Your bluff range looks exactly like what you have

A frustrated AQ, maybe JJ. Some random bullchit that wants me to fold real bad.

Does a set or top two really overpot that dry ass turn heads up? No one called the flop with j10.

By the river you're saying I HAVE two pair or a set. And I simply wouldn't believe you, if you did i'd say well played.

Still not sure you know your bluff range here. Or exactly how often your opponent is folding compared to calling

AT, T9.

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Without a doubt. Betting the turn here is lighting money on fire.

(If you are so sure that you are right, why did you post the hand in the first place?)

I wasn't sure, wanted outside opinions.

Turn bet was too large, and I could have gotten snapped by KQ or KT. With history with this villain, I now know why this worked this time, why it might not have worked, and why it is less likely to work with different holdings.

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I don't mind the turn bet to be honest but I think it should be sized down to 60-70% pot. Which is what a strong value hand would bet, recognizing the threat of any draws is slim and not wanting to fold out worse kings.

If you're telling the story you have a premium holding which is what you are telling when you raise 7.5x from EP then it fits in fine with this turn. The queen only helps one of his hands (KQ) and two of yours (QQ or KQ). We can discount QQ from his range but most of the time it wont help anyone so you would normally barrel AK or AA here so you are fine to do so with QJ as well.

The river is where I saw a problem. Betting that river to a thinking player is saying you have a set or top two which is rare and likely to turn out being a bluff as often as it is a set or top two.

A good river card to barrel would of been any 8 or under or any ace IMO.

On the river, there is some villain specific strategy. I know that I am perceived to be a tight player. This means (from villain's perspective) that my 3 barrel hands are going to be very strong or missed draws. With this board texture and this bet size, the only thing that would make sense is a monster since no obvious draws missed. Now he is smart enough to sense that something is up (and my turn sizing likely contributed to this) but my hand blocked his strongest holdings. If the bet was smaller or he had KQ, I think he calls it off based off of his tank. My triple barrels are rare, and I overbet somewhat frequently with nutted hands because there are a ton of stations in our game, so I think the story made sense here (other than the turn sizing, which I agree 75% would be much better).

If we bet the turn, which I think we both agree 70% pot or so is fine, then we should do so with the intent of barreling river, no? If you give me the benefit of the doubt that I know second pair is never good, then it is either check the turn and hope to improve on the river or set up the river bluff on the turn with a bet.

Can't know 2nd pair isn't good from a single flop bet and call

That's where you're wrong, kiddo. *fingerguns*

Been playing home games with him for 15 years, pretty strong idea of his ranges and tendencies.

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So he is folding all pairs under King to half pot sized flop bet. And you feel it necessary to 3 barrel him....lmao

He is calling pre (and flop) with k-4s, but snap folding 77 on this flop.

Why barrel this guy ever? Most exploitable player in history of game.

So your bluffing exactly to fold exactly Kx,

We agree he is calling KQ,K10. And doesn't have AK.

You are simply risking way to much to get KJ to fold and Kx.

Him snap folding A8s,108s,98s, 87s, j8s,q8s, and all other BS 8xs hands he has on flop. Is enough profit for me. He is literally folding 84% of flops (I put in donkey suited defend range). Why on earth are we ever continuing and risking money past flop? Our cbet is printing cash.

It's more the way he called pre and flop that makes me confident he had Kx.

But what do I know, I've only played with him for 15 years. I'm sure a person on the internet knows best.

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So are we making this bluff for balance? As stated before.

Or we using some crazy live read (which I can get behind)?

Your changing your reasoning alot.

Not much about your thought process makes much sense. And is very inconsistent.

On a GTO level, your all over place. On explotative level it is super thin, and not necessary. Given he doesn't defend nearly enough postfix and is superwide preflop.

You never answered question. Why are you bluffing in this spot if he isnt defending wide enough postflop?

You have narrowed his range amazingly on flop. Yet, haven't really given accurate assessment of your fold equity.

To be fair this is a good point.

We do not have to balance if villain is so unbalanced. We just exploit and I didn't realize it but you're killing him with a one-and-done flop cbet.

On river how many combos of KQ/KT does he have compared to KJ/KX?

1. You aren’t playing solid tag. This isn’t an insult since you are trying to exploit your villain which is fine. I’m not saying your strategy is bad against this villain but you aren’t tag if you are just 3 barreling essentially your entire range on this texture. I wouldn’t be exploitatively over-folding against someone who I see is barreling second pair.

2. Against a solid tag opening +1 to 7.5x bb’s I wouldn’t play KJ out of position, definitely not KJo.

More to the point:

3. Against a solid tag pro I’m not folding KJ, esentially the top of my range, on almost any river. On a T river I might fold to this sizing since I can now have some more two pair combos and it’s just not a great runout.

4. Why am I calling KJ OOP pre for 7.5 bb’s if I’m going to fold TPTK on a reasonably clean runout? The odds of flopping two pair or better is two percent. I’m OOP so I’m not going to over-realize my equity. I’m going to check fold a lot of flops where I miss and then also fold when I make my hand? I just don’t see that as a profitable strategy. It’s either a fold pre or a call on the river.

Against a rec this is usually an easy fold on the river but against an tag pro it’s a different spot.