Ok, now turn that around, you like this $1800 river bluff against an unknown?

I mean without reads, yeah it's not optimal I agree with you. I am not saying that I would ever take that line but against certain people it may be the right play.

Is check/calling flop and turn standard for hero here? Why? Not many seem to be picking on that play, but to me it seems terrible unless villain is known to be aggressive. A lot of worse hands with high equity will check back, and we get information which is often overrated but not worth nothing.

What happens when I ship on you OTT?

I really do hate reverse HH. It's basically always "look at how awesome I am and how stupid my opponent is"

Bluffing Vs off FHs isn't long term profitable play. Congrats on the win

Yeah, it's fairly standard. I mean, this deep it's a really tough place to be in OOP when your x/r is called and you could be up against a naked As that can easily rep big.

Edit: We can donk any street with 44, but I don't like an x/r at any point.

Super easy snap fold?

That wasn't my intention at all. I thought that this would give me the best perspective of the hand instead of people just flaming and saying "spew, spew, spew!"

Guarantee that this way provided more analysis and useful information than if I posted the hand from my perspective

This is suboptimal for a number of reasons. One major one being we are giving up our equity of boating up when our opponent has a flush.

What about leading? I know I was advocating a x/r earlier but I don't really like it. I think it's a small overplay. I only brought it up because I don't like or understand the x/c line. My standard line in similar spots is leading. Villain has a lot of hands in his range that will just give up such as AJ no diamond, or check back with equity like AxJ, and there are a lot of hands in others' ranges that are checking to the raiser and have decent equity like TTx.

Edit: Note that I'm considering V essentially unknown here. "TAG" isn't much of a meaningful read to me as I'm assuming a pretty small sample size.

I'm a huge fan of looking for inelastic calling ranges, but this board ran out exactly wrong for that. If the flush or the fourth flush card hit OTR, THAT gives you an inelastic calling range (V was either drawing the flush or not, and if he was, he will most likely pay off, despite the paired board, if he was not, he is snap folding to a nickel bet).

Not saying the lower sets aren't inelastic, it's just they were gonna call, raise, or what have you anyway, so I'm not looking at them when deciding whether or not V has an inelastic range OTR.

As I said in the other thread, this bet/bet/overbet line is almost always spew, thank you OP for providing another example that it is, indeed, spew. I did say in the other thread that I thought it would be a better bluff if OP in that thread could overbet the pot by more chips, and apparently, after reading most of the responses ITT, I was right.

It's funny, I always laugh inside when I see it, and snap it off so fast my chips beat theirs into the pot. I suppose that means it would be a great play with the nuts against me, it just hasn't happened yet. I suppose most people just convince themselves to go for at least "normal" value with the nuts. Geez, I hope THAT doesn't become a "thing". I would lose my best bet sizing tell....

without the As what were you going to do if the river didn't pair the board?

I can honestly say that I did not expect him to have 44. I saw a spot where he should be folding close to 100% of the time and I shipped knowing that I can rep KK/99 even though it's only 4 combos. I should have bet more OTF for sure.

Check back. I was expecting a fold OTT a bunch but once this card comes it's a good spot to ship when he checks

I disagree completely. Reverse HH's are a great opportunity to question our own beliefs.

I think most of us just assumed Hero was a decent thinking player. Against that kind of player it is pretty obvious Villians river play is very much +EV (though not necessarily higher EV than betting a smaller amount)

Great job OP!

No it's not and that's where I think the hand went downhill. Aside from the reverse HH and bull**** reads, "hero" should have check/raised the flop and barreled the turn hard. The way the flop is, I would be comfortable calling a 3! and shoving brick turns, though I don't expect to get 3! on the flop with something as weak as AQo. Versus a spewy villain we can GII with enough equity on the flop if he wants to overplay/gamble AK and AA type hands. We are only in terrible shape vs. KK and 99.

But it's just not "very much +EV"... Even those of us who said "snap fold" are going to occasionally say F it and just call it off here. Never ever ever can we expect to fold out flushes and boats as much as we need to. Added to the fact that we have some equity in checking back here (AsX hands), it's no good. Keep in mind that most of the hands that beat us on this river are very strong - flushes and full houses. None of these middling pairs and such.

FWIW - I think if you are going to bluff this river, you've gotta make it count. Considering *that* a bluff was made, I like the sizing.

Against an unknown, we shouldn't be planning to just get it in for 400BBs with bottom set on a monotone board. I don't like a x/r at all. I'm good with a lead at any point though.

I'm not looking to get it in and I'm not expecting to get 3! on the flop often at all, I'm just saying... The reads are bs and anecdotes. How are we $2300 deep and readless? It's a fairytale hand.

That said, I still think flop is a clear check/raise for value. If we are not c/r bottom set 450 BB's deep then what are we? It can't just be the nuts. NFD is too risky this deep. Baby flushes - sure - but I think bottom set is in there as well.

The problem with reverse HH is that no one will ever paint a realistic picture of oneself.

The real read of V in this hand should be:

Villain - spewish looking guy who has been known to make really weird bluffs after he builds up a huge stack. Hasn't been around lately, most likely because he's broke. Loves to chat about poker at the table, probably thinks he's the best player ever.

Then obviously it's a snap call on river.

You win, OP. You are the greatest player ever .

so OP did you post this to ask if the bluff was good or not? I don't think it was, considering a monotone flop and a paired board.

Luckily the villain was either playing with scared money or he was under rolled for the game (and had a good portion of his bankroll in front of him) which is probably why he played it so passively (especially not leading out on the flop or c/r'ing it).

I think most rec's are calling the river all day though but with no reads it was probably not a great idea.

What some of you are also missing is that OP is leveling himself.

Level 1:

-V will not fold FH (Baluga Theorem)

Level 2:

-Therefore H will not bluff someone holding FH and only value bet with better than FH.

Level 3:

-Because H will not bluff someone with FH, H must be betting better than FH, and therefore V will fold his FH.

Level 4:

-Because V thinks that H will only bet with better than FH (nuts), therefore H will bluff.

Sure...this HH was real you said?

A lot of speculation going on with very little data to support any of it... IMO you would need to have a very specific history of seeing villain shove to get max FE or max value with missed draws or made flushes on paired boards at showdown to make this call. Otherwise you need to be leading the river for value and folding to a raise.

Ha, well done OP. I love the river as played and think it's very creative.

That said, I don't love how you got there on flop + turn and think those streets are a bit spewy. I like it with AsXx because you block villain from having the nut flush, and when you're this deep, it really does become a battle of the nuts (as evidenced by everyone folding 44 on the river!), and of course, with As in our hand, hero can never have the nuts. With such deep stacks and position on hero, with AsXx you could consider bet/bet/shoving as a 3x barrel bluff with your blocker against the right villain (and a decent % you actually make the nuts and get to value bet). As played, you were lucky to see a paired river as that turns all of villains' flushes, including nut flushes, into bluff catchers, though I do think he'll often raise the nut flush on an earlier street. It just so happened that the river paired + hero did not have a flush. But I think that's super unusual. Like the river only pairs, what, ~25%, and I think flushes are ~85% of his range. Said another way, this actual hand was probably an unlikely edge case in which hero folds all rivers except the case 4 to a villain shove, and the nut flush blocker wouldn't change anything.

That said, very interesting hand and very interesting use of position with 500BB stacks.

Sorry man, but that's super spew.

Check/raising the flop oop and taking a line to get 500BB all-in with bottom set on a monotone board is a huge mistake.