You're setting up a loaded HH for the benefit of bragging.

It's in your previous posting history.

Bragging is the least of my intentions. Think what you will, it honestly doesn't affect the fact that this thread created great content for hundreds of people to see and think about.

Let's try to stay on track and only talk about the hand instead of taking personal jabs, aye buddy?

Like I had posted that there is difference whether "Villain" was in BB or one who straddled, how you setup this HH with images and relevant information would make huge difference in how the hand plays out.

Doesn't matter which player you are in this hand, image matters.

If you are Villain, whether to take the line of 1/2 PSB, 1/2 PSB, then AI depends hugely on if Hero is capable of playing at a higher level:

If Hero is incapable of thinking at a high level, this is obviously a spew. So if image of Hero is one of ABC or just rec fish, then the HH would play out very differently.

On the other hand, if you are Hero, how Villain has played in previous hands that built him up to $2300 obviously is very important. If Villain has been making big bluffs and showing them, or that Villain just has been very active overall, how this hand will play out is obviously, again, very different.

Op, do you take the same line with KxQs?? In all seriousness, how is that different than AxQs on this river? If you believe that KxQs has show down value but AxQs does not, then I'm more ok with your line.

I don't understand how kxQs is ever good when hero x/c twice in this spot. What do we beat?

Well I think there are some sticky nut flush draws out there (that AQ beats as well), but that's a little besides the point.

What's more important is that of villain's non-NFD hands, if KQ beats nothing, then you expect his range to be composed of mostly flushes and the 44 boat and occasional 99 quads. There are only 4 combos of flopped sets by river. There are probably only like 5-8 non nut flushes, and some of the nut flushes should be discounted pre. Furthermore, I'm discounting all flushes a little bit (more than sets) by the passive line... So villain's flush to flopped set ratio might be like 1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1.

My point here is that of the hands you are trying to bluff, about a third of them are 44, and maybe 7% is 99 (maybe even more because I expect the passive 44 to wake up more with a river donk).

You need this bluff to work 65% of the time (against the hands you lose to) to be profitable. You instantly lose 7% from the 99.

So you actually need this to work like 70% of he time against the flushes and boats.

You are definitely not doing better than 50% against 44. I'd say you're lucky to get 44 to fold 25% of the time regardless of what the people here can say about that hand from an objective standpoint. But I'll give you 50%.

That means you've gotta fold out a range consisting of flushes, maybe half of which are the nut flush over 80% of the time for this to be profitable.

Keep in mind there are many many players out there who simply have thresholds for hands that are too good to fold. I'd say at least 25% will never fold the nut flush on a board that pairs the river, except maybe to the nittiest of old man nits.

You will just never get this rate of folding these hands out. It's impossible at 2/5 and I say this from an awful lot of experience and knowing that *everyone* has their "hero" button.

You might argue ok, well it's not likely but there are some Kx hands and hands like TxTs in villain's range. But the problem with that is the more of those hands you give villain, the looser he is and he folds flushes+ even less often.

Really, objectively there is no way this hand is not spew unless you have a lot of history with villain and some really good reads.

Sick hand OP

you sure would of made me fold read less but I wouldn't have the weak tight image this guy had

Zeebo theorem tho.

25% is high, 50% is absurd (I understand you weren't saying that he could get this result but just using numbers for your later calcs). If OP got 10% of the population to fold a FH I'd be amazed. Lest we not forget, the people on his forum make up a small % of the player pool yet represent a large % of the people who would actually fold a FH, and not even all of us were folding

I only read the first page of comments, but this would be a snap call for me. And i'm definitely checking/calling the river to induce a bluff. Maybe i'm a calling station (actually, I kind of am a calling station) but I'm happy with my results at the end of the day. There are only a select few players in my casinos player pool that I fold to in this spot. i would never fold against an unknown.

Losing set over set is a cooler (or boat over boat). Obviously, its fine to talk about coolers, but don't over analysis it and worry about fixing it. A cooler is a cooler because both players played the mathematically correct way and one player got the short end of the deal.

I appreciate your post, its very uncommon for a villain to go all-in for almost 2x pot for 375bb, and i am interested to know the results. but these spots happen so infrequently that I don't worry about them.

Which is one reason reverse HHs aren't allowed. After 280 comments, not much more can be said.

Locked.