First completion of BB to match the straddle is questionable, but fine if itīs a limpy table or only small raises are expected.
as played, we need to call 19 to win 82, we get over 4 to 1 closing the action and letīs give those guys ridicolously tight ranges for a live game for the sake of the argument:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
4h5h | 22.59% | 134,302 | 3,465 |
12% | 32.15% | 185,859 | 15,424 |
5%-20% | 23.74% | 134,866 | 16,498 |
5%-30% | 21.51% | 121,867 | 15,752 |
preflop equities arenīt the end all be all, but we have a pretty clear maths call here, you can argue against numbers if you want, but I just refuse to believe pre is a mistake after completing. maybe close, but not a mistake, not BAD, not a TRASH hand etc, and even if itīs a mistake (which numbers would argue against), itīs only a pretty tiny one.
postflop is perfectly fine. there is 250 in the pot when it gets back to us, we have 715 behind, c/r is good. and now people wanna fold even AFTER c/raising against his shove, really? he all of a sudden has A3, 63 and 22 a lot here after opening UTG?
Ok, this is absolutely ridicolous and illogical, simulations should not even be needed here, but still, letīs play devilīs advocate and give him all these very unrealistic combos of A3suited, 55, 44 and 22 with only AA as overpair and only one AKhh
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
4h5h | 35.33% | 5,398 | 396 |
AA, AdKd, As3s, 22, 55, 44, Ad3d, Ac3c, Ah3h | 64.67% | 10,046 | 396 |
even against that (insane) range itīs a call, against anything normal we are a decent favourite.
ah wtf, he certainly has all 63 suited combos as well in his UTG opening range and is otoh such a nit that he only stacks off with one overpair and one flushdraw:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
4h5h | 31.79% | 6,079 | 432 |
AA, AdKd, As3s, 22, 55, 44, Ad3d, Ac3c, Ah3h, 6s3s, 6c3c, 6d3d, 6h3h | 68.21% | 13,289 | 432 |
even then itīs a call.
Honestly, we are getting to a point where people advocate folding hands in Holdem Iīd be pretty tempted to get in in PLO, itīs nittery taking to a whole new level by some.
in my humble opinion.
edit: sorry, didnīt see button shoved. makes my postflop rant a lot less relevant now, but still not a fold I believe. we get even better odds to call, there is an additional 215 dead money in the pot from PFR as well. itīs closer now though, but really still not close.
Last edited by sauhund; 09-07-2017 at 03:46 AM.