.

I wouldn't put any of those hands in Hero's range as those are all raise or fold pre cards (let alone calling a second time for $55).

It's a bit eye opening that some of the most active posters in this forum treats 400bb game as if it's 100bb.

Going back to the read again: "Villain is an aggressive TAG reg sitting with $2300"

When I see a read like that, I think a competent, smart and winning player.

The marginal cost of bluffing any amount more than pot on river > marginal utility gained (aka FE)

A good winning player will know that there is absolutely no benefit to bluffing this river for anything more than a PSB, and in all actuality, since Hero has a fairly inelastic calling range, V can get away with bluffing as little as 1/2 PSB on the river here as Hero either has a flush/boat or he doesn't. I would expect to get hero called by a TT or 88 type hand just about never after I took a bet/bet/bet line, even if they were 1/2 - 2/3 PSB's as the bottom of my river value betting range is a very thin AK.

first impression is that i agree with bhanson that we can just make a tight fold here based on pop reads and everyone just has it. even the guys who like to get creative on earlier streets tend to just have it when the really big bets go in.

i think it would be a mistake to read too much into flop/turn betsizing here when there is another important piece of data available - that he just piled a million in on the river when the board paired. this is one of those use the new information to update prior beliefs situations imo, where we may say on the flop he has few/no sets but then once we see the river action we have to reevaluate that claim.

in order to go a bit deeper than just folding based on pop reads, id really want to know more about OPs history with this player (i understand that it is very brief), get a sense of how V might view OP, and know why OP perceives V the way he does.

Tight fold?

Everything is relative.

At 100bb, folding bottom FH would be a tight fold, because players are more likely to shove with wider range, and river shove in a 100bb game is likely less than a PSB.

200bb - players' range starts to tighten up when all the money goes in. There are really only 2 combos of AK/AQ that you can beat given pre-flop and flop action, especially if river shove is significant in both absolute and relative size.

300bb+ - you can pretty much eliminate everything that isn't the nuts. In fact, the real tough decision is something like 9x FH, not 44.

In most poker rooms, you can probably count with one hand the number of times someone shoves over 200bb on the river in a week.

Not paying 1860$ to see pocket kings like 80% of the time.

In 2/5 that is.

It's really hard to advise when you gave so few reads on your opponent. Like how wide does he raise multiple limpers preflop from out of position, has he ever seen you make hero folds before, what is his general impression of you, does he only ever bet big with the nuts or near nuts, does he correctly value his hands or over-value them? With the info (or lack of) that you've given, I can't put him just on KK or 99 and thus I call.

How long did it take Villain to jam river once action was on him? Did he announce "all-in" or just slide in his stack? Was this consistent w his earlier bets?

Fwiw where I play decent players will be raising the BB pretty wide here to punish limpers, not just for value. In other words Villain could have anything from AA-air.

Was Tampa running a high hand promotion at the time of this hand? Would KKKK or 9999 have qualified at the momemt?

I play there a bit, and am shocked at the number of folks that will check their set in an attempt to hit the quads high hand bonus.

IF the high hand was in play, it makes it even less likely that he has one of the 7 combos that beat you.

As9, AsA, AsK, could all play the hand just like this. As could QsJs, AsJs.

I am calling quickly, before I think myself into a fold.

results?

The first time pre-flop, we're multi-way with 300x stack odds to call.

The second time, getting 3.4:1 with 50x stack odds.

Not saying we should call with all those hands. But it wouldn't be much of a mistake. And given stacks + position, pre is not raise or fold.

I don't necessarily disagree with the intuitive "fold, 400BB deep, V has to have it" idea. That was my first thought.

However, the spot is more complicated than that. Villain is repping 4 combos. His flop bet sizing is especially strange for those combos. Hero is folding close to 100% of his range, and imo hero's range can often be very weak and even contain a good % of unmade hands here.

I probably do fold in game, but it feels a little weak. I do think V could bluff or value bet worse enough of the time.

True, but when we fear 4 combos, "being right" 40% means villain has to have only a little more than 2 other combos.

Good hand to analyze. Seems like there are two main takeaways:

1) Zeebo's theorem remains true. If I suspect I have a better full house, I will always bomb the river because my opponent won't fold.

2) I will generally bet-fold when I river the underfull OOP against the aggressor.

The river decision is difficult because hero played so passively that neither hero's nor villain's range is well defined (not a criticism, just a statement of fact). If hero bets the river, villain will only raise with a better full house.

Thanks for posting blakeatron.

I think there's a lot of truth to the idea that Zeebo remains true, but it doesn't really apply to this hand for a few reasons. For one, hero's range contains almost no full houses. As villain, do you really put hero on 44 here? 44 is going to be like a insanely small % of hero's range. In fact, in game, as villain, does it cross your mind at all? Zeebo isn't really relevant when full houses are such a small % of a range.

Second, Zeebo can but rarely applies to situations where a villain needs to hold a pocket pair in his or her hand to have a full house. It's far more applicable to situations where villains can have a full houses because of board dynamics and where full houses are more than a fractional % of ranges. While Zeebo is still effective today, it's especially relevant at low stakes vs. passive villains. For example, the flop comes 555, you hold AA. You can often bet bet overshove against a lot of villains, and they call with all sorts of pocket pairs because a) They have many combinations of full houses, and b) They won't fold them even though their relative value is quite weak.

This is no offense to your post, but I think there is a results-oriented theme ITT relating to us knowing hero's hand.

Yes, we have 44, and we know that. But in villain's shoes, not for one second do I think hero has 44; if I do briefly consider it, I would assume it's an exceptionally small % of his range and essentially disregard it as I consider my river play.

I think it's quite ambitious to think Villain is trying to make hero fold a flush here?

Villain knows he isn't getting any value from Asx anyway, so he shoves because you can easily have the nut flush or a smaller flush/K9/44 and nobody is folding any of those hands OTR.

Not calling, don't see how this is an easy call against a TAG. The dude just overbet shoved OTR into a flush/paired board, mhmmmmmm I wonder what he has.

This is live poker also, physical tells? he COULD be bluffing with AsKx or AsAx but seriously would he really try to make you fold a small flush in live poker, who does that.

Yes, the hand dynamics are unique/unusual. I'm saying that if there's a reasonable chance my opponent has a worse boat, I'm going for max value.

If villain thinks hero might call a 1/2 pot bet with something like two pair, flush, etc, then even a less than 33% chance of hero hitting an underfull makes the 2xpot bet more profitable.

It's a bit of a tangent. But for us to have 44 and for 44 to be 33% of our range, that means we have only 9 combos of hands in our total range, and 44 represents 3 of those combos. That's not our range, and in villain's shoes, you would never think to Zeebo shove here.

In this spot, there isn't a reasonable % chance hero has a worse boat.

When hero c/c a monotone flop, c/c turn, and checks a paired river, and I'm in villain's shoes, I'm thinking hero could call a smaller bet some % of the time but will fold to a huge overbet shove well > 80% of the time. I'm thinking hero's most likely hand is a non-nut flush. Makes plenty of sense given the pre-flop call, and post-flop, it makes sense that hero doesn't want to build a massive pot and would take a check/call flop and turn line. Also, there are plenty of combos of non-nut flushes for hero in this spot... what, maybe 12-16 of them?

somebody call the clock.

but seriously, idk. his early betsizing is weak for KK, 99, but he could just be going for pot control 400bb+ deep on the flop and turn. I think you really need some sort of specific read that he can bluff/value bet worse here before calling. also you have a lot of non-nut flushes in your range. I probably fold

100% yes

Idk where all you guys play but where I play people limp/call all kinds of random hands, more so in straddled pots. Does hero limp call 75s? Idk, but It only really matters if V would pay attention and realize whether hero does or does not. So while it's nice that people say Hero's range is super tight and can only be X,Y, and Z, we have no real indication from OP that V knows that or that he even cares

Chill dude. Just trying to help. Don't shoot the messenger.

True: you never labeled hero as TAG.

Also true: you did label villain as TAG, in 2nd line of post... "Villain is an aggressive TAG reg sitting with $2300."

If he's raising pre often enough that you notice it, that contradicts the description (yours, not mine) as villain being tight.

The people saying "his line makes no sense, so call" is the exact reason we can shove the nuts on the river here and get paid. I can't tell you how many times I have seen pure value river overbets that routinely get paid off. I paid them off when I was first starting out at 2/5 because they don't make sense, but the more you see them the more you realize what is going on.

Willy, what purpose would an "aggressive TAG (redundant) reg" have for overbet shoving the river when there is 0 difference in FE between a $500 bet and an $1860 bet here? I disagree that Hero would take a passive check/call line all the way to the river for fear of being overflushed. Any flopped baby flush is check/raising either the flop or the turn (likely the flop) and wouldn't show up to the river in this manner. The nut flush would however, since he is so far ahead he has little to worry about.

20% * $1860 = $372
50% * $500 = $250
60% * $400 = $240

These are just ball park estimates, but the EV of hero calling an overbet shove is higher than a smaller value bet that gets called more often.

Further, the break even % for V betting $1860 is 65%. Trying to make an unknown deep stack fold a flush (or trip 9's) >65% of the time is beyond ******ed.

Yeah, I get your point for this hand. I suppose my takeaways are more general, since we rarely find ourselves in OP's situation at low stakes.

That's an oversimplification. I don't think anyone is saying that.

I think people are saying it's a difficult spot. Like I've said, I would (definitely tank) fold in game for all the reasons you and others are saying, but it does feel weak/tight. The general philosophy for folding here is "he always has it." But I'm not sure that's true. His bet sizing on earlier streets is suspect. His value range is incredibly thin. I think it's very close, and I'd have to admit that part of the reason I would fold is to lower variance.

I don't understand this at all.

Obviously there's a difference in FE between $500 and $1860.

With $500, we have a calling range. With $1860, we don't... after all, we're folding 44.

And hero would and should very often take a check/call line with a baby flush. It has nothing to do with "fear." It's about our ability to get value and build a huge pot with, say, the something like the 7th or 8th nut flush, like 7s6s, and still have the best hand when we're almost 500BB deep. If you check/raise the flop or the turn, are you raise/folding? That sounds horrible. And when villain simply calls, you are building a huge pot oop and could be faced with an all-in decision by the river. I think hero should often take a check/call line here.

I mean, c/r turn to 600 with the 7th nuts is spew, right? When villain calls, pot is 1650 with like 1500 left in stacks. Do you just c/f all rivers?

I think our line is perfect with a baby flush.

And I think the opposite is true about the nut flush. Hero should often raise the flop or turn for value with the nut flush because he can get value, and there's every reason, even oop, to want to build the largest pot possible with the nuts nearly 500BB deep.

I'm not sure you're appreciating the effect of stack sizes. A baby flush becomes a very bad RIO hand very quickly when hero puts in a raise, while the nut flush becomes an opportunity to win a 1000BB pot.