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Small overpair on drawy board facing raise. Small overpair on drawy board facing raise.

07-23-2015 , 07:54 PM
UTG (Hero): young TAG Asian. Starting with 100BB.

MP: Young thin Indian-looking student, no glasses, black t-shirt. No history. Starting with about 35BB.

BTN/BB: forgot, assume unknown.

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Hero opens 4x with 99. MP calls. BTN calls, BB calls.

Flop: 356dd

Hero cbets half-pot 8BB. MP raises to about 30BB, essentially all-in. Two folds. Hero?

MP's range may be something like {Axdd, Kxdd, 33-QQ, 76, 54}. With the board, there's just tons of flush draws, some straight draws, smaller overpairs. I'm not sure how often villain semi-bluff raises here without reads.

I feel his range can be wide given the board, it's hard for me to quantify at the table what to do. Hero ends up shoving.
Small overpair on drawy board facing raise. Quote
07-23-2015 , 08:39 PM
Not exactly happy but villain's stack is too short to give up to an unknown villain. Against most reasonable ranges your equity is around 45%. Since it is going to be around 25BB to win 55BB your getting 2 to 1 on your money and it's clearly +EV to move in.
Small overpair on drawy board facing raise. Quote
07-23-2015 , 09:03 PM
When I'm at the table, how do I get better at estimating equity? Is it something I should be plugging into PokerStove off-the-table to get better experience with it?

Or do I just say, I'm getting 2-to-1, that sounds good enough.
Small overpair on drawy board facing raise. Quote
07-23-2015 , 09:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FloppyFelty
When I'm at the table, how do I get better at estimating equity? Is it something I should be plugging into PokerStove off-the-table to get better experience with it?

Or do I just say, I'm getting 2-to-1, that sounds good enough.
Yeah, plug some ranges into PokerStove off the table in spots you aren't sure about. Or get PokerCruncher for your phone, which does the same thing.

In this spot, you're actually getting almost 2.5:1 (calling 23 BBs to win 55 BBs), and an overpair is almost always going to have the required 30% equity vs. villain's range unless he's an uber-nit.
Small overpair on drawy board facing raise. Quote

      
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