silly metagame spot, thoughts
02-24-2015
, 02:58 PM
Kx or some other pair that Villain was trying to turn into a bluff.I have a problem with this play though because that is not the given rationale for it. I am struggling to make sense of the OP's given rationale, which is why I asked him to expand in my last post.
02-25-2015
, 03:58 AM
Quote:
He floats alot to steal ott and will follow through otr, this is an excellent spot to do so and spr is still pretty high...
How often and with what kinds of hands will he do this out of position?
...free $$$ :-)
Not really. The problem as I see it is that on this kind of board, what makes it a good board to bluff is that you have to contend with the fact that he has a lot of value hands as well as bluffs. So, to me at least, this is a spot where actually you don't want his bluffing frequency to be high because you want to be able to make a good laydown. On different boards where it's hard for him to have a value hand, THEN you probably want him to be bluffing more often so you can look him up more easily.
I mean, the turn hits so many draws, and that combined with the limp/call preflop means it's hard to think of a hand that he can show up with that needs to bluff. And even if you can, for him to have enough bluffs that it's profitable to continue, you need him to have a LOT of bluffs, because he can have a lot of value hands and you have RIO on the turn.
River bluff raises are virtually nonexistent at LLSNL, so I expect he chalks it up to trying to bluff me off the nuts and thereby isn't deterred from bluffing similar spots in the future...
My question here was not about the need to raise ever. It is about the need to raise with specifically AA with no spade. As AsianNit pointed out, you probably could choose weaker hands to bluff with here, and if you think AA is strong enough that you don't want to fold it, you can use that to bluff catch. At some point, the metagame has to give you some kind of actual EV to be worthwhile, and I feel like if you've metagamed him into a spot where AA is a profitable call here, you should just call. You must have some other hands in your range you can use to bluff with. And in particular, if you're going to bluff-raise with AA, you should at least have the A so you block the nuts.
That's what I was unsure of, hence this post.
How often and with what kinds of hands will he do this out of position?
...free $$$ :-)
Not really. The problem as I see it is that on this kind of board, what makes it a good board to bluff is that you have to contend with the fact that he has a lot of value hands as well as bluffs. So, to me at least, this is a spot where actually you don't want his bluffing frequency to be high because you want to be able to make a good laydown. On different boards where it's hard for him to have a value hand, THEN you probably want him to be bluffing more often so you can look him up more easily.
I mean, the turn hits so many draws, and that combined with the limp/call preflop means it's hard to think of a hand that he can show up with that needs to bluff. And even if you can, for him to have enough bluffs that it's profitable to continue, you need him to have a LOT of bluffs, because he can have a lot of value hands and you have RIO on the turn.
River bluff raises are virtually nonexistent at LLSNL, so I expect he chalks it up to trying to bluff me off the nuts and thereby isn't deterred from bluffing similar spots in the future...
My question here was not about the need to raise ever. It is about the need to raise with specifically AA with no spade. As AsianNit pointed out, you probably could choose weaker hands to bluff with here, and if you think AA is strong enough that you don't want to fold it, you can use that to bluff catch. At some point, the metagame has to give you some kind of actual EV to be worthwhile, and I feel like if you've metagamed him into a spot where AA is a profitable call here, you should just call. You must have some other hands in your range you can use to bluff with. And in particular, if you're going to bluff-raise with AA, you should at least have the A
so you block the nuts.That's what I was unsure of, hence this post.
02-25-2015
, 08:30 AM
Quote:
How often and with what kinds of hands will he do this out of position?
Quote:
Not really. The problem as I see it is that on this kind of board, what makes it a good board to bluff is that you have to contend with the fact that he has a lot of value hands as well as bluffs. So, to me at least, this is a spot where actually you don't want his bluffing frequency to be high because you want to be able to make a good laydown.
Not really. The problem as I see it is that on this kind of board, what makes it a good board to bluff is that you have to contend with the fact that he has a lot of value hands as well as bluffs. So, to me at least, this is a spot where actually you don't want his bluffing frequency to be high because you want to be able to make a good laydown.
Quote:
I mean, the turn hits so many draws, and that combined with the limp/call preflop means it's hard to think of a hand that he can show up with that needs to bluff. And even if you can, for him to have enough bluffs that it's profitable to continue, you need him to have a LOT of bluffs, because he can have a lot of value hands and you have RIO on the turn.
Quote:
My question here was not about the need to raise ever. It is about the need to raise with specifically AA with no spade. As AsianNit pointed out, you probably could choose weaker hands to bluff with here, and if you think AA is strong enough that you don't want to fold it, you can use that to bluff catch. At some point, the metagame has to give you some kind of actual EV to be worthwhile, and I feel like if you've metagamed him into a spot where AA is a profitable call here, you should just call. You must have some other hands in your range you can use to bluff with. And in particular, if you're going to bluff-raise with AA, you should at least have the A so you block the nuts.
| ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation |
| 2,464 trials (Exhaustive) |
board: T97 K |
| Hand | Pot equity* | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| AdAc | 57.18% | 1,409 | 0 |
| 22-66, 88, As2s-As8s, AsJs, QsJs, QsJx, QxJs, JsTx, 8s7x | 42.82% | 1,055 | 0 |
AA no spade is equivalent to 88, JJ:
| ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation |
| 2,376 trials (Exhaustive) |
| board: T97K |
| Hand | Pot equity* | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| JdJc | 62.56% | 1,473 | 27 |
| 22-66, 88, As2s-As8s, AsJs, QsJs, QsJx, QxJs, JsTx, 8s7x | 37.44% | 876 | 27 |
| ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation |
| 2,200 trials (Exhaustive) |
| board: T97K |
| Hand | Pot equity* | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8d8c | 54.91% | 1,202 | 12 |
| 22-66, As2s-As8s, AsJs, QsJs, QsJx, QxJs, JsTx, 8s7x | 45.09% | 986 | 12 |
River equity is as follows:
*
| ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation |
| 53 trials (Exhaustive) |
| board: T97K8 |
| Hand | Pot equity* | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| AdAc | 45.28% | 24 | 0 |
| 22-66, 88, As2s-As8s, AsJs, QsJs, QsJx, QxJs, JsTx, 8s7x | 54.72% | 29 | 0 |
So...you were right, looks like turning my hand into a bluff without As otr is bad on this runout, assuming this range is unweighted.
but is THAT a reasonable assumption, given his turn donk? He should be c/r his made hands.
02-25-2015
, 12:54 PM
Is the board T95K8 as you say in the OP, or T97K8 as you say in your last post? It makes a pretty big difference.
What is the purpose of those equity calcs? Is that the range you think villain bets the river with? The range he bet/calls the river with?
Something you should be considering in your analysis is the fact that you cbet a very textured 4 way flop, so you can't really ever have air (if you can have AQo etc here, it's a pretty big leak). A tough reg should know this and thus it becomes a worse spot for him to continue with bluffs. If you took the flop HU everything you say is valid, but here your perceived range is significantly stronger, so he's going to be folding 22-66 etc. pretty often if he is a good thinking reg as you describe.
I would question how good villain really is if he's limpcalling QJo/JTo/87o pre, but I guess there are people who can overcome those kinds of mistakes by playing well postflop.
95K8 as you say in the OP, or T97K8 as you say in your last post? It makes a pretty big difference.What is the purpose of those equity calcs? Is that the range you think villain bets the river with? The range he bet/calls the river with?
Something you should be considering in your analysis is the fact that you cbet a very textured 4 way flop, so you can't really ever have air (if you can have AQo etc here, it's a pretty big leak). A tough reg should know this and thus it becomes a worse spot for him to continue with bluffs. If you took the flop HU everything you say is valid, but here your perceived range is significantly stronger, so he's going to be folding 22-66 etc. pretty often if he is a good thinking reg as you describe.
I would question how good villain really is if he's limpcalling QJo/JTo/87o pre, but I guess there are people who can overcome those kinds of mistakes by playing well postflop.