone bought in for $300. I know a few of the regs, but none in this hand.

2nd hand since table opened, H in BB w/ Qs6h. UTG +1 limps for $3, everyone folds to BB, I check.

Flop ($7)
2d3s4s

H checks, V checks.

Turn ($7)
7h

Do you lead out here assuming you're obviously behind V's range but your range should easily be ahead of V's range? H has very little equity but should have a good amount of FE.

H bets $11, V flats.

River ($26)
Ac

Hero? This should be a great card for us to bet because we should have way, way more 5 in our range than V's. But we're also then pumping money into a pot w/ Q high on the river.

I know this isn't the most exciting of hands but I think little hands like this can have a huge impact on my game. Thoughts on Turn and River are appreciated, assuming pre & flop are standard.
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-20-2017 , 10:33 PM
check it down, but if you wanted to make a move, id bet flop, bet turn, bet river.
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-20-2017 , 10:40 PM
I don't think you'll get much insight out of playing a limped hand against a villain in LSL.

Mostly because in a limped pot the range is pretty much uncapped (could easily be a an interval from 15% to 80%). Yes, he's likely a bit stronger than you because he limped, but since you just sat down at the table, you have no idea what he plays AND you have no idea about his range, other than "its probably not top 15%".

As such, this is purely a guessing game.

Basically what I'm saying is - if you have no history on villain, it might be worth it to check it down to showdown, because knowing what he limps with is worth FAR more than winning a tiny pot (that you might not even win).

If you want to win the pot - just overbet on the flop, if you want information on the villain, I would just check it down to see what he plays.
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-20-2017 , 10:45 PM
leading and checking flop both fine
$11 on the turn in nonsensical, bet $5
obviously following through on this river
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-20-2017 , 11:48 PM
Setintostraight - good point on the value of seeing V's UTG+1 limping compared to the $7 pot.

Eholing - I don't understand how $11 is nonsensical. If I had a set, 2p, 1p or air I'd never bet less than $10 on a flop in $1/3. And I'm lost on how $5 into $27 is at all smart on the river. Asking to understand. Thanks.
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-20-2017 , 11:57 PM
Tomark - I fully agree check it down is standard. I guess the question is are these tiny pots worth pushing our FE in? $7 isn't much but 3, 4, 5 of these a night does boost the win rate.
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-21-2017 , 12:05 AM
$11 is too much on the turn. You could bet $5 and get the same result of a fold with the villain holding 2 overs. I'm never buying you had a 5 with your bet on the turn. Your problem on the river is that lots of villain will limp with Ax. They're never folding the river after they hit TP.
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-21-2017 , 12:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twitcherroo
Eholing - I don't understand how $11 is nonsensical. If I had a set, 2p, 1p or air I'd never bet less than $10 on a flop in $1/3. And I'm lost on how $5 into $27 is at all smart on the river. Asking to understand. Thanks.
I guess the sizing is mostly irrelevant, $11 is fine but i probably wouldn't. Never betting $5 otr, think the ace is the nut bluff card and would fire something like $21
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-21-2017 , 08:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eholeing
I guess the sizing is mostly irrelevant, $11 is fine but i probably wouldn't. Never betting $5 otr, think the ace is the nut bluff card and would fire something like $21
I bet exactly $21 OTR as, like you note, it really is the nut bluffing card, but, as Venice notes, a lot of folks can't/won't fold an A on the river. I led for $21, V raised to $50, H mucked, V showed a 5.
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-21-2017 , 10:10 AM
This type of mentality will never make you money. You are focusing on the wrong part of the game. If you want to become a winning player you got to change the way you look at the entire game of poker.
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-21-2017 , 10:23 AM
No, winning this pot is irrelevant to your win rate
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-21-2017 , 04:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GenghisKhan
This type of mentality will never make you money. You are focusing on the wrong part of the game. If you want to become a winning player you got to change the way you look at the entire game of poker.
Thanks for insight. Unfortunately I'm already a consistent winning player...
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-21-2017 , 04:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cicakman
No, winning this pot is irrelevant to your win rate
How so? Asking to understand, thanks.
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-23-2017 , 02:21 PM
Even though we've only seen one weak limper into the pot, I think I'm fine with just checking preflop and seeing a flop. In the past against very weak fit/fold players, I think I'd more opt to raise preflop and then cbet, but that line is just so well known now that I'm not sure it's profitable unless you're willing to do multiple barrels.

We don't exactly have 0 equity on this flop with our gutshot + over + backdoor flush. So I'd probably minbet $3. A lot of players will simply fold these nothing pots and move on with air (unlike raised pots which they might fight over more).

I don't hate the turn cbet but in order for it to be far more profitable I'd still just do a minbet $3; it has to get the job done far less than an overbet $11 to be profitable.

Kinda doubt we have much showdown value on the river, and this is a pretty scary card all around which a pair will have a hard time calling. I probably bet about a 1/2 PSB which doesn't have to work all that often to be profitable.

Course, I also have another rule: never bluff unknowns. It would probably be ok to just check / give up on all streets against an unknown.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-23-2017 , 02:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cicakman
No, winning this pot is irrelevant to your win rate
Overall, +1 to this, imo.

All of these little piddly pots are taxed so much to become meaningless anyways, with perhaps the sole exception of a little meta game (where you get to show that you are actually capable of betting air, although most people will figure out pretty quickly that is in a small pot and not in a huge pot).

In the long run, I doubt any of these pots make any dent whatsoever in your winrate, and most of your winrate revolves around making the correct decisions in big pots.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-23-2017 , 05:37 PM
I think winning smallish pots can be very helpful to one's winrate. This pot isn't just small though..it's astronomically tiny and bloating it up OOP here is a really bad play especially when you consider how pricey rake is in the live low stakes.
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote
10-24-2017 , 09:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
I think winning smallish pots can be very helpful to one's winrate. This pot isn't just small though..it's astronomically tiny and bloating it up OOP here is a really bad play especially when you consider how pricey rake is in the live low stakes.
+1
Small pot decisions make big impact on win rate Quote

      
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