Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
The people saying "his line makes no sense, so call"...
That's an oversimplification. I don't think anyone is saying that.
I think people are saying it's a difficult spot. Like I've said, I would (definitely tank) fold in game for all the reasons you and others are saying, but it does feel weak/tight. The general philosophy for folding here is "he always has it." But I'm not sure that's true. His bet sizing on earlier streets is suspect. His value range is incredibly thin. I think it's very close, and I'd have to admit that part of the reason I would fold is to lower variance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Willy, what purpose would an "aggressive TAG (redundant) reg" have for overbet shoving the river when there is 0 difference in FE between a $500 bet and an $1860 bet here? I disagree that Hero would take a passive check/call line all the way to the river for fear of being overflushed. Any flopped baby flush is check/raising either the flop or the turn (likely the flop) and wouldn't show up to the river in this manner. The nut flush would however, since he is so far ahead he has little to worry about.
I don't understand this at all.
Obviously there's a difference in FE between $500 and $1860.
With $500, we have a calling range. With $1860, we don't... after all, we're folding 44.
And hero would and should very often take a check/call line with a baby flush. It has nothing to do with "fear." It's about our ability to get value and build a huge pot with, say, the something like the 7th or 8th nut flush, like 7s6s, and still have the best hand when we're almost 500BB deep. If you check/raise the flop or the turn, are you raise/folding? That sounds horrible. And when villain simply calls, you are building a huge pot oop and could be faced with an all-in decision by the river. I think hero should often take a check/call line here.
I mean, c/r turn to 600 with the 7th nuts is spew, right? When villain calls, pot is 1650 with like 1500 left in stacks. Do you just c/f all rivers?
I think our line is perfect with a baby flush.
And I think the opposite is true about the nut flush. Hero should often raise the flop or turn for value with the nut flush because he can get value, and there's every reason, even oop, to want to build the largest pot possible with the nuts nearly 500BB deep.
I'm not sure you're appreciating the effect of stack sizes. A baby flush becomes a very bad RIO hand very quickly when hero puts in a raise, while the nut flush becomes an opportunity to win a 1000BB pot.