I am playing 2/5 at Palm Beach Kennel Club, was at a full table until several players picked up. We are sitting 4 or 5 handed waiting for the game to be filled.

Villain is new to the table in the last 5 minutes. he's a 55yo white guy to my immediate right, we chatted a little bit about how bad the room is so he seems like he's played a bit. Not saying he's a shark or anything but rather a recreational player who has experience in a bunch of different poker rooms.

350 effective.

4 or 5 handed, I see a player behind me prematurely folding.

I open to 15 with A6cc from utg, folds to BB who calls.

($30) Flop: AQ6r.

bb checks, i bet 25, bb calls in rhythm.

($80) Flop: AQ6r 9. this 9 puts a flush draw out there.

bb checks, i bet 55, bb c/r to 160, hero???

this looks super strong, but then again I have a very strong hand as well all things considered. Am i committed here? He has another 160ish left.

without reads idk if he is overplaying a hand like AK or AJ, or if he picked up two pair with Q9, 96s, or A9. the only hands for value that he has on the flop that c/c flop and c/r turn for value are AA, QQ, 66, and AQ. AA and QQ seem unlikely given no re-raise preflop, and i have blockers to 66 and AQ. I dont think he's 3betting me with AQ this early with no reads given we were having friendly table talk. in fact, i dont think he's ever bluffing in this spot. The A is not of the flush draw suit so he could have picked up a FD to go along with his AXs but i dont see him taking this line with those hands all that often.

if we are commited here, i think shoving is best so we can get value now from Q9 type hands before a counterfeit card comes on the turn, and i dont see him c/r/folding a big A.

If he is never bluffing fold : AQo, A9o, QQ, Q9s, A6o, 66
Someone should stove it, am on my phone.
69 in his range is wishful thinking.


Puukeeeee

we could probably give him some Q9o
we can probably discount some QQ
and we may be able to add a combo or 2 of AK as he could think that is the nuts. i seen some old guys overplay top pair type hands.

anyone have stove? i have a mac.

treating his c/r OTT as an all-in, we're calling 265 to win 445. so we need 37%

against the range you prescribed, we only have 23%. if we include Q9o, however, our equity jumps to 39%. so if we discount some QQ, and add in an AK, that should prob push us over 40% equity.

This is gross.

I just can't imagine he's going bananas with a hand worse then ours.

I probably dump the hand until I get a better read that.

Is your stack $350 or is the effective stack $350 because of Villain? If your stack is only $350, I am probably just mucking utg. I usually open any suited ace from any position but I am always 200bb deep or more where I play. If you are only $350 deep, top up to the table max or move down in stakes.

As played, it looks like a turn fold although in the moment I would probably just spite jam at that stack size. Maybe Q9 is in his range but that seems like a slight stretch. This is definitely a dumb spot.

his stack is definitely 350. i am over the table max (brag).

Well played to turn. I would sigh shove, all things considered. If he's tricky (which unfortunately seems unlikely), he could have picked up a lot of outs with that turn (JTss, KTss type hands). Def a very annoying cooler if we are beat but not folding. I might bet a little bigger on turn, but it prob doesn't matter too much.

I wouldn't put him on AQ or 99, as this is typically a re-raise pre when you're only 5 handed, and 99 typically don't see a turn with 2 overs.

I'm guessing he has Q9 or A+flush draw, or a big combo draw (J10s, 87s). A9 and 66 are a possibility, but that's the only combo of the many hands he could be raising with here that have us beat.

I'm just putting him in here.

I lolshove, we may be beat (especially if we're against OMC), but no way I'm folding 5-handed two-pair for 70bb effective. All sorts of wacky weaker two pair will show up along with medium strength TP type hands that want to "punish the flush draw".

Easy all-in.

I'd also go $20 pre-flop.

Didnt realize we were so short and this is 2/5. Fair enough

It's PBKC... You opened to 15. Average 55yo rec player who shows up at PBKC is never folding pre. He is also not folding a pair on the flop because you could be c-betting and even if you have him beat, he can hit his second pair.

Vs. an unknown rec player when you open $15 and he is BB with 350 eff, i'm getting it in here most of the time.

This is one of those spots where you gotta go with initial reads based on BI amount, the way he talks, the way he looks, etc. And a solid read is required to make this a fold.

IMO his range is....

AQ, A6, A9, Q9, 69, Q6s, AK, 66, 99, pair+bdfd, sdbdfd, + reduced combos (because it would be wonky as hell to play it this way) AA, QQ, AJ, Q6o, and a few% of rando crap.

Haven't stoved it, but off the top of my head that looks like a snap ship getting it in ahead without having to worry about odds.

I'm thinking either a turned 2 pair or a flopped set/2 pair that is worried about a back door flush draw. He might play a big ace this way as well, but I think he would just call turn given our aggression.

Probably looking at A9 or Q9. If we think he is somewhat competent he is probably calling with second pair no kicker OTF less often than he is calling with A9. Eff stacks are short enough that I don't hate shoving here, although I think he might fold a big ace to a shove and we want to keep his Ax hands in.

I think call/shove river keeps his range widest. Shoving here for another 160 is probably fine though. Folding feels right but also kind of makes me want to vomit. I hate playing top/bottom pair.

Is it possible our read is off and he's actually raising AX suited here, knowing that he maybe has fold equity and doesn't hate getting it in with a redraw to the NF? If we think he might be willing to make this play then definitely shove.

i mean it is POSSIBLE, but he hadn't been talking to anyone at the table except me, and we were being really friendly. with his smallish sizing, it doesn't seem like he's "punishing the draws" it seems more like he's inviting them to continue. i just dont see this guy sitting down, being jovial with me, then suddenly semibluff check/raise me on the turn with a baby suited ace vs my strong perceived range of hands containing AA, QQ, 66, 99, AQ, A9, and A6.

nevertheless, i stuffed it in anyway bc i have a hard time folding hands of this strength with such small effective stacks without a good read, and he quickly calls with AQ. as soon as he said "call" i knew was beat. after the fact i thought maybe with the info that i had (old guy who is not bluffing) was enough to justify a fold, but perhaps i'm just being results oriented.... also i thought if he was a bad recreational player who overplays hands he would just c/r gii otf with some big aces. which means the hands he x/c's flop and c/r turn are reserved for the nutted hands on the flop or hands that the 9 improved him.

Didn't want to know the answer and not being results oriented...a few points:

1. Given villain's description and stack size....if we're thinking he might be on a pair+fd on turn then villain always calls/shoves stack/min raise in that spot not raise 3x (leaving him with $150 behind) so think we can take that out of his range. If we're deeper then it's a different story.
2. It's very highly unlikely he takes this line ever with air.
3. Ax is not taking this line...would simply just call down.
4. Q9 is somewhat of a stretch with him calling a somewhat friendly player down from BB...69 and Q6 is taken out of his range until I see him playing every hand.
5. Simply should've just asked him if he had AQ or A9...probably would've given some indication.
6. His line looks exactly like AQ or A9...


Think I'd have to find a fold with given information...