2/5 game 3 limpers and H Ad4d in CO.. I open to 35 and btn 3b to 90 with 250 behind ive played with v before and I expect him to be 3b with TT+ and AKo+

So there is 145 in pot 55 for me to call that's 2.63:1 and against his range I am 30.7% to win... so should I just fold here since there's not much money behind and I'm going to basically have to flop either an ace or draw to continue? Or call because I'm getting a good price. Also that number is for my hand to win at showdown what about just the flop? I'm so confused

This isn't really a math question... There's so many things to consider here... But in general, I'd say just fold.

You're mostly hoping to smash flops - i.e., 44x (and winning against an overpair), or A4x (and winning against AK). But both situations are very rare. You can win some by flopping a flush draw and getting V to occasionally fold to a shove, but that will help only a small amount.

Flopping Axx is pretty meh - you might pick up a bet, but you'll also lose a good amount of the time. Your implied odds will be pretty bad with the wheel draw, so you'll probably just want to fold those flops. And flops you don't connect with you'll be forced to fold in general.

I don't see how you can profitably call the 55 in this spot.

If you're getting 2.63:1, you only need 27.5% equity to call. 1/3.63, or 55/200 = .275. If this were an AI situation, and you were sure he has that specific range, then you'd print money by calling.

What you're talking about when it comes to seeing the actual flop and continuing is a discussion on equity realization... or how often you'll be able to see a showdown w/out folding or forfeiting your equity. To get a mathematical gauge on that, you'd have to take into account how often you expect V to c/bet, barrell, etc... or put $ in the pot at some point and compare it to the % of board textures you'll continue with. It's hard to pinpoint precisely, but based on game play, in this situation, I'd just fold to the 3!.

Preflop equity is correlated with how "good" your hand is, but there are a lot of other factors to consider when deciding whether to play a hand here. If you call, you're mostly hoping to extract money post-flop when you flop something good. So what you most care about is how likely you are to flop something that can extract money and how much money there is to extract. (This is what makes set mining so profitable in the right situations: a set is both strong and well concealed, so it can extract from a lot of other hands.)

You can compare your equity to the equity of shoving and it'll be accurate for that. But your total EV will consist of your FE plus your equity-when-called multiplied by the chance you're called.

As pointed out above, figuring out exactly what multiple you need to call is more art than science and is mostly developed with experience.

Here the pot is $145 and it's $55 to call with $250 back. You're total IO sum to about $400 or a bit less than eight times the call. That's not enough potential win to make up for the vast majority of times that you just lose your $55 (you should be thinking in terms of roughly 30x, give or take depending on the situation). So calling is out.

You should also evaluate jamming (there's really no point in raising less than a jam), in which case you'll be putting in $300 to win $400, needing 43% equity.

Since you have only 31% equity, jamming won't be profitable unless you can count on him to fold at least some of his range.

If you jammed and he called, you'd win $400 31% and lose $300 69% for a total EV of
(0.31 * $400) - (0.69 * $300) = -$83

Jamming would be profitable if
Fold% * $145 - (1 - Fold%) * 83 > 0

Which is true if he'll fold more than around 36% of the time.

There are 39 combos in TT+, AK (considering the card removal effects of your A4s). To fold 36%, he'd have to fold more than 14 combos. That would be TT, JJ, and at least two combos from QQ+, AKo.

It's very unlikely V will fold that much, so jamming isn't profitable either.

From a "math" perspective it's not that simple because you're not all-in. Playability is much more important than comparing showdown equity to pot odds.

When you flop nothing you are forced to relinquish your equity against his range because you'll often be facing a bet without odds to continue.

You'll rarely be able to win pots by bluffing because his range is strong, unless he plays extremely face-up and always value bets his strong hands and check/folds his weak ones.

When you do flop something you will mostly get action from hands that beat you. You very rarely flop a value hand that is ahead of ranges that he continues with. Your pre-flop showdown equity is only if his entire range gets to the river with you, but in general he will be able to throw away hands that have a poor chance of winning after the flop and continue with hands that have a good chance of beating you.

@ case, there's a great FE calc on rcp.